Interim Update Oct 27, 2022

[SOL]

As I watch the live market and the live Q&A from Powell there is no way anyone can convince me that the FED does not rule the day at this point in financial history. The man needs to shut up and the reporters need to walk away because he is doing more damage through his contradictions than he did with his interest rate increase. Can he please just end the meeting? For the love of God, Powell, just call it!

If the markets claw their way back and end the day in the black or even well of their lows (but preferably in the black) it will be a strong indication that the markets are really climbing a wall of worry. Unfortunately Jerome suffers from verbal diarrhea, he is all over the place and people tend to focus on his negative comments more than on his positive comments. If anyone else were doing this, it would be called market manipulation and you could end up in jail.

[jonnyfrank]

Powell's verbal spewing is non-committal in nature, and that creates an aura of distrust around him that is very difficult to ignore. The markets obviously do not like what he says. He is more evasive than a nocturnal ocelot. I have never had his comments on while watching the market feed and it was very disturbing to witness. Everything got ugly very fast and it is only getting uglier. Geez. The idea of the .75 was fine but man oh man they sure know how to take regular gas and make a molotov cocktail out of it. Let's see what the last 30 minutes brings for the markets....

[MarkD]

End the FED. Two year treasury reveals everything as market participants already recognize value and economic strength/weakness.

That said, I basically ignore and do something useful on days the FOMC spews filth/vomit/half truths.

[jonnyfrank]

Mark, I usually don't do what I did today. I really could not believe what I was witnessing.

[LoriPrecisely]

Mark, I usually don't do what I did today. I really could not believe what I was witnessing.

It is odd how the markets reacted to what everyone already knew.
Makes no logical sense.

[SOL]

Mark, I usually don't do what I did today. I really could not believe what I was witnessing.

It is odd how the markets reacted to what everyone already knew.
Makes no logical sense.

The market reacted as expected, things changed albeit quite dramatically when Powel starting talking nonsense. He made statements that were non-committal but injected enough poison to scare the masses

Jonnyfrank expressed it well

The idea of the .75 was fine but man oh man they sure know how to take regular gas and make a molotov cocktail out of it. Let's see what the last 30 minutes brings for the markets...

.

[bpcw]

AAII data interesting this morning, the neutral reading jumped 9% and bullish jumped 4%. Can only imagine that with the markets going up the last few weeks has meant another smash and grab from the PTB. Maybe that's the new tactic, series of smash and grabs which will allow the PTB to keep accumulating and at the same time destroy the idea in the minds of the masses of buy the dip.

Does anyone know when people take part in the survey during the week, is at any time or a specific time. Obviously if most had already taken it then yesterday's drop won't be reflected in the results.

[SOL]

AAII data interesting this morning, the neutral reading jumped 9% and bullish jumped 4%. Can only imagine that with the markets going up the last few weeks has meant another smash and grab from the PTB. Maybe that's the new tactic, series of smash and grabs which will allow the PTB to keep accumulating and at the same time destroy the idea in the minds of the masses of buy the dip.

Does anyone know when people take part in the survey during the week, is at any time or a specific time. Obviously if most had already taken it then yesterday's drop won't be reflected in the results.

From what I understand they tabulate the results on Wednesday and so that probably means the cut off is Tuesday at the latest. So yesterdays drop was not factored in the latest data. When neutral data moves up it is a good sign it means more individuals are giving up. They don't know whether they should be bears or bulls. In fact readings of 50 or more (very rare events) usually signal a multi-year bottom is in place.

[Yodean]

*****

On balance, markets are going to be extremely volatile until after elections next week, to say the least. I view yesterday's price action, as well as the next several days, as mostly noise.

S&P still holding above 3600 - a key weekly closing level for me.

Do or die, it's time to buy ... Jerome's gonna be tight, so for the bulls it's a fight ... a rollercoaster ride, bears will be crushed ... hopefully to the upside, as long as you're not too rushed ...

[outof thebox]

@yodean some good rhyming there maybe you should think about coming up with a rap song on when to go long or short.

So far I am doing better on playing the Dow and the Russell. The NASDAQ is still lagging which is a bummer as I have a decent amount invested in TQQQ

[Yodean]

yo, yo, yo ... it's time to go long ... gonna be the bears' swan song ... gotta get me some more Meta ... willing to accept the downside beta ... wtf's going on with BABA?! ... gotta talk to Jack Ma ...where you at? ... time to step up to bat ...

[Expert]

Hello,

The latest market update, actually the last few, state that the long term view for low to medium risk traders, is that two corrections are to take place...one has already passed, and the other will occur later on. In the meantime, countertrend rallies are to be used to build up cash, for when the next anticipated correction takes place.
Now, is there any general timeline as to when the second correction will start, and when this interim rally will peak and die down? Or does that fall under short term time line?

[SOL]

Hello,

The latest market update, actually the last few, state that the long term view for low to medium risk traders, is that two corrections are to take place...one has already passed, and the other will occur later on. In the meantime, countertrend rallies are to be used to build up cash, for when the next anticipated correction takes place.
Now, is there any general timeline as to when the second correction will start, and when this interim rally will peak and die down? Or does that fall under short term time line?

The upside targets were issued under the short-term views. After the Dow trades in the 34,300 to 34, 650 range, we will be triggered out of many of our long positions. The pattern is strengthening a bit, so the targets will most likely be raised to the 34,550 to 34,710 range.

Let's play devil's advocate.

What happens if we are wrong and the markets bottomed in June this year? First of all, a new bull market does not start until the old highs are taken out. More importantly, if we are wrong, there are many plays that we can get back into. There are so many plays trading in the highly oversold to the insanely oversold range that it would be impossible to get into them all.

Given the unpredictable and volatile geopolitical situation, the neocons in this government that seem hell-bent on continuing this war, an overly aggressive Fed, a Slowing economy, liquidity issues in the bond market, etc etc, it is generally prudent to lean on the side of caution.

Let's not forget that sentiment is not extreme. At this point, bearish or Neutral sentiment readings should have hit the extreme range

[SOL]

yo, yo, yo ... it's time to go long ... gonna be the bears' swan song ... gotta get me some more Meta ... willing to accept the downside beta ... wtf's going on with BABA?! ... gotta talk to Jack Ma ...where you at? ... time to step up to bat ...

Pretty smooth.

[jonnyfrank]

SOL,

To be clear, do you think the upsides of DOW you mention will be hit AFTER a slight pullback between Nov. 15-22 or do you think it is rocket action straight up?