Interim Update Oct 7, 2022

[Budge]

So true but does the money flow to bonds or other hard assets?

all of them ... at different times ... i.e. maybe a bit to gold 1st, then U.S. bonds, then blue chips, etc., that sort of thing ... even btc ...

or soft oily assets ...

As the Archbishop said to the actress

[Tobeornot]

I have a different perspective in terms of long term investing, before I get to it, TI Team did state there were going to be two corrections this year and scremonini sums it quite well below. So the question that remains is why did most of us not focus on that fact and secondly whey did so many put so much into play when a correction was expected. I think I can sum it up with one word "Greed".

scremonini wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 2:33 pm
Here are my 2 cents. Being in Europe are worth very little so don't pay too much attention.
- We discussed a correction, a relief rally and a stronger correction at the end of the year -
Isn't it what exactly it's happening this year

There seems to be a clear theme here: most individuals feeling pain have not been through previous corrections or have just started to invest. IMHO it is impossible to become a good trader if you have not gone through one gut wrenching correction. Look at Yodean, he admits his portfolio is deeply red and he knows how to take a punch and also walk away with a big score. He is focusing on accumulating good companies. This guy has made millions, so, he knows a thing or two.

My long-term view on investing is best expressed using these two charts
A long term chart of Google from Yahoo charts



If you bought at 2007 you would have paid roughly 18 and if you purchased at the 2008 high, you are looking at roughly 16. The 2008-2009 crash was terrible, but look at Google today.

Now lets look at something boring IYT




2007 high roughly 98
2008 high rougly 98

Before the correction you would be up 183 percent if you bought at the high. I am pretty sure none of us would buy at the high based on what we have learned here. If it was a TI play our average price would probably be in the 55 to 75 ranges.

I don't focus on stops, I focus on great companies and most of the companies we have will trend higher. I know I would be beyond myself if i could load up on GOOGL for 30 to 40 a share let alone the 2007 to 2008 highs. I am down but not out or worried at all because the markets always resolve to the upside over time. Another great trader Mark ( I say great because he speaks from experience) shares my sentiment

Given the money the Fed has printed and will continue to print, stocks will be trading much higher in the years to come. I fully expect to be 200% plus overall, possibly higher in under 3 years.


Other General Observations


TI advocates that individuals keep some money on hand. That they determine a fixed profit target for a portion of their holdings. That they also determine their risk profile. It seems to me that many falsely assumed they could handle high risk, and have now discovered that they are risk profiles fall into the low to medium category.

My humble suggestions

If you are new to options move slowly, several individuals here just jumped into the them
Always have some cash at hand. I building up more by scaling back on some purchases and expenditures. I wanted to purchase a new car, and a few other things. All that is on hold as I think I will make a lot more investing it in the markets.
Spend time to accurately determine your risk profile.

Now, imagine or take the reverse position and place yourself in TI's shoes. It is impossible for them to determine every investors risk category or come with a strategy to suit their needs. We have to take some responsibility for breaking certain rules or falsely assuming the risk we can deal with.

A good friend who came into some money, had 1K shares of GOOGL, 5K shares of AMD, 500 shares AMZN, and few other holdings, he purchased them in 2006 and 2007. He dumped everything in 2008 and 2009. How do you think he feels today?


We all wish we could have got out earlier. But nothing stopped us right. TI’s COVID call was superb and their long term call that the markets would correct this year, was also excellent. Now if we had only focused on the long term call and not the short term call, things would be a lot different. However, it seems we want TI to make every call for us. I think that is impossible.

I am going to learn from this mistake, but I am not selling at all, the lower the market goes the more I will put into the list of companies I rate as top-rated. I plan on making a killing

FYI this is not an attack on anyone, just my observations


Some questions


Yodean what are your thoughts on GOOGL, TSM and AMD. Will you invest equally in them?

Mark what are your favorite three companies

Nicolas: do you think its time to buy Uranium or should I wait a bit longer

SOL what is your personal game plan. Do you plan to short or will you buy more if the markets dip.

[Tobeornot]

all of them ... at different times ... i.e. maybe a bit to gold 1st, then U.S. bonds, then blue chips, etc., that sort of thing ... even btc ...

or soft oily assets ...

As the Archbishop said to the actress

Harry and Budge, you guys sure make things fun.

Here are some stock market jokes. Sadly none of them are mine


Why is a stock market crash worse than a divorce?
Because you lose half of your money but your wife is still there


The Covid 19 Toilet Paper craze was a lot like the Stock Market Crash of 1929
But this time, instead of everyone dumping their stocks, they're stocking for dumps


How is marijuana stock sold on the stock market?
Buy high sell higher.

What's the difference between me and the stock market?
1) My parents are actually invested in the stock market

2) The stock market still has some value

3) People care that the stock market is currently depressed


Chinese man going to work at the stock market..
while dressing up in morning he says
''time for me to go in vest'''

[bpcw]

Excellent post Tobeornot, I couldn't agree more!

[LoriPrecisely]

I have a different perspective in terms of long term investing, before I get to it, TI Team did state there were going to be two corrections this year and scremonini sums it quite well below. So the question that remains is why did most of us not focus on that fact and secondly whey did so many put so much into play when a correction was expected. I think I can sum it up with one word "Greed".

One thing you omitted is the Sept/Oct rally that was forecasted repeatedly.
I don't really want to bring this up any longer, but if you are going to talk about something, please give all the relevant information.

I tailored my portfolio around the expectation of a rally before the fall.

It is over now. It is time to move on and clean up the mess.

[Budge]

or soft oily assets ...

As the Archbishop said to the actress

Harry and Budge, you guys sure make things fun.

Here are some stock market jokes. Sadly none of them are mine


Why is a stock market crash worse than a divorce?
Because you lose half of your money but your wife is still there


The Covid 19 Toilet Paper craze was a lot like the Stock Market Crash of 1929
But this time, instead of everyone dumping their stocks, they're stocking for dumps


How is marijuana stock sold on the stock market?
Buy high sell higher.

What's the difference between me and the stock market?
1) My parents are actually invested in the stock market

2) The stock market still has some value

3) People care that the stock market is currently depressed


Chinese man going to work at the stock market..
while dressing up in morning he says
''time for me to go in vest'''

Woo Hoo! Welcome to the larf club. As the man said: "Laugh it can't get any worse!" So, he did, and it did.

[MarkD]

I absolutely agree with several of your points. My expectation is there will be more M&A activity that will positively inmpact returns for some of the MU/AI/Blazer positions.

Nobody should doubt that risk management is key to LT success. It is the number one issue with stock market investments. Personally, I have ample funds on which to survive and don't require the funds with which I am investing for several years. So I do have a different risk profile (higher pain threshhold) than others.

The ST future is unknown but I have jumped in and out since last winter and have minimized losses on the mutual fund portion of my portfolio. That has not eliminated the losses in the individual stocks, however, when a bottom arrives, the moderate to high risk positions can return triple digits in a short period of time.

Below is a screen shot of an internet mutual fund post 2000. I held an ETF (since closed) going into Y2K and sold tooearly. The performance off the bottom is fairly typical of positions which BECOME THE MOST OVERSOLD. And TI should have multiple outperformers as they are individual stocks which will exceed any index if held for a long enough period or may become buyout candidates or might be 10 baggers. We won't know but the odds favor a group of them will become huge winners.

Patience and experience. Flexibility during adversity.

https://imgur.com/tQAx2qv

[LoriPrecisely]

ALL of my stocks are at huge losses right now.

You win or you learn. Hopefully you're keeping some sort of journal.

What did you learn this year, in terms of trading?

Long-term, those answers will more than pay back all your current (paper) losses.

There is a LOT to learn regarding trading in the stock market.
No one knows the future.
Trust my own inner voice, and act on it without procrastination.
Don't over-trade.

[Tobeornot]

I have a different perspective in terms of long term investing, before I get to it, TI Team did state there were going to be two corrections this year and scremonini sums it quite well below. So the question that remains is why did most of us not focus on that fact and secondly whey did so many put so much into play when a correction was expected. I think I can sum it up with one word "Greed".

One thing you omitted is the Sept/Oct rally that was forecasted repeatedly.
I don't really want to bring this up any longer, but if you are going to talk about something, please give all the relevant information.

I tailored my portfolio around the expectation of a rally before the fall.

It is over now. It is time to move on and clean up the mess.

I don't think I did, the Sept/Oct call would fall under the short term category which I covered in my previous post. The long term call was still for the markets to experience two corrections. May I ask if you were aware that the long term outlook was for two market corrections. If you were aware that the long term outlook called for a correction then perhaps some weight should have been given to this.

I speak to several subscribers via PM and there are several, that sold most of their holdings in Nov and Dec of 2021 and waited for the markets to let out steam before committing new funds. I partially did this, but not as well as these guys. They made a call, I made a call and you made a call. The question is what did we learn from it.

I hope you are also aware that no matter who makes the call short term predictions are much harder, especially in this crazy world where Geopolitical disorder is indirectly responsible for what is taking place. If these insane sanctions were not placed on Russia, the Fed would not need to fight inflation that has been created by supply side factors and the markets would have stabilized long time ago.

One last question. Did you go through the 2008-2009 crash or the covid crash. I ask only because most individuals only understand the value of long term investing after they have gone through one.

Budge makes a good point. Learn from this, keep a journal.

It is over now. It is time to move on and clean up the mess.

The short term rally might or might not come, but its not over unless you only purchased speculative plays. Based on the data posted here, the retail trader is net short, it never ends well for the retail trader. From what I gleaned you sold covered calls, cash secured puts and have shares, so most of them will be trending higher in the future.

In the COVID crash, some of my stocks were down 60 to 70 percent, but I banked some serious gains when the markets came roaring back. Had I sold I would have regretted it. Had I shorted, I would have been dead.

[Tobeornot]

Woo Hoo! Welcome to the larf club. As the man said: "Laugh it can't get any worse!" So, he did, and it did.

And then it suddenly got immensely better.

Clowns don’t invest their money in the stock market simply because they will be the laughing stock.

If you are an investor in the stock market, you must know that this market behaves like a woman. When she goes down, you should buy more.

[jonnyfrank]

I have not made an art or science out of shorting. I am simply applying SOLs philosophy here that the POBs are greedy and will manipulate the markets and data to get their pile of cash and bags of power.

My thinking is who is to say that they can't short hard while they dictate that the markets plummet? If they have that much influence why would they not shoot to make lots of cash going down and then reverse course and make money when the FOAB comes along and ride it up? By doing this, they wipe out the common man and have even more power.

I have come to short on Fridays and often through the weekend. I simply use some of the Direxion 3x short ETFs. I ride the short through the weekend because if you think about it the elites know that the common man is powerless to sell over the weekend and they could be wiped out come Monday AM. My feeling is this is when a military black swan event will happen--over the weekend.

There is not a lot of science in my approach, granted. But I remember the gist of what SOL has said--all of the so-called "experts" will be wrong. That said, perhaps now is not the time to be embracing TA since floors continue to be taken out. The POB can simply stop demand for everything with continued interest rate rises and create a currency crisis beyond Satan's imagination. And let's face it--Biden is not simply senile, he is insane, especially in light of the fact that he is talking about nuclear weapons and armageddon at fundraisers while glowingly talking about his son. As for his cabinet, they are all drinking the same kool aid cocktail of insanity. I am not a spring rooster, and I can tell you I have never seen such a world nor have I seen such denial coming from the general population.

So....this is why I am playing with shorting and using stops to lock in profits as I go. I am sorry I do not have a scientific formula or chart to share, but let's face it-- a lot of the charts being posted are nothing more than farts in the wind 10 days later.

[LoriPrecisely]

I have not made an art or science out of shorting. I am simply applying SOLs philosophy here that the POBs are greedy and will manipulate the markets and data to get their pile of cash and bags of power.

My thinking is who is to say that they can't short hard while they dictate that the markets plummet? If they have that much influence why would they not shoot to make lots of cash going down and then reverse course and make money when the FOAB comes along and ride it up? By doing this, they wipe out the common man and have even more power.

I have come to short on Fridays and often through the weekend. I simply use some of the Direxion 3x short ETFs. I ride the short through the weekend because if you think about it the elites know that the common man is powerless to sell over the weekend and they could be wiped out come Monday AM. My feeling is this is when a military black swan event will happen--over the weekend.

There is not a lot of science in my approach, granted. But I remember the gist of what SOL has said--all of the so-called "experts" will be wrong. That said, perhaps now is not the time to be embracing TA since floors continue to be taken out. The POB can simply stop demand for everything with continued interest rate rises and create a currency crisis beyond Satan's imagination. And let's face it--Biden is not simply senile, he is insane, especially in light of the fact that he is talking about nuclear weapons and armageddon at fundraisers while glowingly talking about his son. As for his cabinet, they are all drinking the same kool aid cocktail of insanity. I am not a spring rooster, and I can tell you I have never seen such a world nor have I seen such denial coming from the general population.

So....this is why I am playing with shorting and using stops to lock in profits as I go. I am sorry I do not have a scientific formula or chart to share, but let's face it-- a lot of the charts being posted are nothing more than farts in the wind 10 days later.

What I am learning right now about shorting is: I can Buy a Put, or Sell a Call Spread.
I might paper trade this first, as I have only margin to do these things with right now.
I like the idea of spreads and Iron Condors and Iron Butterflies.
I am watching a guy who buys Calls and Puts on the $SPX by the minute.
There is soooooo much money in the market, we just have to learn how to make it come our way, rather than let the big guys take it like bullies.

[Yodean]

There is a LOT to learn regarding trading in the stock market.
No one knows the future.
Trust my own inner voice, and act on it without procrastination.
Don't over-trade.

Excellent advice.

[Yodean]

Yodean what are your thoughts on GOOGL, TSM and AMD. Will you invest equally in them?

I'll preface this by saying that I'm not particularly good at assessing individual companies - I don't find it all that interesting.

I do find TrendForce analysis - the narratives behind the fundamentals behind the trends - interesting, and this is where I spend a bit of time, since I enjoy doing this, win or lose.

In terms of technical analysis, I consider myself "half-assed," but would like to think I've improved a lot in the last 2.5 years, so perhaps I am now a "3/4-assed" technical analyst. Adding COT data has helped immensely.

Wrt to Herd Psychology, I think I am decent.

Going back to your question, there was a bit of a discussion on the AITT forum about best assets to own awhile back - I think this was when BTC dropped below 18k and ETH dropped below 1k.

At that time, I posted that the best 6 assets I would (and do) own for the long-term would be, in no particular order: google, tsm, intc, btc, eth, urnm;

some of those have gone down since that post, others have gone up; those 6 i do not worry about very much, long-term; i have large positions in all of them;

the only others I would add to that top 6 at this point (and have been doing so) would be tmf, gld, slv, labu ... as much for a bit of diversification as anything else ... i always feel a bit "naked" without some gold assets ...

[SOL]

Tobeornot wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:54 pm
SOL what is your personal game plan. Do you plan to short or will you buy more if the markets dip.

I don't short very often as the few times I did, it distracted me from the bigger picture. It does not mean I won't short; there are times when everything lines up and shorting can be good.

I have seen some great traders take a beating when it comes to shorting the markets, either because they just overstayed their welcome slightly or they shorted the wrong stocks. It's a lot easier to get the short wrong and even if you get it right, it's a lot easier to get knocked out. Once a bull starts to roar, your short could be in trouble forever. But the opposite can't be said for a long play. You could suffer from extreme volatility but if you are holding a good company, the odds are very high that it will recoup and trade to new highs in the next bull.


Essential game plan: I won't short as too many retail investors are doing it and it could distract me from the big picture. If the market pulls back more, I will buy in lots. I always keep some cash on hand and if the signal is strong enough, I am willing to sell assets I don't need or use up to 90% of the margin available. However, I won't touch the margin unless there is a strong signal and the markets are trading in the insanely oversold ranges. Margin while very powerful when employed during the right times can be deadly when used at the wrong time.