Interim Update Oct 7, 2022

[Budge]

The bigger question is what is going to stop the dollar in the next 3 months? I am using actual timeframe instead of the ambiguous "short term" and "long term" parachute language. I think we should all start doing this for the sake of better communication.

The short answer - the USD moves as the Fed wishes.

Since I'm a bit evil like the Fed, I tend to think I can guess a bit of what the Fed is thinking - I wouldn't let the USD get above 115 or so for very long - Triffin's dilemma and all that, in the time frame you mentioned.

The rest of the world is USA's vassals/slaves/servants, atm, but America - as the top dog - doesn't want to kill her slaves, just whip and torture them occasionally so they behave.

USD is the whip - but if it goes too high, you're gonna kill your slaves. USD 90 - 115 is a decent "whipping" zone.

Not sure they'll be able to hold it <115

[jonnyfrank]

We are all still waiting for the bond "up" volatility, lol.

[Yodean]

We are all still waiting for the bond "up" volatility, lol.

It's coming ... U.S. bonds are just "delayed USD," so if you believe in the USD Milkshake/Black Hole, capital will eventually flow into U.S. bonds.

[Budge]

We are all still waiting for the bond "up" volatility, lol.

It's coming ... U.S. bonds are just "delayed USD," so if you believe in the USD Milkshake/Black Hole, capital will eventually flow into U.S. bonds.

Capital may flow through bonds but not even sure of that. It requires full faith and credit in the administration running things. Do we feel confident in the current shit show? Let me fink for just a nanosecond.

[Yodean]

Capital may flow through bonds but not even sure of that. It requires full faith and credit in the administration running things. Do we feel confident in the current shit show? Let me fink for just a nanosecond.

The thing is, the USA, for all its problems, is still in better shape than all the other countries.

UK? lmao.

Italy? lmao.

Russia? rofl.

China? rofl.

Germany? lmao.

France? lmao.

Etc.

[Budge]

Capital may flow through bonds but not even sure of that. It requires full faith and credit in the administration running things. Do we feel confident in the current shit show? Let me fink for just a nanosecond.

The thing is, the USA, for all its problems, is still in better shape than all the other countries.

UK? lmao.

Italy? lmao.

Russia? rofl.

China? rofl.

Germany? lmao.

France? lmao.

Etc.

So true but does the money flow to bonds or other hard assets?

[Yodean]

So true but does the money flow to bonds or other hard assets?

all of them ... at different times ... i.e. maybe a bit to gold 1st, then U.S. bonds, then blue chips, etc., that sort of thing ... even btc ...

[harryg]

So true but does the money flow to bonds or other hard assets?

all of them ... at different times ... i.e. maybe a bit to gold 1st, then U.S. bonds, then blue chips, etc., that sort of thing ... even btc ...

or soft oily assets ...

[scremonini]

Here are my 2 cents. Being in Europe are worth very little so don't pay too much attention.

- We discussed a correction, a relief rally and a stronger correction at the end of the year -

Isn't it what exactly it's happening this year?

The relief rally was more like a little fart and that occurred in early August.
For the last 20 days the markets derailed more abruptly then in previous months and put in lower lows.

Are we really convinced there will be a relief rally before an even stronger drop?
Would it make sense for the big players to give the masses an opportunity to get out?
The biggest opportunity would be to strangle them right here and right now.
What kind of good news would light up a strong rally that would then disappear after a few weeks?
Instead it seems to me that the current correction is the best opportunity to push this market in panic mood.

All retail investors are knee deep in it, particularly us who are all over invested in tech / Nasdaq, no energy plays no boring big caps in sectors that didn't get hit quite as hard.
Jeff B, Elon M and others at the TOP have sold shares this year. They just wish lower lows..

If the plot scheme narrative should hold true, the best opportunity it to keep pushing it down which we absolutely agree would create the FOAB chance. However, at least in my case, should be better labeled as the FOAB miss since fire powder is scarce..

By all means this isn't a criticism to TI, instead I just find it very ironic that what was widely anticipated is unveiling with pretty good accuracy. My consideration is that we have been too greedy. We could have sold the most speculative positions at a loss in January, taking a cautions approach to sit on the sidelines with more capital as 2 wild corrections were more than expected this year.

We didn't think mid-term (<12months), jumping in too many new plays, speculative plays and option plays without a single hint of shorting with 9/12 month options when it was stated all along the high chances predicted around a FOAB. A FOAB can only appear after a FOAS - father of all short
And as a matter of evidence 2022 recorded the highest volumes in history of Short positions.

Fingers crossed this is all wrong, we experience a bigger fart that catches flames and triggers a strong relief rally so we can jump out and jump back in..

[jonnyfrank]

I have been cautiously shorting and it is working, as I agree with much of what you said. I don't hold out a lot of hope for the upcoming CPI numbers based on my personal experience with price increases last month. The markets and PTB are looking for any and all reasons to subdue the common man, and nest eggs are vulnerable.

[LoriPrecisely]

Here are my 2 cents. Being in Europe are worth very little so don't pay too much attention.

- We discussed a correction, a relief rally and a stronger correction at the end of the year -

Isn't it what exactly it's happening this year?

The relief rally was more like a little fart and that occurred in early August.
For the last 20 days the markets derailed more abruptly then in previous months and put in lower lows.

Are we really convinced there will be a relief rally before an even stronger drop?
Would it make sense for the big players to give the masses an opportunity to get out?
The biggest opportunity would be to strangle them right here and right now.
What kind of good news would light up a strong rally that would then disappear after a few weeks?
Instead it seems to me that the current correction is the best opportunity to push this market in panic mood.

All retail investors are knee deep in it, particularly us who are all over invested in tech / Nasdaq, no energy plays no boring big caps in sectors that didn't get hit quite as hard.
Jeff B, Elon M and others at the TOP have sold shares this year. They just wish lower lows..

If the plot scheme narrative should hold true, the best opportunity it to keep pushing it down which we absolutely agree would create the FOAB chance. However, at least in my case, should be better labeled as the FOAB miss since fire powder is scarce..

By all means this isn't a criticism to TI, instead I just find it very ironic that what was widely anticipated is unveiling with pretty good accuracy. My consideration is that we have been too greedy. We could have sold the most speculative positions at a loss in January, taking a cautions approach to sit on the sidelines with more capital as 2 wild corrections were more than expected this year.

We didn't think mid-term (<12months), jumping in too many new plays, speculative plays and option plays without a single hint of shorting with 9/12 month options when it was stated all along the high chances predicted around a FOAB. A FOAB can only appear after a FOAS - father of all short
And as a matter of evidence 2022 recorded the highest volumes in history of Short positions.

Fingers crossed this is all wrong, we experience a bigger fart that catches flames and triggers a strong relief rally so we can jump out and jump back in..

I think you pegged it exactly.
I assume all of us on this forum are in a similar situation as you are as far as portfolio positions and no cash left. I am.
So, now I have to learn how to short?!

[harryg]

Of course it would have been nicer (much nicer) to sell into a good rally, but it's not necessary is it?

I repeat the below, because it's something I believe in 100%.

What really matters is the long-run distribution of outcomes from your trading techniques, systems, and procedures. But, psychologically, what seems of paramount importance is whether the positions that you have right now are going to work.

Two of the cardinal sins of trading - giving losses too much rope and taking profits prematurely are both attempts to make current positions more likely to succeed to the detriment of long-term performance.

William Eckhardt, New Market Wizards

[LoriPrecisely]

Of course it would have been nicer (much nicer) to sell into a good rally, but it's not necessary is it?

I repeat the below, because it's something I believe in 100%.

What really matters is the long-run distribution of outcomes from your trading techniques, systems, and procedures. But, psychologically, what seems of paramount importance is whether the positions that you have right now are going to work.

Two of the cardinal sins of trading - giving losses too much rope and taking profits prematurely are both attempts to make current positions more likely to succeed to the detriment of long-term performance.

William Eckhardt, New Market Wizards

ALL of my stocks are at huge losses right now.
I had no stops in place.
I now know I should have had mental stops on my calls as well.

[Yodean]

So, now I have to learn how to short?!

Uhhhh ... I'd be careful here. Call me an old curmudgeon, but you should prolly get a couple of years of trading experience under your belt - at least - before you attempt shorting.

Word on the street is that a lot of retail investors are currently shorting the markets - they made a lot of $$$ in '20 - '21, then lost it all, and more, this year. This pisses them off, so now they're trying to make it all back quickly, by "shorting the markets."

We know how this kind of story generally ends:

[Yodean]

ALL of my stocks are at huge losses right now.

You win or you learn. Hopefully you're keeping some sort of journal.

What did you learn this year, in terms of trading?

Long-term, those answers will more than pay back all your current (paper) losses.