Interim Update May 8, 2023

[SOL]

Im paying close attention to bitcoin currently, weekly charts on GBTC don’t look good so I’m hoping for more blood in the fall and it should set up the next baby bull.

Wallstreet so en trenched in the crypto that imho is safer to invest than China and more importantly the risk to reward ratio is greater in terms of taking a good bet with minimal risk. I need to see more crypto kids crying first

The greater the fall, the greater the opportunity

Bitcoin is currently extremely overbought on the weekly charts. All short-term targets were reached and slightly exceeded. The next likely move is a test of the 21,000 to 23,000 range. While the long-term outlook remains positive, BTC is a wild and volatile market, hence best to focus on midterm timeframes (Weekly charts)

[AstuteShift]

Im paying close attention to bitcoin currently, weekly charts on GBTC don’t look good so I’m hoping for more blood in the fall and it should set up the next baby bull.

Wallstreet so en trenched in the crypto that imho is safer to invest than China and more importantly the risk to reward ratio is greater in terms of taking a good bet with minimal risk. I need to see more crypto kids crying first

The greater the fall, the greater the opportunity

Bitcoin is currently extremely overbought on the weekly charts. All short-term targets were reached and slightly exceeded. The next likely move is a test of the 21,000 to 23,000 range. While the long-term outlook remains positive, BTC is a wild and volatile market, hence best to focus on midterm timeframes (Weekly charts)

Indeed

Another big indicator is the crypto conference is coming soon for 23

Every time they have a conference then bitcoin crashes severely. The big players will likely try to set the suckers and flush the weak hands

Once the dollar tops, then I think it’s fair to say crypto will likely experience another run up. However, best not to be greedy and wait

[outof thebox]

Im paying close attention to bitcoin currently, weekly charts on GBTC don’t look good so I’m hoping for more blood in the fall and it should set up the next baby bull.

Wallstreet so en trenched in the crypto that imho is safer to invest than China and more importantly the risk to reward ratio is greater in terms of taking a good bet with minimal risk. I need to see more crypto kids crying first

The greater the fall, the greater the opportunity

Bitcoin is currently extremely overbought on the weekly charts. All short-term targets were reached and slightly exceeded. The next likely move is a test of the 21,000 to 23,000 range. While the long-term outlook remains positive, BTC is a wild and volatile market, hence best to focus on midterm timeframes (Weekly charts)

Indeed

Another big indicator is the crypto conference is coming soon for 23

Every time they have a conference then bitcoin crashes severely. The big players will likely try to set the suckers and flush the weak hands

Once the dollar tops, then I think it’s fair to say crypto will likely experience another run up. However, best not to be greedy and wait

All true. The best strategy is to take the juicy part of trade and then bail out. Let others fight for the crumbs. Wait for the dust to settle and then repeat. off course it takes patience but thank goodness the masses lack this vital ingredient.

[MarkD]

https://ibb.co/LkGxpJY

[Yodean]

Once the dollar tops, then I think it’s fair to say crypto will likely experience another run up. However, best not to be greedy and wait

Superimposing various indicators, the 4-year btc cycle, the upcoming halving in '24, and even some cot btc data, my base case for btc:

-generally rangebound between 23k - 32k (i accumulate more towards the bottom of that range, sell a portion near the top end, while keeping a hodl core position); there may be spikes above and below that range, but likely short-lived unless price action confirms above or below;

-as we get nearer to the halving in '24, will be looking for a true, sustained breakout above that range;

-as always, this is just a base case, subject to the usual potential for Dark and Light Swans;

[outof thebox]

https://ibb.co/LkGxpJY

I've wanted to ask you about these charts before, but I keep forgetting. If you don't mind sharing; how you interpret what they're saying?

[MarkD]

This chart is a monthly with four volume indicators

1. Traditional volume below price on the horizontal axis.

2. Volume by Price (bars along left axis).

3. Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price.

4. Peak Energy which are the dark red/green lines that move up and down as price changes.

I use volume by price to look for support/resistance and exhaustion. Long bars are where price can reverse. Short bars are sometimes exhaustion (think price hitting and reversing resulting is a wick).

AVWAP is a simple concept of using volume to weight a moving average of price. I anchor it at the IPO, ATL, ATH, and near term swing high low. There are lots of ways it can be used but I want simple. Brian Shannon is the go to source for more info.

Peak Expansion (I use Energy in lieu of Price due to the interest in volume) is a moving target of maximum price. I am not an expert but have been using it to see if it complements the others. One thing I watch is when the VBP, AVWAP, and price are at the same point in time. So if we have a candlestick which hits a S/R level near a AVWAP or Peak Energy, I think it's a place to consider buying or selling.

https://imgur.com/4m7UyLZ

I added S/R lines to the chart. I would think a good place to buy GBTC is around 11.50 or 8.00 on a monthly for a risk averse investor. And sell some as it rises with resistance around 16. Using momentum can enhance entries and exits.

With respect to Peak I am still learning how it might fit. Here's a link to some info:

https://help.cqg.com/cqgic/23/default.h ... tudies.htm

Anyway, what I think this helps with is identifying price levels of interest on any time frame. And this service has enhanced my ability to use the information in a pretty savvy way.

I hope Sol understands that when he begins to limit official plays that some of us are open to his unofficial ideas shared on this forum.

[MarkD]

Added a weekly and one clear thing to notice is a change in possble levels of interest. Every time frame has it's own dynamics. The S/R lines were kept from the monthly for reference.

https://imgur.com/OoTy8Hc

[SOL]

I hope Sol understands that when he begins to limit official plays that some of us are open to his unofficial ideas shared on this forum.

I understand and will remember that there are subscribers who are open to non-official ideas. However, the process of reducing the number of plays will be gradual; you won't see a sudden 50% drop overnight . And all of us value our long-term loyal subscribers and won't forget them. We will either have a bonus section in the market update or share trade ideas in the trading ideas section. Link posted below

viewforum.php?f=24

[MarkD]

I hope Sol understands that when he begins to limit official plays that some of us are open to his unofficial ideas shared on this forum.

I understand and will remember that there are subscribers who are open to non-official ideas. However, the process of reducing the number of plays will be gradual; you won't see a sudden 50% drop overnight . And all of us value our long-term loyal subscribers and won't forget them. We will either have a bonus section in the market update or share trade ideas in the trading ideas section. Link posted below

viewforum.php?f=24

Dead link?

[MarkD]

Corp Bond A/D, added Pring Net New Highs and CORP for comparison. Rolling over atm.

https://ibb.co/Phqtvpz

[MarkD]

Fed will act soon. This is consistent with several other indications I follow.

https://ibb.co/yVKtpKc

[SOL]

I hope Sol understands that when he begins to limit official plays that some of us are open to his unofficial ideas shared on this forum.

I understand and will remember that there are subscribers who are open to non-official ideas. However, the process of reducing the number of plays will be gradual; you won't see a sudden 50% drop overnight . And all of us value our long-term loyal subscribers and won't forget them. We will either have a bonus section in the market update or share trade ideas in the trading ideas section. Link posted below

viewforum.php?f=24

Dead link?

I was just saying that it would appear in that section in the Trading ideas, strategies and models section at a future date

[MarkD]

Got it. Thanks!

[AstuteShift]

Nvidia off to the races, good timing

The monthly charts on the SOXX for me is super bullish, I would not be surprised if it surpasses its old highs. High risk high reward

Never chase upmarkets however