Hyperinflation or Deflation that is the billion dollar question

[SOL]

A more simplistic view and I am not making light of Yodean's great work, just providing an alternative viewpoint, would be to remember as long as the velocity of money is not rising dramatically Hyperinflation is an illusion. More importantly the AI trend is so powerful that it won't allow inflation to be an issue over the long run.

[AstuteShift]

A more simplistic view and I am not making light of Yodean's great work, just providing an alternative viewpoint, would be to remember as long as the velocity of money is not rising dramatically Hyperinflation is an illusion. More importantly the AI trend is so powerful that it won't allow inflation to be an issue over the long run.

It’s amazing how so many experts don’t include this fact on the media….oh wait they get paid to produce crap

[Budge]

Another great piece from Equedia:

https://www.equedia.com/inflation-much- ... s-the-eye/

Neatly summarised in the last line by the phrase: “Transitory My A$$.“

[SOL]

Another great piece from Equedia:

https://www.equedia.com/inflation-much- ... s-the-eye/

Neatly summarised in the last line by the phrase: “Transitory My A$$.“

Crash the market which will tighten the labour market and you will end the labour shortage and be in a position to flood the market with more money. Keep volatility levels high next year, many 1000 points plus moves in the Dow and the masses will seek the safety of a job. Problem solved. Any problem the Fed creates has an easy fix, they sometimes wait a tad bit longer so as to sure the crowd is psychology paralysed, which means that the next boom cycle will last 3X longer as it takes time for a paralysed mind to relax.

[Yodean]

[AstuteShift]

SOL stated in previous updates how the FED hiked many times in 2004-2006 and the markets still went higher before the crisis

Tech stocks is a no brainer sector, however it’s very volatile and for some it’s super painful experience to go through it.

The AI sector is going to be a mega bubble, glorious to those who embrace the volatility

[Yodean]

[harryg]

In the UK, home energy bills have just increased by 54%.

That's not a decimal point error.



(Technically, the 'price cap' has increased by 54%, but every energy provider has increased in line. Incidentally, this is another, often underappreciated aspect of following the markets. Last May, with NG at about 3, we locked into a 2 year contract at the old price. Provided the supplier doesn't go bankrupt, we should be protected for a little while, because even if NG falls again, the price cap system lags by 6-12m).

[Yodean]

In the UK, home energy bills have just increased by 54%.
That's not a decimal point error.

Yeh, pretty crazy - this type of thing is going to piss everyone off, which makes the Q4 Slaughter all the more likely ... a huge equity market crash will cause, potentially, enough demand destruction and an "anti-wealth" effect to depress CPInflation and prices for everyday items.

Personally, I use my own inflation index to complement the classic ones. It's the DSI: Dim Sum Index. Basically, the year-on-year increase in prices of the dim sum I eat. I have to consume some above-average dim sum on a regular basis or else I start losing some of my Ninjedi powers.

In any case, the current DSI is +33.3%. Plus, there is also the "Shrinkflation" that I am sure everybody is experiencing.

Not good ...

[SOL]

Inflation has shot to multi-decade highs in much of the rich world during the past year, with the effect of supply constraints, covid restrictions and a burgeoning economic recovery all helping to drive consumer prices higher. In Asia, however, pressure on prices is much weaker. Why?

In much of the region—in China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam—inflation is in fact below average levels over the decade before the pandemic, notes Abdul Abiad, director of macroeconomic research at the Asian Development Bank. Where it is higher than the average for 2010-2019—in Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand—it is by around two percentage points or less

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-e ... s-the-west

[harryg]

True enough, but that's a long way to go shopping!

The Dim Sum index sounds fun.

The more important issue for most of us is: how long will this last?

British consumers took on unsecured debt at the fastest pace in almost five years – the latest evidence that the cost-of-living crisis is straining household finances.

Borrowing on credit cards and personal loans jumped £1.9bn in February, according to the Bank of England. That's £1bn more than economists had expected and up from £600m in January.

The figures suggest consumers may be turning to borrowing to help pay the bills as inflation surges at a 30-year high, pushing up the price of everything from fuel to food and clothing.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... y-bitcoin/

[SOL]

True enough, but that's a long way to go shopping!

The Dim Sum index sounds fun.

The more important issue for most of us is: how long will this last?

British consumers took on unsecured debt at the fastest pace in almost five years – the latest evidence that the cost-of-living crisis is straining household finances.

Borrowing on credit cards and personal loans jumped £1.9bn in February, according to the Bank of England. That's £1bn more than economists had expected and up from £600m in January.

The figures suggest consumers may be turning to borrowing to help pay the bills as inflation surges at a 30-year high, pushing up the price of everything from fuel to food and clothing.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... y-bitcoin/

Believe it or not, this is connected to the Economic war with Russia and indirectly China. And until the West resolves this, we will slowly have two worlds, The one where inflation is an issue due to manmade issues, primarily morons making stupid calls and other nations where inflation will for the most part be a non-event. Let's hope logic overrules stupidity

[Budge]

True enough, but that's a long way to go shopping!

The Dim Sum index sounds fun.

The more important issue for most of us is: how long will this last?

British consumers took on unsecured debt at the fastest pace in almost five years – the latest evidence that the cost-of-living crisis is straining household finances.

Borrowing on credit cards and personal loans jumped £1.9bn in February, according to the Bank of England. That's £1bn more than economists had expected and up from £600m in January.

The figures suggest consumers may be turning to borrowing to help pay the bills as inflation surges at a 30-year high, pushing up the price of everything from fuel to food and clothing.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... y-bitcoin/

Believe it or not this is connected to the Economic war with Russia and indirectly China. And until the West resolves this, we will slowly have two worlds, The one where inflation is an issue due to manmade issues, primary morons making stupid calls and other nations where inflation will for the most part be a non-event. Let's hope logic overrules stupidity

"Let's hope logic overrules stupidity"

Fat Chance!

[Yodean]

The more important issue for most of us is: how long will this last?

An epic Q4 Slaughter in the equity markets will cause enough demand destruction and an "anti-weath" effect to decrease CPInflation, I would think. Then no more talk of massive rate hikes, QE will likely be re-instituted, and the $$$ printing presses will continue to roll ...

[scott]

Personally, I use my own inflation index to complement the classic ones. It's the DSI: Dim Sum Index.

Let us hope your portfolio never sees a Dim Sum.