Sentiment Indicators

[AstuteShift]

Hopefully, the bullish sentiment would be at ecstatic levels around the 4th quarter, for weeks on end.

If it’s that bullish by then the VIX would be low, making premiums for puts at mouth watering level of cheap. Right now the premiums are too expensive, so no point in buying puts currently imho.

Timing tops is certainly a losers game but timing extreme emotion is the winning part of the equation.

[Centeron631]

Can someone kindly explain the BIG PLAYERs - wonder: Who they are, if they r an organized group with a communication centre and a Board and if so if have a group Name and how long have they been in existence)?

[kcun333]

Good question, one I’ve pondered about many times. A lot of our strategies are based on a nefarious group of global mega -wealthy market shakers that are colluding to control trillions of dollars of global stocks. Don’t doubt there existence, but would be interesting to have more specifics and evidence.

[AstuteShift]

Good question, one I’ve pondered about many times. A lot of our strategies are based on a nefarious group of global mega -wealthy market shakers that are colluding to control trillions of dollars of global stocks. Don’t doubt there existence, but would be interesting to have more specifics and evidence.

Offshore accounts, money flows, etc.

The markets have never been about fairness, it’s all about exploiting the masses with fiat as the main weapon

[chippermon]

Good question, one I’ve pondered about many times. A lot of our strategies are based on a nefarious group of global mega -wealthy market shakers that are colluding to control trillions of dollars of global stocks. Don’t doubt there existence, but would be interesting to have more specifics and evidence.

Case in point. Go to this thread and see Budge's latest response from this morning

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=100&start=600

[Yodean]

Good question, one I’ve pondered about many times. Don’t doubt there existence, but would be interesting to have more specifics and evidence.

This sort of knowledge cannot be spoon-fed. You have to really want to know - a lot of it is somewhat disturbing - and you will never achieve 100% certainty.

Like investing, it can be learned, but it cannot be taught - not really, when push comes to shove.

You also have to put in a certain amount of time and effort - questioning every assumption you ever had about mainstream history.

Most who try this will fail, and go back to her humdrum, mediocre, mainstream existence - nothing "wrong" with this, of course. We all have our paths to walk.

Dudes like AstuteShift, BossNinja, Budge, Symbios, Nicolas, Stefk, as well as a few others, etc. may give you some clues of where to start, but ultimately, you will have to decide for yourself, based on your own independent, critical appraisal of some of the data, of what to believe, as well as your own "fact-checking."

A half-decent place to start is _Divine Province_. It used to be on the TIT's main reading list, but it's been removed. Anyways, it's terribly written from a grammatical perspective, really, but if you start there, and you're willing to put in the work, it will lead you to places you have never been. You'll need to really want it, of course. Not that everything in that tome is verifiably true, of course ... but there's enough there to get you started. _Grand Chessboard_ was mentioned recently - it's pretty good too, in a limited scope kind of way.

BossNinja also mentioned Steven Ransom's and Philip Day's book _World Without Aids_, and it's terrific, whether you agree or not with the authors' conclusions - there's a lot more in that little book than just a discourse on viruses, if you care to read between the lines - and given what's happening these days and what is to come, I think you will find it quite worthwhile to read.

Chomsky's _Manufacturing Consent_ - book or YT video - is also not a terrible way to get started. This one is on the TIT's list.

I won't provide links as those who are really interested will be willing to do the legwork and find those sources.

[kcun333]

Very good information. Appreciate it!

[Budge]

Good question, one I’ve pondered about many times. A lot of our strategies are based on a nefarious group of global mega -wealthy market shakers that are colluding to control trillions of dollars of global stocks. Don’t doubt there existence, but would be interesting to have more specifics and evidence.

Offshore accounts, money flows, etc.

The markets have never been about fairness, it’s all about exploiting the masses with fiat as the main weapon

If you search "financial crime" you'll find a picture of Jamie Dimond, head of JPM. I used to keep count of the billions JPM's shareholders had to pay out for the firm's criminality starting in their silver manipulation days (search Blyth Masters) but gave up after $30bn and that was many years ago. This article shows they've continued their evil ways and seem to revel in it (probably because the sentence never comes close to fitting the crime).

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/01/ ... ny-counts/

JPM is by no means alone and as George Carlin would say: "It's a big club and you ain't in it!"

[bpcw]

“Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes its laws.”

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/give ... y%E2%80%A6

[Yodean]

Investors are more concerned about the outlook for global growth than at any time since the financial crisis in 2008, and they have ramped up their cash holdings to a two-year high, according to a monthly fund manager survey by BofA.

The majority of investors managing about $1 trillion in assets polled between March 4 and 10 now expect an equity bear market in 2022 and allocations to global equities have dropped to their lowest levels since May 2020.

Cash levels among investors rose to nearly 6% while allocations to commodities soared to a record 33%. Hedge funds net exposure to stock markets is at its lowest level since April 2020, according to the survey.

The top crowded trade is long oil/commodities, the U.S. investment bank said in the note, with long technology stocks and long ESG ranked second and third respectively. Nearly half of the investors surveyed expect oil will produce the best returns in 2022.

A net 69% of respondents expect the European economy to weaken over the coming year, the highest share since 2011. The 81 percentage point swing from February's net 12% who still expected to see growth marks the biggest month-on-month drop since BoFA's records began in 1994.

Investors have also slightly increased their expectations for the number of rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2022 even as liquidity conditions have worsened considerably to their lowest since the coronavirus pandemic hit financial markets in March and April 2020.

"This is notable because central banks have historically been much less inclined to hike when liquidity conditions are very poor," BofA said.

A net 44% of European investors expect European inflation to rise over the next twelve months, while last month 38% expected lower inflation. At a global level, a net 5% of investors think global inflation will decline, down from a 13-year high of 56% last month, BoFA said.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-03-15/I ... -BoFA.html

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Some decent sentiment information may be gleaned from this article.

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[Budge]

"Wall Street on Parade" has followed up on yesterday's article about JPM with another.

"That JPMorgan is at the center of yet another trading scandal is an indictment of Congress and federal regulators to meaningfully reform Wall Street." (Yea right. Just means JPM has to increase their contributions to the pols.)

This time they dig into JPM and LME's suspending of nickel trading.

"Traders who feel they were robbed of their profits trading nickel last week at the London Metal Exchange (LME) have taken to Twitter to verbally accuse the LME of favoring their “cronies” and behaving like “slime balls.”"

"Lining up as crony suspect Number 1 are units of JPMorgan Chase who, together, hold the largest number of Class B shares in the London Metal Exchange than any other member. Those units are J.P. Morgan Markets Limited with 25,000 shares; J.P. Morgan Metals Limited with 19,100 shares; and J.P. Morgan Securities with 25,000 shares for a total of 69,100 Class B shares, according to a listing of shareholders on the LME’s website."

"In addition, the CEO of the Hong Kong Stock Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX), which bought the LME in 2012, is Nicolas Aguzin. He joined the HKEX last May after spending 31 years at JPMorgan. Aguzin also serves as a Board Member of the LME, where his bio notes that “from 2013 to 2020, Mr. Aguzin was CEO, J.P. Morgan, Asia Pacific where he was responsible for all the firm’s business across 17 markets.”"

"The reason that both the LME and JPMorgan are taking the heat from traders who say they were “robbed” of their profits, is that one of JPMorgan’s clients – the Chinese nickel and steel producer Tsingshan Holding Group – had secretly built up a massive short position in nickel, using both contracts at the LME and also over-the-counter derivative contracts with JPMorgan and other banks. When the price of nickel began to spike dramatically higher last Tuesday, the banks scurried to try to close out their short positions in nickel by buying back the contracts. That heavy buying pushed the price of nickel to a record $100,000 a metric ton and the banks could no longer afford to keep buying to close their short positions."

"Bloomberg News has named JPMorgan as the largest counterparty to the Tsingshan trades while the Wall Street Journal has indicated that Standard Chartered and BNP Paribas are also involved."

Read the rest of the gory details:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/03/ ... g-scandal/

But then again, this is just business as usual/standard operating procedure....just move along please.

[Centeron631]

as to Big Players thks for ferreting out some of them (here i thought Yodean was the Leader -lol)

Im in a state of flux on all of this. In March 8 2020 update Sol writes "History indicates every correction or crash will resolve as long as fiat is alive" ; a search of the web is full of stories that fiat system is in its final stages and someone if my memory serves may have mentioned on this MU blog somewhere about the potential of that happening. This all seems scary as will not the whole market collapse and disappear including even all of our bank savings and Governments go broke and topple. (will the big player actions be contributing to this and if a collapse will that not destroy their game as well?)

Ive seen reference to safety by buying physical gold wafers (store in a safety deposit box?, gold coins and perhaps realestate (and ive seen some reference to gold-backed cryptos - need to get more info on those?) . Even Gold has had its manipulators apparently https://moneymorning.com/2016/04/27/how ... ilver-fix/

Ive been thinking since yesterday ive got to cash in graranteed savings certificates and gather any saving cash and get gold since i have none.

[bpcw]

If the shtf then they could steal your gold too, might be better in your cellar! Silver coins easier to exchange, depends how much you have to spend, tax (VAT) added in the uk to silver purchases but not gold, don't know about the US.

Also remember that there have been gold bulls out there for decades claiming the end is nigh so buy gold and where's it gone compared to stocks, especially since 2011. Having said that, looks like we're going to hit fresh highs in the not too distant future.

[Yodean]

a search of the web is full of stories that fiat system is in its final stages and someone if my memory serves may have mentioned on this MU blog somewhere about the potential of that happening.

Fiat is going to be around a long, long time ... it'll still be around when your grandchildren are playing with their grandchildren.

King USD may lose a little of its lustre after 2030, but it ain't going nowhere, trust you me. At most, USD will become, after 2030 or so, a bit like the British Pound is today, i.e. Pound lost its global reserve currency status, but it's still kicking around.

A tiny bit of physical gold and silver never hurts, and some cash on hand, in case there's a power grid failure or the internet becomes temporarily shut down, but governments love fiat too much, so it'll definitely be around for at least another 100+ years, most likely in digital form, of course.

[cristiano7subo]

When Cramer says so, you know we are close to the bottom Such a nice sentiment indicator.
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Jim Cramer advised investors on Tuesday to use rallies as an opportunity to sell and better handle volatility in the currently tumultuous market.

“When things look really horrible and we’ve been down for days and days and days, you don’t need to despair, you just need to be more clever. Raise some cash on the up move, and steel yourself for the next decline if either oil prices” or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine becomes more aggressive, the “Mad Money” host said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/15/cramer- ... -cash.html

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Waiting for time to tell that this indicator rarely fails