Fills

[froggo]

froggo fills:
28/7/22, sold, MRTN @ $ 21.20

[Triplethought]

froggo fills:
28/7/22, sold, MRTN @ $ 21.20

awesome. I sold at $19.86 and thought it was good. Congrats for your patience!

[froggo]

froggo fills:
28/7/22, sold, MRTN @ $ 21.20

awesome. I sold at $19.86 and thought it was good. Congrats for your patience!

thanks for feedback! I was just following the 30/5/22 market update for MRTN ("Close the position in the 20.40 to 22.00 ranges.") and had set a prior sell order limit using the average of the 20.4/22 range... I normally just follow every latest market update to the T and don't think too much about it

[Centeron631]

As Eric suggested a few weeks ago when i was way down in a WMT jan23 135 call today was up around 33% -for me to be patient as plenty of time to run - thks u on that Eric.

I also bought q fill of the googl jan 23 150 today at the bottom of range suggested in last ai update which belongs in the AI forum of course But i bring this up as what i am questioning is do i hold both in likely a downturn fairly probable in aug followed by a fairly probable Sept/Oct up turn of the Mkt with respect to both stocks? I am more inclined to perhaps grab a profit now on the WMT and run as it is getting extremely close to the strike price while taking a bit more patience with Googl and hold it at least to next run-up in the Mkt in fall as i assume TI was suggesting.

any comments?

[Triplethought]

As Eric suggested a few weeks ago when i was way down in a WMT jan23 135 call today was up around 33% -for me to be patient as plenty of time to run - thks u on that Eric.

I also bought q fill of the googl jan 23 150 today at the bottom of range suggested in last ai update which belongs in the AI forum of course But i bring this up as what i am questioning is do i hold both in likely a downturn fairly probable in aug followed by a fairly probable Sept/Oct up turn of the Mkt with respect to both stocks? I am more inclined to perhaps grab a profit now on the WMT and run as it is getting extremely close to the strike price while taking a bit more patience with Googl and hold it at least to next run-up in the Mkt in fall as i assume TI was suggesting.

any comments?

I'm personally looking at anything green every day and at least considering a sale so I have some cash built up. I grabbed my WMT call profit last week for that reason, even though as you say it isn't as large as we would normally like to see for the higher risk we took. I'm suspending new options trading for the most part. With options you not only have to predict what direction it will run, but exactly how far and when. I don't have that kind of certainty right now.

[LoriPrecisely]

As Eric suggested a few weeks ago when i was way down in a WMT jan23 135 call today was up around 33% -for me to be patient as plenty of time to run - thks u on that Eric.

I also bought q fill of the googl jan 23 150 today at the bottom of range suggested in last ai update which belongs in the AI forum of course But i bring this up as what i am questioning is do i hold both in likely a downturn fairly probable in aug followed by a fairly probable Sept/Oct up turn of the Mkt with respect to both stocks? I am more inclined to perhaps grab a profit now on the WMT and run as it is getting extremely close to the strike price while taking a bit more patience with Googl and hold it at least to next run-up in the Mkt in fall as i assume TI was suggesting.

any comments?

I'm personally looking at anything green every day and at least considering a sale so I have some cash built up. I grabbed my WMT call profit last week for that reason, even though as you say it isn't as large as we would normally like to see for the higher risk we took. I'm suspending new options trading for the most part. With options you not only have to predict what direction it will run, but exactly how far and when. I don't have that kind of certainty right now.

I agree on the Options, I am slowly buying my way out of most of my Puts,
and waiting for a bit of a correction to buy back my last 2 Calls.
As far as selling, I am not selling anything, I am buying. Everything is going up, and hopefully will continue upward for a couple of months, per The TI Sol.

[froggo]

froggo fills:
8/8/22, sold, CYBE @ $ 52.82

[Yodean]

I'm personally looking at anything green every day and at least considering a sale so I have some cash built up. I don't have that kind of certainty right now.

Classic example of retail investor sentiment as Ms. Market climbs a Wall of Worry.

We'll see if one of my favourite stand-alone contrarian sentiment indicators on this forum comes through again.

It's been about 80% accurate ...

Hopefully it's not that other 20% ... I'm pretty heavily invested atm.

[Triplethought]

I'm personally looking at anything green every day and at least considering a sale so I have some cash built up. I don't have that kind of certainty right now.

Classic example of retail investor sentiment as Ms. Market climbs a Wall of Worry.

We'll see if one of my favourite stand-alone contrarian sentiment indicators on this forum comes through again.

It's been about 80% accurate ...

Hopefully it's not that other 20% ... I'm pretty heavily invested atm.

Phhhht. First of all I'm in good company as SOL is worried about an October correction, has relatively few buy recommendations and has set some sell recommendations at a loss (those that trigger based on the S&P index that will result in selling at a loss). Yes, I am selling early. and because CPI came in lower this morning markets are up sharply so anything I sold this week I could have sold better. But it isn't panic. I recognize I'm probably leaving some profit on the table.

I would encourage both of us to define how we calculate if I'm right or you're right. Otherwise we will continue to deceive ourselves. (If I were being snarky I'd say much in the same way you deceive yourself that homeopathic and holistic medicine is effective thru clinical and self experimentation without controls). But with investing It's always possible to look at a period of time that makes you look brilliant or individual plays that do the same. Do we look at % increase year to year? I've lost 13% (unrealized and realized combined) this year which is better than NASDAQ but worse than S&P. Not a great track record. Or results over last 6 months? Do we include in our calculations contributions we made to our portfolios from outside funds when calculating our returns? calculations can get complex. I'm genuinely curious if your wheeling in and out of options generated any real money this year.

So yes I'm 50% out of the market already. and I may pair that back to 60% out. and yes what I'm left with are the "dogs" that are seriously in the red because I have a retail investor bias for not selling my losses. I've made serious mistakes (like over buying Zillow based on a friend's tip and then trying to catch a falling knife got into it with $30K that I've lost a lot of). Zillow may take a long time to recover and maybe I should take my lumps. INTC is negative with $20K invested (pigs get slaughtered) but that one will probably recover in the next 2 years and I may well buy more of it if it goes down in the latter part of this year. But TI's advice isn't immune. I bought CGC and compounded that mistake by buying options on it using double 1/3 lots (pigs get slaughtered). I believe that probably the market will run up some more this month and next (and possibly beyond) but I can't pay attention to it for the next 2 months so it's more of a comfort play than a panic play. and I have $13K in realized gains this year and one never goes broke making a profit.

Plus I'm earning 9% on hard money mortgage loans and 7% on my consumer loans which I view as more secure during troubled times. And I'll probably be buying a small manufacturing business next month so I need cash for that. I talked to a banker and he confirmed there is still a LOT of cash on the sidelines waiting to come in. He says banks don't need any more deposits right now, which is why they won't pay much interest on savings accounts. Look at TREX earnings report yesterday and you'll see building material segment is already laying people off (1/2 of their staff in 1 plant). Similar slashing going on elsewhere.

[bobdylan]

While not an official play, bought PALL at 167 and sold at 209.

[SOL]

While not an official play, bought PALL at 167 and sold at 209.

Congrats on a well-executed trade.

[Yodean]

I would encourage both of us to define how we calculate if I'm right or you're right.

Dude, I'm just messing around. You've been a decent contrarian indicator for me, as well as speculator COT positioning for lumber (for "risk on/off" sentiment), and price action of ARKK as an indication of sentiment in the high growth tech space.

I also use myself as a contrarian sentiment indicator at times, and even the TIT, including the John from Down Under guy. He's predicting some big equity market crash based on Elliott Wave Theory (EWT).

Sure, it could happen - anything could, I mean, you could find Jesus behind you tomorrow, who knows? - but what I do know is when the masses are scared and worried (like now) - both about missing out on a huge rally, or getting stomped by the Hammer of Doom wrt an equity crash - stuff like Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) becomes suddenly very popular.

Essentially, one projects one's feelings unto the EWT charts, and pretty much can come to any conclusion.

I do agree with John that uranium's a good sector to be in, regardless of what happens to the equity markets (full disclosure: I hold a substantial position in URNM).

The future is unknowable - as I mentioned previously, a very WiseMan told me you can't profit by following a prophet - so all we can do is do our best to improve our guessing.

As for a q4 crash - certainly a possibility, not a certainty. There's also the possibility that a Light Swan of some sort (e.g. Ukraine ceasefire treaty, etc.) leads to a ROAR (Rally Of All Rallies). Lots of Dark Swans and Light Swans flying around ...

Risk management, at the end of the day, is the most important determinant of an investor's long-term returns (apart from Lady Luck's favour). That includes managing downside risks, naturally, but one must also look at upside risks.

What I do know for sure (111% certainty): if you feel a bit of a pounding sensation inside your arse, you've definitely got monkeypox, and should definitely get vaxxed ASAP.

[Yodean]

I'm genuinely curious if your wheeling in and out of options generated any real money this year.

Pretty good thus far: started on April 26th/22, the Wheel thus far, to week ending Aug. 5th/22 ---> +$127,122 USD.

I'm using some margin, and total interest costs in that time period for this margin use ---> +25,770 USD.

Of course, my open positions as a group are down a lot, but I accept that this is the way it goes when one has a high beta portfolio. You Dance With Spears, you will bleed. Haven't had to change my lifestyle in any way ...

Learning a bit of proper risk management indirectly and directly from fellow sub Harryg on the side, to reduce the beta a bit ...

[PuppBaby]

I'm genuinely curious if your wheeling in and out of options generated any real money this year.

Pretty good thus far: started on April 26th/22, the Wheel thus far, to week ending Aug. 5th/22 ---> +$127,122 USD.

I'm using some margin, and total interest costs in that time period for this margin use ---> +25,770 USD.

Of course, my open positions as a group are down a lot, but I accept that this is the way it goes when one has a high beta portfolio. You Dance With Spears, you will bleed. Haven't had to change my lifestyle in any way ...

Learning a bit of proper risk management indirectly and directly from fellow sub Harryg on the side, to reduce the beta a bit ...

Haha wow that's wild I cant mess with Margin I'm a firm believer in not owing someone else any many, I realize the potential benefits of it but it makes me very uncomfortable. I have yet to use all of my funds that I can live without so I also cannot justify it that way. Congrats on the good work. I separated my accounts one for stocks which is more or less at break even maybe 1%+ given todays spike up. My riskier option investing account is up over 30% since early this year.

What does a high beta portfolio mean? Is this just how you classify your different portfolios, can you give me other examples.

[harryg]

High beta is a fancy pants way of saying more risky (or to be precise, likely to be more volatile than the 'index').

To take an example off the top of my head, NVDA often goes up and down more than the 'Index' whereas WMT goes up and down less.

No doubt I shall now be struck down with Commentator's Curse and WMT will go bananas.

Simpler example: TQQQ goes up & down 3x QQQ on a daily basis.