SOL wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 7:47 am
For example, it appears that Putin falsely believed that the Russian army was in the state he envisioned. He envisioned this state because of the money he had allocated for the armed forces, but corruption is so endemic that much of this money did not reach its final destination. False reports were sent that all was well and going according to plan, but in reality, the generals, colonels, etc., stole this money and sent it to Europe. One mid-level officer, embezzled millions, and his entire family was living a cushy life in Europe, and this was only one small pawn. Imagine the big players.
If this data from the ground is valid, it is very bad because it means that after realising, his army might not be in the shape he thought it was, and God forbid the situation worsens, pressing the red button might be his only option to save face. It is death when you are a big Guy in Russia and show signs of weakness.
Russia is an ossified kleptocracy (a phrase I stole from fellow sub Scott), and those lower on the totem pole tend to lie to their superiors - generally reporting more positive results since they don't want to be blamed or scapegoated by their bosses. Same thing in CCP - PLA (People's Liberation Army) is a joke.
Sh*it rolls downhill ...
With that said, Russian Federation's almost won - it finally started, like any self-respecting invader, bombing energy infrastructure, disrupting water supply, etc. Fairly boring, classic military tactics, but effective.
Putin's an idealist at heart - since the blood of Russians runs in many Ukrainians, he thought he could minimize Ukrainian civilian casualties by a "show of force" (e.g. line of tanks slowly heading towards Kyiv), and not targeting the power grid, water supply, and communications networks.
Well, this is a Game of Thrones in real time - you win or you die, there is no middle ground.
Ukraine military is mostly broken - apparently 100k Ukrainian soldiers or more may already have been killed, with roughly twice that number or more significantly injured.
Their military equipment is running out of fuel.
On the Kyiv side, the only credible military threats remaining: 1) a group of well-trained, mostly Polish soldiers; 2) "Foreign Legion," basically mercenaries from a bunch of countries combined into an experienced fighting unit;
Russian Federation also hasn't thrown its best stuff out there yet. Kharkiv and Odessa will be re-taken at some point, at a minimum.
Also, Putin's never publicly said he would support the use of nuclear weapons - he only mentioned them when he was asked what he would do if the West attacked with tactical nukes - i.e. Putin's basically saying he won't use nukes unless the West uses them first.
I believe him.
However, look for a CIA-induced false flag attack as a potential possibility, that is blamed on Vlad.
The following is quite good:
https://youtu.be/8I0bfEGtHeY?t=20
