Trend arrow

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Yodean
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Labrador Chart

Post by Yodean »

bpcw wrote: Sat May 13, 2023 10:14 am
harryg wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 6:47 pm
Yodean wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 6:40 pm

The important thing is the dog is looking up, where the markets are likely going?

:lol:
Of course, we can all learn from our Labradors.

Sleeping peacefully under my desk at the moment.

Eternally optimistic, every day is the best day they have ever had.

Everything is fantastic and only likely to get better.

Who needs a Psychoanalyst?
What about when you look back in hindsight and realise you should have dumped your stocks! Now do I want to see this image!
In all seriousness, the Labrador Chart looks like a bit of a Cup and Handle formation ... long-term bullish.
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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Re: Trend arrow

Post by Budge »

bpcw wrote: Sat May 13, 2023 10:14 am
harryg wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 6:47 pm
Yodean wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 6:40 pm

The important thing is the dog is looking up, where the markets are likely going?

:lol:
Of course, we can all learn from our Labradors.

Sleeping peacefully under my desk at the moment.

Eternally optimistic, every day is the best day they have ever had.

Everything is fantastic and only likely to get better.

Who needs a Psychoanalyst?
What about when you look back in hindsight and realise you should have dumped your stocks! Now do I want to see this image!
"Who needs a Psychoanalyst?" Maybe one is needed considering some of the Freudian clues: "hindsight" and "dumped" because it's all as clear as day for the Lab Chartist. The tip of its tail indicates the market high and what has been expurgated from the original is the excrement being "dumped" from the back end prior to a market collapse.

Next "What fundamentalists can learn from the weather rock":

Some examples of the instructions commonly provided for "reading" a weather rock include:

If the rock is wet, it's raining.
If the rock is swinging, the wind is blowing.
If the rock casts a shadow, the sun is shining.
If the rock does not cast a shadow and is not wet, the sky is cloudy.
If the rock is difficult to see, it is foggy.
If the rock is white, it is snowing.
If the rock is coated with ice, there is a frost.
If the ice is thick, it's a heavy frost.
If the rock is bouncing, there is an earthquake.
If the rock is under water, there is a flood.
If the rock is warm, it is sunny.
If the rock is missing, there was a tornado.
If the rock is wet and swinging violently, there is a hurricane.
If the rock can be felt but not seen, it is nighttime.
If the rock has white splats on it, watch out for birds.
If there are two rocks, stop drinking, you are drunk.
Weather rocks will also sometimes include rules for proper maintenance of the system such as, "Please do not disturb the weather rock, it is a finely tuned instrument!"

Later, we'll have a session on forecasting your life expectancy from cloud formations.
..whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government..
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qqq

Post by Yodean »

Image

*****

-this one's interesting (for QQQ) - besides the usual support levels and lines, it has significant "news divergent events" relative to price action (i.e. on the "news failure" labels, one would have expected prices to close down, not up);
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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Re: qqq

Post by Budge »

Yodean wrote: Tue May 16, 2023 8:12 pm Image

*****

-this one's interesting (for QQQ) - besides the usual support levels and lines, it has significant "news divergent events" relative to price action (i.e. on the "news failure" labels, one would have expected prices to close down, not up);
Lack of faith in bankers and some of billions of deposit withdrawals finding a new home?
..whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government..
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Re: qqq

Post by Yodean »

Budge wrote: Tue May 16, 2023 8:27 pm Lack of faith in bankers and some of billions of deposit withdrawals finding a new home?
Entirely possible. I try not to poison my mind with too many "funny-mental" (fundamental) ideas when attempting to guess what Ms. Market is going to do next.

:lol:
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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positioning

Post by Yodean »

Image

Image
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Re: Trend arrow

Post by MarkD »

Looks like a bottom.
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Re: Trend arrow

Post by deepthinker »

MarkD wrote: Sat May 20, 2023 2:50 am Looks like a bottom.
Or maybe short term top and then a move up. Anyone considering selling in May and going away?
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Re: Trend arrow

Post by Budge »

deepthinker wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 9:46 pm
MarkD wrote: Sat May 20, 2023 2:50 am Looks like a bottom.
Or maybe short term top and then a move up. Anyone considering selling in May and going away?
Nope
..whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government..
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Re: Trend arrow

Post by chippermon »

Budge wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 12:17 am
deepthinker wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 9:46 pm
MarkD wrote: Sat May 20, 2023 2:50 am Looks like a bottom.
Or maybe short term top and then a move up. Anyone considering selling in May and going away?
Nope
So far price action tells me no. I may change my mind in June.
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Re: Trend arrow

Post by Yodean »

deepthinker wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 9:46 pm Or maybe short term top and then a move up. Anyone considering selling in May and going away?
Image

The above data doesn't seem to favour the traditional "sell in may, go play."

With that said, i'm on the lookout for some type of Judas Sell Signal in mid-late June/early July or so (i.e. interim top).

Judas strikes quickly from the shadows, so may be difficult.
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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Re: Trend arrow

Post by Yodean »

Image
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Re: Trend arrow

Post by jlhooter »

Yodean wrote: Sun Jun 04, 2023 11:20 pm Image
Yodean can you help explain this a bit?
Just because 95% is doing it doesn't make it right
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Re: Trend arrow

Post by Yodean »

jlhooter wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:49 am
Yodean wrote: Sun Jun 04, 2023 11:20 pm Image
Yodean can you help explain this a bit?
I'd focus on the top four lines. SPX, Nasdaq, Dow, Russell, VIX. Shows how relatively short or long speculators are atm, and how they've changed between weeks. You can view it as a derivative of cftc cot data.

So as an example, it shows that despite recent price action, speculators are still relatively short (bearish) SPX and Dow - now, keep in mind the table is from one or two weeks ago (to get more recent data, you'd have to get last week's cftc cot, or derivative thereof).

Latest data in fact showing speculators have increased shorts in Russell and SPY, but decreased their shorts in Dow; speculators can be right for a time (trend-following), but at big turning points tend to be really wrong.

You could view it as a form of sentiment data, but based on actual positioning (real money), vs. just survey data (opinion).

On its own, it's not enough to be profitable, but needs to be combined with other forms of analyses, and specific modes of execution when it comes to trading off this data.

Does help establish good risk-reward asymmetry when used carefully.
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Re: Trend arrow

Post by jlhooter »

Yodean thanks. Crystal clear now and like the comment around "big turning points."

Is the meaning of z-scores another way of saying all data is normalized to one another?
Just because 95% is doing it doesn't make it right
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