Updated July 2020
Stock market predictions
Market crashes are associated with Panic and Fear
One should never panic for as we have repeatedly stated once you panic the outcome is always negative. The long-term chart of the Dow clearly illustrates why stock market crashes are nothing but buying opportunities in disguise. What the masses fail to understand is that when you feel good about investing in the markets, the markets are usually dangerously close to experiencing a massive correction. One has to go against the crowd if one expects to succeed in the markets. There is no such thing as teamwork when it comes to stock market investing; teamwork does not pay and will ensure that you are always rewarded with a solid kick in the head. The masses cannot win as there is not enough money to go around for everyone.
Stock market predictions are a faulty science at best; focussing on the trend is the best option
Experts rely on Panic or Euphoria to sell their faulty stock market predictions
As we have repeatedly stated over and over again, panic is for fools; panic is for individuals who refuse to learn from history and who only love to lose. The same premise applies to Euphoria. What one needs to understand is that there are three phases in the markets; there is a time to buy, there is a time to sell (close your positions), and there is time to sit in cash (cash is a position) or if you are an aggressive trader, you can short the markets.
It is easy to determine what stage of the game you are at with a little practice; we are talking about determining the general stage, narrowing the dates down to a few months and weeks, you need to have a good grasp of mass psychology. The only way to improve your knowledge of Mass Psychology is to understand and accept that fear is a useless emotion. It is one thing to mouth the words; it is an entirely different thing to stare fear in the face and say go away you bore more. Therefore take Stock market predictions with a large grain of salt, for the experts change their tune like a chameleon changes colour.
When there is blood in the streets: buy quality stocks & forget about Stock market predictions
In general, when there is blood in the streets (or markets crash) it is time to buy; you will not get in at the bottom, but in the long run, you will walk away with huge gains. When the masses are euphoric is it time to go into cash if you are conservative. If you are going to short the markets, then you need to improve your understanding of Mass Psychology and trend analysis.
The above chart illustrates that as long as Fiat is in play; all market crashes from a long-term perspective can be viewed as buying opportunities. In future updates (maybe the next one) we will zoom in a bit and look at specific time periods more closely.
Random thoughts on Stock Market Crashes, Panic and Investing
Today everything is interrelated; we do not have free market forces anymore. Everything is manipulated; from the food, you eat to data you are provided. If you are aware of this, you can plan accordingly. Identifying the problem is over 80% of the solution, and this is why most people do not know what to do because they do not understand the problem.
Now you know why we are one of the few websites, if not the only financial website that covers such a wide array of topics that on the surface appear to be unrelated but are in fact, deeply interwoven. Mass psychology is a very powerful tool, and if employed correctly it can help you spot the abnormal levels of manipulation, the masses are subjected to. It would be a good idea to familiarise yourself with the concept of “ Plato’s allegory of the cave.”
If you seek freedom, the 1st task is to attain financial freedom so that you can break free the clutches of the top players who strive to enslave you. They want you to run in a circle like a hamster that runs on a spinning wheel; the hamster thinks the faster it runs the further it will go, but sadly it is going nowhere.
We teach how to use Mass psychology to your advantage, how to view disasters as opportunities and how not to let the media manipulate you and direct you towards actions that could be detrimental to your overall well-being. Visit the investing for dummies section of our website; it contains a plethora of free resources and covers the most important aspects of mass psychology.
Secondly, subscribe to our free newsletter to keep abreast of the latest developments. Change begins now and not tomorrow, for tomorrow never comes. Understand that nothing will change if you do not alter your perspective and change your mindset. If you cling to the mass mentality, the top players will continue to fleece you; the choice is yours; resist and break free or sit down and do nothing.
Stock Market Predictions: Feb 27, 2020 Update
As I am typing, people are dying all over the world. In the time it took me to type this sentence, more than 15 people died. Seventy-eight thousand people have died today, and the number will rise to 80,000 or more by the time you get this update. So far this year 9,500,000 people have died, and that number rises every second. One could state that death is a pandemic, but no one is screaming about that issue. Smoking-related and or Cancer-related deaths could be also classified as a pandemic as more than 16.6 million will die this year from both, and yet no one makes a big deal (9.6 million from cancer and seven million-plus from smoking).
To date, roughly 2860 people have died from the coronavirus, and suddenly it’s the new Black Death. To be clear, we are not making light of the situation, but so much attention is being given to this one agent when compared to other agents of death. Here is an interesting fact; there are twice as many new births as deaths on a global basis. Live data on world deaths, birth rates, coronavirus deaths, etc. can be obtained from here http://bit.ly/32wVaQA
Hence we feel that everyone, including individuals we once thought based their ideas on logic, are pushing out information with one goal in mind; they want to create a stampede, and they succeeded as the masses always fall for the same ploy. The mass mindset refuses to look at the data in a cool manner after the seeds of doubt are sown; it’s just a matter of time before they crack and give in to far-fetched scenarios.
Backbreaking corrections are mistaken for crashes
There is always one backbreaking correction before the end of the bull market as this bull market is extremely unusual in terms of its duration, it will likely experience two such events before dying of old age. The current correction could fall under the backbreaking category.
Backbreaking corrections are always painful; hence the term backbreaking; however, unlike the old days, one can’t tell which correction will turn into the backbreaking event. Look at how many times the market conned the bears over the past ten years into shorting and 90% of those shorts turned to massive losses as the market reversed course just as fast. Even if you have one big home run, it will not cover the 90% lose rate, and more importantly, we doubt that most of the bears had the staying power to hang in there until their bets paid off.
The markets are controlled by machines now, and these machines are programmed to start selling when specific targets are hit, and one selloff selling triggers another set of selling until the cycle ends. The cycle will end, and the markets will rise for no bull market has ended on a note of uncertainty. However, keep in mind these machines are programmed by humans; hence, the only difference now is that instead of humans pressing the sell button, machines are doing it.
The masses are not euphoric, therefore all strong pullbacks and so-called crashes should be embraced. The stronger the deviation the better the opportunity.
Stock Market outlook update July 2020
The markets rally on bad news and explode on any news that offers a small ray of hope. We are definitely in a market that has no real order (the market of “disorder” is the new label for this bull market). However, while on the surface, this might appear discerning it’s actually a good long-term development for it will keep everyone guessing as to where this market is heading.
This is a perfect time to ponder over how you dealt with the so-called end of the world crash that occurred from March to April of 2020. At the Tactical Investor, we repeatedly warned our subscribers that this was a manufactured crisis and that the markets would recover. Fast forward that appears to have come to pass, we are only a few thousand points from the Dow challenging its old highs, while the Nasdaq has already soared to new highs. In the end crowd always losses; remember that the next time the experts state that markets are could crash and burn; the only that goes up in smoke are the egos of these shady experts.
Other articles of interest
America’s 21st Century Energy Story ( Feb 10)