Media lies and Media Tales
What should traders have learned from the Nov-Dec 2018 crash?
There is only one answer really; fear pays poorly. We sent out an inordinate amount of updates during the crash phase, as we did through every crash like phase the market has experienced over the past several years. The reason we did this, was to prove in real-time that giving in to fear is a waste of time, money and good health. Once again the so-called crash of 2018 will have to be labelled as the crash that never was.
One day the market will experience something that will fall under the “crash” category that all the experts have been warning since the inception of this bull. For that to occur, bullish sentiment will have to soar to the extreme ranges and remain in that zone for an extended period.
This Stock Market Bull is unlike other bulls
Long before this pullback, we stated that this bull market would soar to heights that would surprise even the most ardent of bulls, and that prediction has mostly come to pass. Some of the most ardent of bulls started to keel over as early as 2016, and the last strong correction virtually knocked all of them out. So where did they err? Over-reliance on old systems; the paradigm has changed, the players have changed, and as a result, the perceptions have changed. When it comes to the markets; the main driving force is emotions (perceptions); everything else on its top day is secondary at best.
Media Lies To The Masses; Trying To Convince Them That Nothing has changed
This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion. Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one.
The results speak for themselves; the majority of our holdings were in the red during the pullback, but now they are in the black, proving that one should buy when there is blood flowing in the streets. It is a catchy and easy phrase to spit out but very hard to implement, because when push comes to shove, the masses will opt for being shoved. And the Media not any different, in fact, mass media has to lie in order to remain relevant as they have forgotten how to tell the truth.
V readings are still at ultra-high levels
We have alluded to the fact that there is a pattern between extreme weather and market action. Extreme weather usually pushes many people to act in wildly unpredictable ways. Look at animals when there is a sign of impending danger they act strangely, humans are not that different. The only real difference is that humans are not aware of this and tend to blame other factors for this irrational behaviour; this behaviour is reflected in and out of the markets. Violent crimes and or bizarre crimes usually surge during these periods. However, one of the best places to see this type of action is in the markets and the action over the past three months is clear evidence of this.
We have spotted what could turn out to be a new trend between the V-indicator and the Trend Indicator. Our hypothesis:
“Higher (V-Readings) readings, are more likely to ensure that the least probable outcome will come to pass in regards to the markets.”
For example, the least probable outcome from Dec 2018 to Jan 2019 was for the markets to mount a strong rally, but that is precisely what took place. This pattern, if it continues, will provide another level (secondary) of confirmation that this bull market is destined to trend a lot higher than the most ardent of bulls could ever dream of.
Follow the trend for it is your friend, the rest is just hot air and noise