Sentiment Indicators

[Yodean]

*****

More data for sentiment analysis - a bit of a "risk off" trend atm.

[SOL]

I always felt at my best when almost everyone disagreed with me. When it comes to investing being alone is almost a clear sign that you are taking the right stance. The main goal of the big players is to fleece the small chaps and the only way to do this is to create waves of selling pressure. They have the resources to hold an asset even when it is down 80%, so the only way to ride on their coattails is to follow in their footsteps. Never trade on margin unless you are dead certain you can pay the loan off. Never over-invest in a given position and only use funds you don't need for your survival.

Having said that this is a positive development for uncertainty and fear are the main drivers of a bull market. Uncertainty is far better than fear but hey we can't be picky, both developments indicate that a robust rally is probably in the works. A market climbs a wall of worry and crashes down a cliff of joy. If the markets are going to crash, the masses need to be jubilant, unless the big boys are looking to engineer another crash. This seems unlikely as the memory of the last engineered crash is fresh. So they will probably set in motion the necessary framework to make the masses forth and then the markets will drop

[AstuteShift]

Fear and uncertainty is what the masses crave, that is their religion. Greed is their prayers before they plunge more into the abyss

[Yodean]

[bpcw]

After around a 10% rise in the Nasdaq bullish readings only went up a bit, double that went from bearish to neutral, meaning uncertainty and nervousness which is bullish for TI's!

[AstuteShift]

After around a 10% rise in the Nasdaq bullish readings only went up a bit, double that went from bearish to neutral, meaning uncertainty and nervousness which is bullish for TI's!

Imagine another dip lower, that would scare the living crap out of the average chap.

It feels like 2018 playbook except with more volatility, so perhaps the big top with hyper bullish readings near September timeline.

Fed rate hikes is a non event, I don’t even waste my breath on it since we know what’s up

[Budge]

Read somewhere 70-80% of trades are computer algos.

[SOL]

Read somewhere 70-80% of trades are computer algos.

And the algo's for the most part are programmed to act as their human idiot counterparts. Quant model should be called something that starts with C but I won't complete that word as it's too colourful but I am sure your imagination can decipher what it is.

There is one variant, the big players understand that many experts and novices think buying the dip is the way to go, so they are going to set up everyone for a massive kill in the 4th quarter. Up until the 4th quarter (give or take 30 to 90 days) everyone will look smart but when the guillotine drops the streets will be full of blood and 90% will forget the opportunity that this pullback will provide

[Budge]

Read somewhere 70-80% of trades are computer algos.

And the algo's for the most part are programmed to act as their human idiot counterparts. Quant model should be called something that starts with C but I won't complete that word as it's too colourful but I am sure your imagination can decipher what it is.

There is one variant, the big players understand that many experts and novices think buying the dip is the way to go, so they are going to set up everyone for a massive kill in the 4th quarter. Up until the 4th quarter (give or take 30 to 90 days) everyone will look smart but when the guillotine drops the streets will be full of blood and 90% will forget the opportunity that this pullback will provide

We're in a current "dry run".

[SOL]

We're in a current "dry run".

Dry runs can be profitable provided you understand that they are dry. To answer your question Yes we are in for a very dry run

[weddy]

We're in a current "dry run".

Dry runs can be profitable provided you understand that they are dry. To answer your question Yes we are in for a very dry run

A "dry run" is perhaps an english saying , but i would like to know, as an european, what does this mean?
thx!!!

[Budge]

We're in a current "dry run".

Dry runs can be profitable provided you understand that they are dry. To answer your question Yes we are in for a very dry run

A "dry run" is perhaps an english saying , but i would like to know, as an european, what does this mean?
thx!!!

Sorry for the confusion. A dry run is a precursor or practice run, normally to iron out rough patches and try and get things right. In this case, it's a conditioning process meant to keep investors in a state of panic and off balance.

Remember, in the markets the majority always has to be on the wrong side of the trade.

[Yodean]

BossNinja sez (excerpted from the AITT forum):

*****

The speed at which what we stated in regards to us eventually having to rely on MP one day is coming to pass with frightening speed. I say frightening because we are playing against master MP players also. When you use MP in a negative way, the idea is to create a false narrative that is believable and make the masses assume that is your only game-plan. So the narrative the big players are now creating as most investors keep pumping money into ETF's and the ETF managers keep buying all dips, is to condition the masses that buying the dips is the ultimate game plan. So ETF managers are indirectly forced to become momentum players because as the money pours in they have to put this money to use. Since the technique of jumping into the top players worked they assume it will work all the time. This is where cannon-balling comes in. Once the cannon-balling trends take hold the big players start planning for the big crash. This occurred twice recently. The dot.com bubble and the housing bubble. Read articles from that time and you will see that there is a remarkable similarity to what is occurring now.

Therefore we suspect that our max downside target for the big correction could be conservative. Perhaps the indices could shed up to 45% of their weight before the dust settles. The big one is projected to occur somewhere along the 4th quarter.

*****

[deepthinker]

BossNinja sez (excerpted from the AITT forum):

*****

The speed at which what we stated in regards to us eventually having to rely on MP one day is coming to pass with frightening speed. I say frightening because we are playing against master MP players also. When you use MP in a negative way, the idea is to create a false narrative that is believable and make the masses assume that is your only game-plan. So the narrative the big players are now creating as most investors keep pumping money into ETF's and the ETF managers keep buying all dips, is to condition the masses that buying the dips is the ultimate game plan. So ETF managers are indirectly forced to become momentum players because as the money pours in they have to put this money to use. Since the technique of jumping into the top players worked they assume it will work all the time. This is where cannon-balling comes in. Once the cannon-balling trends take hold the big players start planning for the big crash. This occurred twice recently. The dot.com bubble and the housing bubble. Read articles from that time and you will see that there is a remarkable similarity to what is occurring now.

Therefore we suspect that our max downside target for the big correction could be conservative. Perhaps the indices could shed up to 45% of their weight before the dust settles. The big one is projected to occur somewhere along the 4th quarter.

*****

I read all the articles that were suggested several times over. Then read many of the suggested books in the MP section. I also keep a trading journal. I will be scaling out of plays towards the end of the 3rd quarter but will fine-tune the exit points depending on what my long-term charts are showing and what TA's sentiment indicators are displaying.

If what SOL envisions comes to pass it will make for one bloody good mouth-watering opportunity

[SOL]

BossNinja sez (excerpted from the AITT forum):

*****

The speed at which what we stated in regards to us eventually having to rely on MP one day is coming to pass with frightening speed. I say frightening because we are playing against master MP players also. When you use MP in a negative way, the idea is to create a false narrative that is believable and make the masses assume that is your only game-plan. So the narrative the big players are now creating as most investors keep pumping money into ETF's and the ETF managers keep buying all dips, is to condition the masses that buying the dips is the ultimate game plan. So ETF managers are indirectly forced to become momentum players because as the money pours in they have to put this money to use. Since the technique of jumping into the top players worked they assume it will work all the time. This is where cannon-balling comes in. Once the cannon-balling trends take hold the big players start planning for the big crash. This occurred twice recently. The dot.com bubble and the housing bubble. Read articles from that time and you will see that there is a remarkable similarity to what is occurring now.

Therefore we suspect that our max downside target for the big correction could be conservative. Perhaps the indices could shed up to 45% of their weight before the dust settles. The big one is projected to occur somewhere along the 4th quarter.

*****

Here comes the head fake aka the creation of the false narrative. This is the Dry Run budge was asking about.

So the idea is to make it look like buying the dip is bad but the outcome will prove to be different. So when the markets start to roll towards the 4th quarter the masses will be primed to think hey they said that before and it was B.S. So let's do the contrarian thing and buy and then the real run will begin. MP used in a negative manner is deadly, there is no antidote for the masses. The only antidote is to understand how MP works and then you can see the positive and negative patterns

Investors buying the dip ‘better buckle up their seat belts’

“Buy the dip” has been a headline-making phrase lately. Whether from professional strategists, or in the form of a meme on Twitter, the mantra has inspired an entire generation of investors to go bargain hunting for stocks in the face of a market pullback. Moreover, price action since the onset of the pandemic has generally favored that strategy: every drawdown since the beginning of 2020 has been followed by a comeback to a new high.

But after a dismal start to the year for equities, and amid a backdrop of a capricious Federal Reserve gearing up to tighten monetary conditions and raise interest rates, dip-buyers anticipating consistent rebounds to all-time highs may have to temper their expectations — at least in the short term. The S&P 500 posted a negative return of 5.26% for January 2022 – marking its worst month since the benchmark plunged 12.5% in March 2020 after COVID-19 upended the global economy.

LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick points out that poor January performance has historically been followed by weakness in February. Data collected by LPL going back to 1960 showed that after drops of 5% or more in the S&P 500, February performance has been lower six of the past seven times, with muted returns over the final 11 months of the year. To add to that, February has been one of the worst months of the year for the index since 1950, with only September being worse.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/will-buy ... 46217.html