Interim Update April 24, 2023

[AstuteShift]

Since we are in the beginning stages of AI, being in the semiconductor ETFs are a very good bet.

Or if you have big balls then one or two stocks with a strong conviction.

[SOL]

Since we are in the beginning stages of AI, being in the semiconductor ETFs are a very good bet.

Or if you have big balls then one or two stocks with a strong conviction.

Big balls that are smart lol. A great suggestion you put forward, but it requires discipline. Most investors today believe that 12 months qualifies as long-term investing. That being said, TSM is starting to look like a solid investment option. With a strong P/E ratio and a dominant position in the market.

[SOL]

The upcoming update should be ready by tomorrow, if not the day after. We're seeing divergences in the markets, with the Nasdaq attempting to rally while the Dow pulls back. However, the Nasdaq has not made much progress since January 30th. We'll have to wait and see whether the upcoming correction will be mild or wild. Regardless, there are opportunities on the horizon.


Based on investor sentiment, the markets are due for a correction as the neutral camp is far from full. Additionally, the Dow Utilities' negative divergence signal needs to be resolved before we can see a sustained uptrend.

[Yodean]

Since we are in the beginning stages of AI, being in the semiconductor ETFs are a very good bet.

Or if you have big balls then one or two stocks with a strong conviction.

@YY: what are your highest conviction semiconductor bets?

[AstuteShift]

Since we are in the beginning stages of AI, being in the semiconductor ETFs are a very good bet.

Or if you have big balls then one or two stocks with a strong conviction.

@YY: what are your highest conviction semiconductor bets?

AMD/NVDA. However SOL suggesting TSM is also extremely good since their chips are top class

Big Blue Intel is a big question mark. Once they get competent management then off the races, big if lol

[Yodean]

AMD/NVDA. However SOL suggesting TSM is also extremely good since their chips are top class
Big Blue Intel is a big question mark. Once they get competent management then off the races, big if lol

Thanks for the response.

Not looking great right now, but for a very long-time now, TSM and INTC remain my favourites in terms of semiconductors.

The others should do well, too, over the long-term, I suspect, but my base case is NVDA is gonna get smacked down soon.

Disclosure: I own all four.

[Yodean]

Thanks for sharing. Relieving I guess

https://youtu.be/h1eHEceCY5o

Pretty good 18 minutes, timely, by arguably the greatest investor/trader of our generation: S. Druckenmiller.

The reason I'm posting it for you is that currently, his only trade of conviction is short the USD. He talks about this a bit in the clip, but reserves the right to change his mind at any time.

But if you know anything about Drucks, he's often wrong on his predictions (he says this publicly all the time), but through adept risk management practices and discipline, is still able to be consistently profitable even when he's wrong on his macro outlooks.

May the Force be with you ...

[harryg]

But if you know anything about Drucks, he's often wrong on his predictions (he says this publicly all the time), but through adept risk management practices and discipline, is still able to be consistently profitable even when he's wrong on his macro outlooks.

In a nutshell, that is what successful trading is all about.

Additionally, worth paying attention to his comments on losses.

[Yodean]

Additionally, worth paying attention to his comments on losses.

My big lesson from '22. Many others, but that was the key one.

[bobdylan]

Sol, could you clarify instruction for AMD? It appears to be truncated...

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Updated
Deploy 1/8th in the 73 to 75 range. Deploy another 1/4th in the 63 to 65 range. Place orders to sell
another 1⁄2 in the 102 to 105 range. If it trades to

[scremonini]

The latest market update covers some long-term opportunities in oversold currencies like TRY and JPY.

I'd be interested to hear opinions on 2 others insanely oversold currencies from 2 very solid countries, with low unemployment, low Gov debt, positive trade balance sheets and rich in oil and energy.
Probably not hard to guess I am referring to the NOK and SEK from Norway, Sweden.

The currencies have been consistently losing against any pairs over the last 12 months.

[SOL]

Sol, could you clarify instruction for AMD? It appears to be truncated...

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Updated
Deploy 1/8th in the 73 to 75 range. Deploy another 1/4th in the 63 to 65 range. Place orders to sell
another 1⁄2 in the 102 to 105 range. If it trades to

Ignore the if it trades to part; it was supposed to been deleted.

[SOL]

The latest market update covers some long-term opportunities in oversold currencies like TRY and JPY.

I'd be interested to hear opinions on 2 others insanely oversold currencies from 2 very solid countries, with low unemployment, low Gov debt, positive trade balance sheets and rich in oil and energy.
Probably not hard to guess I am referring to the NOK and SEK from Norway, Sweden.

The currencies have been consistently losing against any pairs over the last 12 months.

We believe that being too cautious in trading typically does not lead to significant gains. In hindsight, the Experts will refer to Yen as the trade of 2023 and 2024.


The focus should be on trades with high rewards rather than simply over-trading.

For instance, our precious metals trade (2003 to 2011) resulted in several hundred percentage points (600 to 1000%) in gains over approximately 7.5 years. Silver alone generated over 1000% in bullion trade gains, not including stocks or other investments.


Regarding my personal trading strategy, I will be concentrating on the Yen, Turkish Lira, IDR, Vietnam Dong, and perhaps one more currency. However, trading these other currencies can be challenging. Therefore, for our subscribers, we will focus on trading the unleveraged and leveraged ETFs of the Yen.

[harryg]

Since we are in the beginning stages of AI, being in the semiconductor ETFs are a very good bet.

Or if you have big balls then one or two stocks with a strong conviction.

AMD (v. approx)

1 day: +6%
1 month: -9%
6 months: +40%
1 year: -12%

5 years: 7x...






NVDA

1 day: -1%
1 month: +2%
6 months: +90%
1 year: +35%

5 years: 4.5x...



Big numbers: https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvid ... 023-05-03/

[Yodean]

all about the chips ...