How to store your cryptos?

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Budge
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Re: How to store your cryptos?

Post by Budge »

AstuteShift wrote: Wed Nov 10, 2021 1:52 pm
Budge wrote: Wed Nov 10, 2021 1:47 pm
SOL wrote: Wed Nov 10, 2021 1:40 pm One should stick with what one is comfortable
Disagree. Can only grow by getting out of the comfort zone (cave?).
I’m terms of trading, futures is a high leverage and big boy market. You can easily get killed
Day traded the S&P500 futures in the 1990s, before there was such a thing as an e-mini. Had a hand-held monitor to check tic action and had to phone in orders. So, yea, I've been there, done that, got the scars (don't think they even gave me a t-shirt) :lol: :lol: :lol:

Didn't chart S&P for day trades but charted and traded anything else I could that would give me good cycles (especially copper).
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Yodean
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Tonya Harding

Post by Yodean »

SOL wrote: Wed Nov 10, 2021 2:03 pm One way for those that are willing to take the risk is to use options on futures. Once again, to try something new, you must be prepared to fail before you succeed. No risk no gain
To me, it's mostly about learning to quantify risk, on a personal level, when it comes to investing.

Options are fairly new to me, so I keep my lot sizes small (usually 4 figures per lot, sometimes more, if expiry is over 12 months, i.e. LEAPs). On the other hand, I am comfortable HODLing and swing-trading precious metals, Ether, BTC, GAMANF stocks, TLT, a few others, etc., so when I see nice, asymmetric set-ups in those sectors, I attack them with bigger lot sizes (minimum 5 figures, often 6 figures, 7 figures a few times a year when I smell blood on the streets, like during March 2020).

If one does all the math, etc., accounting for beta, alpha, blah, blah, the potential risks vs. rewards, etc., overall it probably works out to be the same, assuming one knows what one is doing. E.g. betting small with options is the same as betting big with a position trade.

So increasing one's comfort zone in this context may simply entail betting bigger on a position trade, when one has a certain degree of conviction and experience in a particular sector.

I don't think it's good to get married to a particular trading instrument. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages.

Perhaps another way of saying this is that investing is not like figure skating ... there are no extra points for degree of difficulty in investing. Just because a trading instrument is more complex does not mean it is necessarily better.
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Yodean
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Re: BTC swing-trade f/u

Post by Yodean »

Yodean wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 5:06 am For those interested in my little BTC swing-trade, BTC traded above 62k Monday so 2nd lot was not deployed (I don't trade afterhours).

1st lot was deployed Friday when BTC was around 60k, and currently BTC is trading 68k+, above my 1st profit target of 67k+, so assuming BTC stays above 67k tomorrow, I will be selling 1/3rd of the 1st lot. If BTC trades above 69k+ tomorrow, 2/3rd of the 1st lot will be sold, and the remaining 1/3rd will be allowed to run a bit.

Hard stop remains on downside break of 57.5k.
An update on my li'l BTC swing-trade: 1st lot previously deployed @ 60k, 1/3rd then sold @ 67k+ for approx. 12% gains;

BTC hit 69k recently, which would have been my 2nd profit-taking target for the 1st lot, but I was doing something else at the time so missed this exit point; as this trade will reflect real world conditions for the retail trader, I will assume that profits were not taken @ 69k;

Today: 2nd lot just deployed when BTC was trading @ 63.5k;

I will be selling the remainder of the 1st lot position on upside break of 69k;

I have moved the hard stop for all lots on downside break of 58.5k;
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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chippermon
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Re: How to store your cryptos?

Post by chippermon »

I'm seeing very good support in the 59,847-60,216 range. I will be looking for it to hold around November 22-23. If not 54,785.00. The 480 minute and the daily seem to have lost their momentum
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Re: BTC swing-trade f/u

Post by Yodean »

Yodean wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 6:13 pm An update on my li'l BTC swing-trade: 1st lot previously deployed @ 60k, 1/3rd then sold @ 67k+ for approx. 12% gains;

BTC hit 69k recently, which would have been my 2nd profit-taking target for the 1st lot, but I was doing something else at the time so missed this exit point; as this trade will reflect real world conditions for the retail trader, I will assume that profits were not taken @ 69k;

Today: 2nd lot just deployed when BTC was trading @ 63.5k;

I will be selling the remainder of the 1st lot position on upside break of 69k;

I have moved the hard stop for all lots on downside break of 58.5k;
Just a quick update for those interested:

Will be adding another lot (3rd) for this particular BTC swing-trade at market open (currently BTC trading around $60.4k).

Hard stop for all lots moved back to 57.5k.
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Re: BTC swing-trade f/u

Post by Budge »

Yodean wrote: Tue Nov 16, 2021 1:24 pm
Yodean wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 6:13 pm
I have moved the hard stop for all lots on downside break of 58.5k;
$60.4k).

Hard stop for all lots moved back to 57.5k.
Did you move your stop before or after it hit 58515 this am?
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Re: BTC swing-trade f/u

Post by Yodean »

Budge wrote: Tue Nov 16, 2021 2:30 pm Did you move your stop before or after it hit 58515 this am?
Before ... I actually didn't see the break of 59k to the downside.
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Re: BTC swing-trade f/u

Post by Yodean »

Okay, last lot (3rd) just filled @ BTC 61k, for me personally.

To recap:

1st lot bought @ 60k, 1/3rd sold @ 67k+ for approx. 12% gains;

2nd lot bought @ 63.5k;

3rd lot bought @ 61k;

Hard stop on end-of-day break of 57.5k, all lots;

Precise profit-taking targets cancelled for the moment.

Let's let these puppies run free for a bit ... hopefully to the upside, of course.
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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Re: BTC swing-trade f/u

Post by Yodean »

Yodean wrote: Tue Nov 16, 2021 2:51 pm To recap:

1st lot bought @ 60k, 1/3rd sold @ 67k+ for approx. 12% gains;

2nd lot bought @ 63.5k;

3rd lot bought @ 61k;

Hard stop on end-of-day break of 57.5k, all lots;

Precise profit-taking targets cancelled for the moment.

Let's let these puppies run free for a bit ... hopefully to the upside, of course.
It was close, but the end-of-day stop for this trade held, @ BTC 57.5k. I don't want to have to pay too much attention to the markets outside of North American trading hours, even though BTC trades 24/7. So because I've been too lazy to open an account with a crypto. exchange, I've been using BITO, the new BTC futures ETF, as a proxy.

The previously listed BTC entry points represented the levels of BTC when my lots of BITO were filled. The tracking isn't perfect by any means, but it serves my purposes, for the time being.

Currently, for this particular trade, I have accumulated 3 lots of BITO. 1/3rd of the 1st lot was sold for 12% gains.

The remaining open position, 2.67 lots, is currently down 6.75%, based on average cost basis.

EBI: 53%buy/47%sell;

These puppies look a bit tired, but hopefully they will run to the upside tomorrow ...

:?:
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ETH

Post by Yodean »

Image

*****

If ETH follows a similar trajectory as BTC did in 2017 - as this graph appears to imply - ETH should take off shortly.

:?:
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Re: ETH

Post by Investor87 »

Yodean wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 3:29 pm Image

*****

If ETH follows a similar trajectory as BTC did in 2017 - as this graph appears to imply - ETH should take off shortly.

:?:
Good to hear. I just moved some of my BTC holdings over to ETH. I have very little in both so it is just an amusing experiment.
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Re: Dollar trade

Post by RMSLSP »

SOL wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:59 pm
Yodean wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:34 pm
AstuteShift wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:43 am I’ve been in crypto theme stocks short term, absolutely killer gains, especially NVDA and AMD
@YY: if you have a fairly "safe" swing-trade or two, and have the inclination, might be fun to post it ... I am sure there are others like me who enjoy looking at new ways of trading volatile sectors ...
Forgot to post that I am long the dollar, started at 92.50 all the way to 93.75 via the futures market. I will take profits from time to time but my main goal is to use pullbacks to keep opening up more positions via the futures markets

Will start to short the Euro shortly. one can also use options on the futures markets but as with all options markets it's ruled by crooks
Sol or anyone with this knowledge, begginer's question, how do you trade on the usdx (and with options?)? I use OANDA to trade forex but they don´t have usdx or any general usd index. Would an ETF be an alternative, like UUP from what I researched?
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Re: Dollar trade

Post by SOL »

RMSLSP wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:47 pm
SOL wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:59 pm
Yodean wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:34 pm

@YY: if you have a fairly "safe" swing-trade or two, and have the inclination, might be fun to post it ... I am sure there are others like me who enjoy looking at new ways of trading volatile sectors ...
Forgot to post that I am long the dollar, started at 92.50 all the way to 93.75 via the futures market. I will take profits from time to time but my main goal is to use pullbacks to keep opening up more positions via the futures markets

Will start to short the Euro shortly. one can also use options on the futures markets but as with all options markets it's ruled by crooks
Sol or anyone with this knowledge, begginer's question, how do you trade on the usdx (and with options?)? I use OANDA to trade forex but they don´t have usdx or any general usd index. Would an ETF be an alternative, like UUP from what I researched?
When I trade the Dollar Index I use futures and Futures are very high risk and not something I would recommend to anyone unless they are capable of dealing with high risk. The drawdowns can be brutal at times and if you don't have enough money in your account to cover the position you can be stopped out even if you are right

Having said that, another alternative would be to find stocks that are doing well and purchase options on them. But options are also risky but you don't as much margin as you would need when playing with futures and the volatility is generally less than trading futures.

I stopped playing the forex markets directly many moons ago, Forex can lead to massive gains but those gains can vanish just as fast. However, if you are nimble and disciplined it can yield lucrative profits. I just don't like being glued to the monitor.

UUP moves very slowly. So it's not for those that are looking for large gains

Other subscribers could possibly over you better options.
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Re: Dollar trade

Post by Yodean »

RMSLSP wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:47 pm Sol or anyone with this knowledge, begginer's question, how do you trade on the usdx (and with options?)? I use OANDA to trade forex but they don´t have usdx or any general usd index. Would an ETF be an alternative, like UUP from what I researched?
@YogaQueen:

For me, I play the emerging USD primary degree bull trend by holding >90% of my net worth in USD-denominated assets, e.g. stocks, USD cash, TLT (bond ETF).

U.S. bonds may be thought of as "delayed USD cash," so you'll capture some of the USD's bullish action with TLT, generally speaking.

With that said, the USD is overbought on my weekly charts and is due for a corrective pullback in the near future. On my monthly charts, the USD is still oversold and has recently completed a firm, bullish MACD crossover, so long-term, the USD will likely continue to go up.

I suspect the big spike up in the USD will occur when the equity markets crash next year, during the "Slaughter of '22."

Disclaimer: I am not a professional financial advisor and the aforementioned should not be construed as specific financial advice.
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Re: How to store your cryptos?

Post by AstuteShift »

I’m good with holding UUP, also deep ITM leaps for more leverage.

If the 2022 hypothesis is correct, then the dollar will explode likely
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