Interim Update Oct 18, 2022

[SOL]

Just want to say a big thanks for the new format around simplicity, and a clear distinguishing between higher and lower risk categories. Also think the cash level recommendations will be a great help and give clarity as to where we're at in the investing cycles, something I called fora while back.

Great that TI listen to members and make changes where appropriate!

You are more than welcome.


The Dow dipped below 30,3K today but then reversed course instead of dropping. It could have traded as low as 30K before reversing course. The case that the Fed has overshoot continues to get stronger. As the duration of this correction has been longer than expected, the case continues to get stronger albeit at a moderate pace, that the markets could experience two upward waves. Rally and the pullback towards the end of Oct to Early November. Then build a base and rally until possibly Jan 2023 before pulling back. Note this would fall under the short-term outlook, so it's for risk-takers. Let's see if the Fed's pivot just a little bit; the markets reacted positively to the news that they are mulling over how much to raise rates at the next meeting.

[SOL]

"Positive stress", hormesis, works on mind and body. In the stock market, and in the gym.

@Astuteshift , seems like you have grasped the main concepts of MP very well and I would have to agree with your assessment, though while you are in the storm it's not always easy to envision the sunshine that will follow.

Scott you are man of few words but the message is almost always loud and clear. What's a good gun for a novice to purchase.

Thanks gnosis, about a gun, it depends on intended purpose, what you are allowed to own and other factors. I'll post in the "gun stuff" thread to start. Think Eric would have some good input. You're also welcome to PM me.

A bit more on hormesis.
I think Yodean put it; you need friction to grow. As a doctor, for sure he knows about hormesis.
No pain, no gain.
If it doesn't kill you, it makes you stronger.

Used to be, I thought these truisms were conciliatory, to assuage (losers?) hurt people. Just understanding does not make it a truth for you, its just in your mind. When you internalize it, take it to heart and soul, along with your mind, then its (your) truth.

"...though while you are in the storm it's not always easy to envision the sunshine that will follow."
About that, some more truisms:
Its mind over matter, if you don't mind, it doesn't matter.
This too, shall pass.
Its only important if you think it is.

And not a truism I would like to hear bpcw's thoughts on, since I'm still internalizing.

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

Looks like astuteshift appreciates The Fourth Way, as I do, thanks to Sol. I dare say since astute is embracing "the pain", soon he won't feel pain to embrace. Perhaps at the "expense" of being bored, but I say not for long!

There seems to be a plethora of perverse talent here and I mean that in a good way. This community has the capacity to change the theme of any forum. We are supposed to be discussing interim updates in this thread and we have moved to guns, the 4th way, Truisms, etc.

I suppose if we discuss how to bake potatoes the topic will shift to aliens

It's all good or bad until it's not, or maybe it was always not good but we are just too blind to see it or maybe we confuse the two states. To be continued by someone else

[scott]

Double baked potatoes, bacon bits are the key ingredient. Oh! Sorry!
Off topic police (Nazis even) would be much appreciated. What to do?

[bpcw]

And not a truism I would like to hear bpcw's thoughts on, since I'm still internalizing.

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

Not exactly sure what I'm answering but will make the following points:

From a disciple of Jesus's perspective, it's more about letting go of the control of our lives and in doing so we become more secure. Think of a toddler at the terrible two's stage, they fight and scream for their selfish desires but if they have good parents that provide loving discipline they learn the boundaries and feel safer and more secure knowing they have loving parents that know best. To God as independent individuals thinking we are in control of our lives we are like toddlers scratching around, can we really control whether someone blows us away or we have a massive unexpected heart attack. When we let go knowing God loves us and allow him to take control we are more and more secure. We start to realise that the ultimate reality is a spiritual one and eternal values and perspectives take more precedence over worldly temporal things. Of course this a journey and we don't let go of control easily, especially in certain areas, money being a biggy. The Bible says that God disciplines the one's he loves, no discipline seems pleasant at the time, but painful. Later on, however, it produces a harvest of righteousness and peace for those who have been trained by it. I'm still trying! I think that the more secure we are in God the more we act wisely and not from our emotions and fears, Jesus for example said do not worry for you cannot change a thing by doing so, also there is no fear in love (knowing God's love).

I don't know too much about the 4th way but there are cross overs as there is with the likes of Buddhism, the obvious difference is a belief in a supreme being.

The Gospel according to BPCW!

[LoriPrecisely]

The Dow dipped below 30,3K today but then reversed course instead of dropping. It could have traded as low as 30K before reversing course. The case that the Fed has overshoot continues to get stronger. As the duration of this correction has been longer than expected, the case continues to get stronger albeit at a moderate pace, that the markets could experience two upward waves. Rally and the pullback towards the end of Oct to Early November. Then build a base and rally until possibly Jan 2023 before pulling back. Note this would fall under the short-term outlook, so it's for risk-takers. Let's see if the Fed's pivot just a little bit; the markets reacted positively to the news that they are mulling over how much to raise rates at the next meeting.

Thank you, Sol, for the encouraging update.
Today was very hopeful with the up-trend most of the day.
I sure hope this continues for a bit, it makes for much more interesting trading.
I know people make money buying Puts in a down market, but I have not done that yet.
I have been making a little selling covered calls on upward movement, and buying them back on downward movement.
Today was my first day buying calls on the SPY. I risked very little buying a Call near the end of the day. I only made $10, but it is a start.

[scott]

The Gospel according to BPCW!

Thank you sir!

[Expert]

Just want to say a big thanks for the new format around simplicity, and a clear distinguishing between higher and lower risk categories. Also think the cash level recommendations will be a great help and give clarity as to where we're at in the investing cycles, something I called fora while back.

Great that TI listen to members and make changes where appropriate!

The Dow dipped below 30,3K today but then reversed course instead of dropping. It could have traded as low as 30K before reversing course. The case that the Fed has overshoot continues to get stronger. As the duration of this correction has been longer than expected, the case continues to get stronger albeit at a moderate pace, that the markets could experience two upward waves. Rally and the pullback towards the end of Oct to Early November. Then build a base and rally until possibly Jan 2023 before pulling back. Note this would fall under the short-term outlook, so it's for risk-takers. Let's see if the Fed's pivot just a little bit; the markets reacted positively to the news that they are mulling over how much to raise rates at the next meeting.

What about previously, when you had mentioned that this market may experience two downward trends. After this current correction ends, you had mentioned that the markets will rally, but this rally will falter, and then the markets will have a second downward leg that will be worse than the first. After a while of that happening, the cybernetic bull market will commence. This will loosely resemble what happened in the 2008-2009 crash with two downward phases, the second being more severe than the first. Is this still accurate as to what is likely to happen?

Because, now it seems like you're saying the markets will experience two rallies. Will there stick be a second, more severe downturn prior to the commencement of the cybernetic bull?

[LoriPrecisely]

Just want to say a big thanks for the new format around simplicity, and a clear distinguishing between higher and lower risk categories. Also think the cash level recommendations will be a great help and give clarity as to where we're at in the investing cycles, something I called fora while back.

Great that TI listen to members and make changes where appropriate!

The Dow dipped below 30,3K today but then reversed course instead of dropping. It could have traded as low as 30K before reversing course. The case that the Fed has overshoot continues to get stronger. As the duration of this correction has been longer than expected, the case continues to get stronger albeit at a moderate pace, that the markets could experience two upward waves. Rally and the pullback towards the end of Oct to Early November. Then build a base and rally until possibly Jan 2023 before pulling back. Note this would fall under the short-term outlook, so it's for risk-takers. Let's see if the Fed's pivot just a little bit; the markets reacted positively to the news that they are mulling over how much to raise rates at the next meeting.

What about previously, when you had mentioned that this market may experience two downward trends. After this current correction ends, you had mentioned that the markets will rally, but this rally will falter, and then the markets will have a second downward leg that will be worse than the first. After a while of that happening, the cybernetic bull market will commence. This will loosely resemble what happened in the 2008-2009 crash with two downward phases, the second being more severe than the first. Is this still accurate as to what is likely to happen?

Because, now it seems like you're saying the markets will experience two rallies. Will there stick be a second, more severe downturn prior to the commencement of the cybernetic bull?

As Yodean is famous for saying,
"No one knows the future. One does not profit by following a prophet."

I have learned that he is absolutely correct.

[LoriPrecisely]

The more doom and gloom the better the opportunity.

At the end of the day, the market will always recover. Just the big parasites make it seem that reality is impossible when really it’s just a big Ponzi

Keep up with your journaling, that way you can look back and see how you reacted and what actions you take

SOL to his credit, did warn about corrections last year, the dollar rising like 2 years ago and the rise of manipulation.

Investing is a solo act at the end of the day

Hi Astute, It is good to hear from you. I wondered how you were doing in light of the hurricane and flooding and craziness in Florida. I hope you were not affected. My heart goes out to all the Floridians who are suffering.

You are right about the fact that investing is a solo act at the end of the day.
That is actually one of the reasons I like it so much.
I don't have to deal with clients, or customers, or employees, or bosses, or co-workers --people basically--

I have recently joined a live group, though, because I still have a lot to learn.
I do enjoy seeing how other people analyze and trade,
and make/lose money, and react to their choices and consequences.
I am learning about the different indicators, and the many different ways people use these indicators to make/lose money in the markets. There are so many ways to trade!!
I like it, and I hope to get good enough at it to make a daily income.

[Expert]

[/quote]

As Yodean is famous for saying,
"No one knows the future. One does not profit by following a prophet."

I have learned that he is absolutely correct.
[/quote]

Not asking for a prediction of the future, but whether the current outlook has changed based on new data, new developments, MS, technical analysis trends, etc.

[SOL]

Just want to say a big thanks for the new format around simplicity, and a clear distinguishing between higher and lower risk categories. Also think the cash level recommendations will be a great help and give clarity as to where we're at in the investing cycles, something I called fora while back.

Great that TI listen to members and make changes where appropriate!

The Dow dipped below 30,3K today but then reversed course instead of dropping. It could have traded as low as 30K before reversing course. The case that the Fed has overshoot continues to get stronger. As the duration of this correction has been longer than expected, the case continues to get stronger albeit at a moderate pace, that the markets could experience two upward waves. Rally and the pullback towards the end of Oct to Early November. Then build a base and rally until possibly Jan 2023 before pulling back. Note this would fall under the short-term outlook, so it's for risk-takers. Let's see if the Fed's pivot just a little bit; the markets reacted positively to the news that they are mulling over how much to raise rates at the next meeting.

What about previously, when you had mentioned that this market may experience two downward trends. After this current correction ends, you had mentioned that the markets will rally, but this rally will falter, and then the markets will have a second downward leg that will be worse than the first. After a while of that happening, the cybernetic bull market will commence. This will loosely resemble what happened in the 2008-2009 crash with two downward phases, the second being more severe than the first. Is this still accurate as to what is likely to happen?

Because, now it seems like you're saying the markets will experience two rallies. Will there stick be a second, more severe downturn prior to the commencement of the cybernetic bull?

If you look at the new format, the answer should be clear; the views are now separated into long-term and short-term. Secondly, you assume the market moves in one wave. No market moves in one wave. You are mixing and matching two different timelines. You have to choose either the long-term or the short term and after that, read the notes posted under each section.

Here is what is posted under the short-term section

The views posted under this section are intended only for traders with considerable market experience and, more importantly, are open and willing to take on more risk. Short-term conditions can change rapidly between updates, and traders might have to react independently.

Price action also plays a role. The resistance and support points can change if specific price points are not hit within a given time. If there is a link next to the Market, that's the location you can obtain the latest quote.

The long-term outlook remains unchanged and has remained unchanged for over one year since we first discussed it. Two corrective waves were projected to occur.

Once again, please read the disclaimer posted under the short-term trading section. This outlook was clearly meant for short-term traders, as indicated by the statement below.

Note this would fall under the short-term outlook, so it's for risk-takers.

Lastly, there are no prophets, anyone claiming to be a prophet is a fool and anyone following a prophet is an even bigger fool.

We have never claimed to be prophets, experts, gurus, etc. The most I have ever claimed is to be an advanced student.

[scott]

Lastly, there are no prophets, anyone claiming to be a prophet is a fool and anyone following a prophet is an even bigger fool.

SOL! What do I do NOW!

[Expert]

Lastly, there are no prophets, anyone claiming to be a prophet is a fool and anyone following a prophet is an even bigger fool.

SOL! What do I do NOW!

Focus on the long-term...and avoid the short-term.

[scott]

Lastly, there are no prophets, anyone claiming to be a prophet is a fool and anyone following a prophet is an even bigger fool.

SOL! What do I do NOW!

Focus on the long-term...and avoid the short-term.

The Hurrier I go, the Behinder I get!

[chippermon]

SOL! What do I do NOW!

Focus on the long-term...and avoid the short-term.

The Hurrier I go, the Behinder I get!

LOL.

Add the short term and the long term together then divide by 2 and call it medium term.