deploying outside price range - strict limits?

[Budge]

Just catching up on lots of missed subjects. I try and avoid any fundamental analysis and go with the charts. My quick and dirty on ETHE.
Monthly: broke through support (S) about $23. Could drop to 14.5 even single digits.
Week: going down S at 15.
@10:25

You're gonna scare Escargot with this kind of post.

Cryptos are super-volatile, so pretty much anything can happen.

I find that with cryptos in general, outside of BTC perhaps, Technical Analysis (TA) is not that accurate, especially during periods of extreme sentiment readings (either super-bearish, like now, or during euphoric phases or "risk on" periods).

I rely more on sentiment indicators for crypto at times like now, like my li'l EBI and Peter Schiff:

*****

Schiff believes that now that Bitcoin and the crypto market in general are plummeting, along with the stocks of companies working in the blockchain sphere, the whole crypto industry will be exposed as a "malinvestment."

Tweet:

#Bitcoin, #crypto, & #blockchain related stocks are getting decimated. Many of these companies will go bankrupt as the entire industry is exposed as malinvestment. Mass layoffs will result in mass selling of crypto as unemployed workers raise cash to pay soaring household bills.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 5, 2022

In early January, Schiff expressed the view that the global leading cryptocurrency is likely to collapse below the $30,000 support.

Back then, Bitcoin was trading at the $35,000 level.

Now, that BTC has been hit by the recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve by half a basis point (the highest rise in 22 years), the price has fallen to the $36,362 zone.

https://cryptonews.net/en/6121069/

*****

_Usually_, when Peter's anti-crypto Tweets start making it to financial media, BTC and ETHE are starting to bottom ...

All is cyclical all is fractal.

Let's hope your contraindicator isn't a stopped clock this time. I'd be more impressed if it was Jim Cramer you were using. Just looked at BTC futures:
Month - when it broke 41400 support it opened the way to a fall below 30
Week - drops to 34
Day - down but that's already built in today.

Now, I should warn you I did once stay at a Holiday Inn.

[chippermon]

Just catching up on lots of missed subjects. I try and avoid any fundamental analysis and go with the charts. My quick and dirty on ETHE.
Monthly: broke through support (S) about $23. Could drop to 14.5 even single digits.
Week: going down S at 15.
@10:25

You're gonna scare Escargot with this kind of post.

Cryptos are super-volatile, so pretty much anything can happen.

I find that with cryptos in general, outside of BTC perhaps, Technical Analysis (TA) is not that accurate, especially during periods of extreme sentiment readings (either super-bearish, like now, or during euphoric phases or "risk on" periods).

I rely more on sentiment indicators for crypto at times like now, like my li'l EBI and Peter Schiff:

*****

Schiff believes that now that Bitcoin and the crypto market in general are plummeting, along with the stocks of companies working in the blockchain sphere, the whole crypto industry will be exposed as a "malinvestment."

Tweet:

#Bitcoin, #crypto, & #blockchain related stocks are getting decimated. Many of these companies will go bankrupt as the entire industry is exposed as malinvestment. Mass layoffs will result in mass selling of crypto as unemployed workers raise cash to pay soaring household bills.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 5, 2022

In early January, Schiff expressed the view that the global leading cryptocurrency is likely to collapse below the $30,000 support.

Back then, Bitcoin was trading at the $35,000 level.

Now, that BTC has been hit by the recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve by half a basis point (the highest rise in 22 years), the price has fallen to the $36,362 zone.

https://cryptonews.net/en/6121069/

*****

_Usually_, when Peter's anti-crypto Tweets start making it to financial media, BTC and ETHE are starting to bottom ...

All is cyclical all is fractal.

Let's hope your contraindicator isn't a stopped clock this time. I'd be more impressed if it was Jim Cramer you were using. Just looked at BTC futures:
Month - when it broke 41400 support it opened the way to a fall below 30
Week - drops to 34
Day - down but that's already built in today.

Now, I should warn you I did once stay at a Holiday Inn.

Yeah, I don't know. BTC made a critical move below 37700 today with relative ease. It's been bouncing off that level a few times. I do not see good things ahead. I thinking 29717. I'm just talking about the dailies. The weekly....well, you don't want to know. (20000). Couldn't resist. Especially if there is continued pressure from the equities. Distinct possibility.

ETH seems to be fighting the main crypto trend. Sort of. It doesn't suck as much. But with a strong enough move in BTC and equities I fear it could get dragged along.

[Yodean]

Yeah, I don't know. BTC made a critical move below 37700 today with relative ease. It's been bouncing off that level a few times. I do not see good things ahead. I thinking 29717. I'm just talking about the dailies. The weekly....well, you don't want to know. (20000). Couldn't resist. Especially if there is continued pressure from the equities. Distinct possibility.

Trying to predict crypto. action in the near-term in the best of times is pretty difficult, to put it mildly, not to mention now. But it's fun!

With that said, my 2c:

-Li'l EBI (Experimental Bitcoin Indicator) hit a MOAB, w/ a whopping 92%buy/8%sell signal, this weekend. It hasn't flashed this signal in a very long time.

-BTC hitting a granite zone of support in the 28k - 32k region. Should bounce, or consolidate in or above this zone.
Anything below 25k will be a FOAB. This doesn't include intraday spikes below aforementioned levels that "close" above.

[Budge]

Yeah, I don't know. BTC made a critical move below 37700 today with relative ease. It's been bouncing off that level a few times. I do not see good things ahead. I thinking 29717. I'm just talking about the dailies. The weekly....well, you don't want to know. (20000). Couldn't resist. Especially if there is continued pressure from the equities. Distinct possibility.

Trying to predict crypto. action in the near-term in the best of times is pretty difficult, to put it mildly, not to mention now. But it's fun!

With that said, my 2c:

-Li'l EBI (Experimental Bitcoin Indicator) hit a MOAB, w/ a whopping 92%buy/8%sell signal, this weekend. It hasn't flashed this signal in a very long time.

-BTC hitting a granite zone of support in the 28k - 32k region. Should bounce, or consolidate in or above this zone.
Anything below 25k will be a FOAB. This doesn't include intraday spikes below aforementioned levels that "close" above.

Looking at the futures, it just dropped to 33095 (4:30am) and it's popped on the 1, 5 min chart. I see it contained by the upper BB (Bollinger) at 33.6/33.7 on the 10 min. On the 15 min not getting beyond 33.75, not yet anyways.

Let's go out further, 4 hour chart, daily, weekly = f'ugly, f'ugly and f'ugly. Monthly just ugly, even pulled up quarterly (I know not alot of data points) but MACD rolling over.

Not sure how short your time scale is but I think you'll get a better entry point by waiting (and in my case, I don't short-term trade anymore, I'll watch it from afar ).

Bon chance.

[Yodean]

Not sure how short your time scale is but I think you'll get a better entry point by waiting (and in my case, I don't short-term trade anymore, I'll watch it from afar ).

Not adding too much more - I'm already loaded up to slightly beyond my personal max allocation in terms of cryptos in my portfolio (>15%), so that money (dead or alive) is already "in the middle." I may be crazy, but not insane.

https://youtu.be/seQgisZujc0

[AstuteShift]

I’ve been looking at extreme overbought stocks to get on puts, long the tech sector

Eventually the market will rally furiously, timing bottoms is for fools. I’d rather be early at the station than missing it

[harryg]

I’d rather be early at the station than missing it

Personal bias aside (I'm rather long), this is most likely the number #1 problem faced by inexperienced investors. They wait and wait to get in, then it's too late.

So they watch it go up and wait for the next drop. And so on.

That said, some respite would be welcome. I'm getting low on vodka

[SOL]

Most of us at TI tend to buy early as it is always easy to say well i could have bought it at that price, Fast forward to real-time and see how often that becomes reality. Less than 10% of the time. On average we are down 35% from the highs of 2021, so we do have skin in the game. And like Harry stated we would also love some respite as we are human after all and I for one and running low on liquor.

In retrospect, one can say I could have bought this and that and I have heard this for years but the same people that state that they could have done this or would have done that better the next time around, did nothing or took action that made the outlook worse. I too was once like that, living in the past and thinking well if just had done that or if had seen this pattern or that I could have done this or that. However, luckily I decided to study other great investors and decided to stand on their shoulders as opposed to being crushed by someone's boot. And when I took that approach I realised it was impossible to get in at the best possible price, if that did happen it was pure luck. I also found out that those that waited for the best possible price kept waiting until the end.

The COVID crash was rapid and fast and things turned around. This is a brutal slow mind-numbing correction designed to destroy the mindset of investors for years to come. This has to be done because the big players intend to through more than 5 trillion into this market so they need a good excuse. Many stocks are now trading at levels they did during the covid crash of 2020.

Having said that this is the best time to maintain a trading journal

One thing to remember if you bought some of the top stocks during the top of the internet bubble you would still have still done well in the years to come. If you bought those stocks at a similar level to where we opened positions in most of our current plays, you would have made out like a bandit.

This volatility is being created for the sole purpose of destroying the mindset of the average investor so that they can unleash the next QE program which will dwarf the 5 trillion Covid program

[Yodean]

This volatility is being created for the sole purpose of destroying the mindset of the average investor so that they can unleash the next QE program which will dwarf the 5 trillion Covid program

Indeed, it appears to be working quite well atm. That gap (monthly) on the NDX was filled today.
I suspect a choppy, highly volatile few weeks ahead, with lots of bounces and drawdowns.

I think markets will most likely trade in a wide, range-bound kind of manner, until the Fed gives hints of pivoting.

All my personal sentiment metrics for extreme bearishness have been triggered - every single one, the last few weeks, multiple times. We'll see soon if this means anything.

I think to be a good investor-trader, besides all the qualities that have been mentioned previously, one needs to have a short memory - learn whatever lesson there is to learn, if any, improve where possible, and quickly move on.

You don't want to let your PTSD feelings from previous poor trades cloud your judgement.