Something to keep an eye on is the French presidential election on April 10th and 24th, which may not turn out to be a walk in the park for Macron.
Here are the latest polls for the top 5 candidates:
Macron is losing ground. He's facing a scandal about his reliance on consulting group McKinsey and the opacity of the cost of all this for the taxpayer. Plus the discontent about the increasing cost of living.
Both Le Pen (far right) and Mélenchon (far left) have strong momentum. Interestingly, both are traditionally seen as pro-Putin (
though I'm not aware of their respective positions on the Ukraine conflict as I wasn't paying attention to this election.)
It's extremely uniquely that Macron won't be in the second round (the top 2 candidates after the first round on April 10th qualify for the second round held on April 24th), but the probability is not zero either, especially considering:
- Abstention is expected to be significant (moderate voters abstain, not those who will vote Le Pen or Mélenchon.)
- Covid cases have started ramping up again, and some people have said they're scared to go vote if masks are not mandatory again (this disproportionately affects Macron voters, go figure
)
- On the other hand, re-introducing restrictions days before an election would be a dangerous move for Macron and a gift to his opponents.
In a second round between Macron and Le Pen, Macron polls ahead with 53% to 47%, but with an error margin of 2.8, and they're converging.
If she pulls this off, Le Pen beating Macron would be a major signal and a political seism in France and probably in the West. Like a big middle finger given to the globalist narratives.
Arguably it would carry more weight than Trump's election, as he was running as the candidate for the Republican party. However, Le Pen's party, Rassemblement National, is not a "party of government". It's barely a respectable party.
While they regularly win some mayoral elections and can get a few seats at the Assemblée, they cannot possibly get a majority because of the way the system has been designed to favor the two main parties of the center-right and the center-left. No traditional party would agree to an alliance with the RN either.
That's why the symbol would be larger than her actual ability to affect change in the country. She would have to choose her Prime Minister among the majority party (likely a globalist from the center-right establishment.) When President and PM are from opposing camps, it's called "cohabitation", and it's the PM who drives the political decisions. The President smiles for the camera and signs everything (like Chirac did from 1997 to 2002 when Jospin and the socialists ran the country.)
Plus, the country has to obey all decrees from the European Commission, so there's little sovereignty left anyway. That is unless she calls a referendum for France to leave the EU. But that remains to be seen, as she's served as a form of controlled opposition on these topics for years.
