Interim Update Oct 7, 2022

[bpcw]

An interesting thing is that everyone is being sidetracked by the news. We know that apart from black or white swans that the markets don't move based on the news but here we are hanging off every bit of data coming out, perhaps this is a tactic of the PTB to manipulate daily moves after a data release so that we become accustomed to it, and then at some point they can manipulate the markets in the opposite direction to what a data release would imply.

Or am I talking nonsense?

[jonnyfrank]

Perhaps the black swam is the data, and every piece of it can be manipulated to support any narrative. Today's data sure was not worthy of the correction today, in my opinion.

[LoriPrecisely]

An interesting thing is that everyone is being sidetracked by the news. We know that apart from black or white swans that the markets don't move based on the news but here we are hanging off every bit of data coming out, perhaps this is a tactic of the PTB to manipulate daily moves after a data release so that we become accustomed to it, and then at some point they can manipulate the markets in the opposite direction to what a data release would imply.

It seems that is already happening.
Good earnings report, market drops.
Good jobs report, market drops.

I don't know how many times I have read on this forum that the markets have over-reacted to the data/event/speech.

And, we know the Fed is not raising interest rates for any good economic reason for the benefit of society. They are trying to win the currency war, and wreaking havoc on other countries in the process.

[SOL]

An interesting thing is that everyone is being sidetracked by the news. We know that apart from black or white swans that the markets don't move based on the news but here we are hanging off every bit of data coming out, perhaps this is a tactic of the PTB to manipulate daily moves after a data release so that we become accustomed to it, and then at some point they can manipulate the markets in the opposite direction to what a data release would imply.

Or am I talking nonsense?

I wish you were; they have so much money now, that they can control almost anything. The big players have openly stated that the way they control Europe is by paying the politicians whatever they want. Have you seen how great the chasm is between the people and the politicians in Europe and now increasingly the US.

Think about it, unemployment dropped, when all you hear non-stop is companies cutting back on hiring and a lot a firing people. Energy prices dropped dramatically, but Yet PPI and CPI keep printing higher. Consumers are not happy, yet miraculously consumer confidence readings rise, and the list goes on.

The only thing that we can say we know for sure is that the big players do all this for one reason. They want to make a killing, and so unless one is using money they need to live on, it's best not to fall for these psyops.

Even though it sounds easy it is not, which is what they count on. They count on breaking us via FEAR for they know that is the only way most investors will part with their shares, even though history indicates that the markets always recoup and rally higher. They know that everyone talks long-term but if the Fear Factor is pushed, the masses will focus on the short term and even forget that they don't need that money today.

When you are selling a good product you don't need to convince the person to buy it, the product sells itself. Ask yourself why are they going out of their way to act in such an aggressive manner. The news hardly hit that the jobs report was slightly positive and the headlines started pouring left, right and centre about how the Fed was going to whack this market. There is a concentrated effort to hype the bad news and this means only one thing, someone wants to push the market lower for a specific reason.

[Yodean]

Perhaps the black swam is the data, and every piece of it can be manipulated to support any narrative. Today's data sure was not worthy of the correction today, in my opinion.

Yesterday seemed to make everybody forget:

For the week:

- S&P500 rose 1.51%
- Dow up 1.99%
- Nasdaq up 0.73%

******

And this is for those who think we're trading on an even playing field:

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/stat ... 0175152128

******

The game is rigged against you - but try to win anyways.

Ultimately, the best long-term trader is the best short-term loser. The ones who learn the most from their losses, handle horrific drawdowns with aplomb, and so forth.

To be a consistently winning investor, you have to be an even better loser. Kinda weird, but methinks true.

Okay, will stop cheap Anthony Robbins' impersonation.

[bpcw]

I agree with the comments on the news, so we need to be reminded not to be waiting for good news, only that they might use a particular data release to time their next manipulation and as we cannot determine what that will be we only have our long term strategy to rely on, hold good stocks, apart from some playing with options which I don't do.

[MarkD]

All I will state is that "real earnings" as measured by
GAAP (GENERALLY ACCEPTED ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES). Down but only a smidgen. But mire tension might be otw as AMD and FDX are reporting prior to normal earnings reporting cycles. Fed going to break something, then the next big print begins.

[SOL]

I agree with the comments on the news, so we need to be reminded not to be waiting for good news, only that they might use a particular data release to time their next manipulation and as we cannot determine what that will be we only have our long term strategy to rely on, hold good stocks, apart from some playing with options which I don't do.

If you look at the chart Yodean posted, you can see that the big players know precisely when to buy and when to sell. Therefore if you take things one step further, NEWS (Never Ending Worry Syndrome) only serves one purpose. It is their tool to get you to sell at the wrong time and buy at the wrong time, so they can make money on both ends. In one way the stock market is the real killing fields; they just rob hard-working individuals blindly.

Since they control the laws, the police, the military, the judges, and the money supply, there is no way in hell they will level the playing field. The only way to win here is to understand their end game; each disaster is created so they can fatten themselves at the expense of those who really need the money. That is the only real edge we have. And how do disasters end? They end with the birth of a new bull, and all the good stocks that dropped in price always trade above their old highs.

Is there anyone here that would not give almost anything to buy at 2008 highs, forget the 2009 lows or load at Jan 2020 prices and not March 2020 when the markets bottomed?

[bpcw]

I agree with the comments on the news, so we need to be reminded not to be waiting for good news, only that they might use a particular data release to time their next manipulation and as we cannot determine what that will be we only have our long term strategy to rely on, hold good stocks, apart from some playing with options which I don't do.

If you look at the chart Yodean posted, you can see that the big players know precisely when to buy and when to sell. Therefore if you take things one step further, NEWS (Never Ending Worry Syndrome) only serves one purpose. It is their tool to get you to sell at the wrong time and buy at the wrong time, so they can make money on both ends. In one way the stock market is the real killing fields; they just rob hard-working individuals blindly.

Since they control the laws, the police, the military, the judges, and the money supply, there is no way in hell they will level the playing field. The only way to win here is to understand their end game; each disaster is created so they can fatten themselves at the expense of those who really need the money. That is the only real edge we have. And how do disasters end? They end with the birth of a new bull, and all the good stocks that dropped in price always trade above their old highs.

Is there anyone here that would not give almost anything to buy at 2008 highs, forget the 2009 lows or load at Jan 2020 prices and not March 2020 when the markets bottomed?

Yep agreed, think we're saying the same thing!

[outof thebox]

Continuing on my previous comment on keeping a journal. I say to hell with the fear and keep nibbling as the market drops. It's hard to press the buy button, but I have found out that when I buy stocks when I am fearful I do much better (12-24 months later) than when I am smiling like dude that just smoked a blunt.

I say to hell with the fear a lot, but sometimes it talks back and then I need to bark a bit louder.

[nicolas]

Here's a quick and easy exercise to gain some perspective:
1. Look at the 1-year chart of SPY
2. Now pull up the chart for PE500 (S&P 500 ETF in EUR)
3. And CSP1 (S&P 500 ETF in GBP)
4. Finally, 1655 (S&P 500 ETF in JPY)

Not the same picture, right?

If you look at it in GBP, the S&P is only 8% off its ATH, which happened in August this year.

The main reason the charts we look at every day are so ugly is that the dollar has gotten so much stronger.

One of two things can happen:
- either the dollar keeps on rising forever to the moon,
- or it doesn't. In which case, picture what the S&P chart in USD will look like then.

[jonnyfrank]

The bigger question is what is going to stop the dollar in the next 3 months? I am using actual timeframe instead of the ambiguous "short term" and "long term" parachute language. I think we should all start doing this for the sake of better communication.

[LoriPrecisely]

The bigger question is what is going to start the dollar in the next 3 months? I am using actual timeframe instead of the ambiguous "short term" and "long term" parachute language. I think we should all start doing this for the sake of better communication.

Yes, good idea.

[Yodean]

The bigger question is what is going to stop the dollar in the next 3 months? I am using actual timeframe instead of the ambiguous "short term" and "long term" parachute language. I think we should all start doing this for the sake of better communication.

The short answer - the USD moves as the Fed wishes.

Since I'm a bit evil like the Fed, I tend to think I can guess a bit of what the Fed is thinking - I wouldn't let the USD get above 115 or so for very long - Triffin's dilemma and all that, in the time frame you mentioned.

The rest of the world is USA's vassals/slaves/servants, atm, but America - as the top dog - doesn't want to kill her slaves, just whip and torture them occasionally so they behave.

USD is the whip - but if it goes too high, you're gonna kill your slaves. USD 90 - 115 is a decent "whipping" zone.

[MarkD]

Thought I would post a visual of where we are and how we got here. This charts depicts the SPX (black/red), Treasuries (USB, Red), Commodities (CRB, orange), and the US Dollar (Green). Interesting to note that usually, if you follow the chart, note how bonds top, stocks top, commodities top, bonds bottom, stocks bottom, commodities bottom.

Interesting to note that bonds had topped pre covid and were dropping (blue elipsis at what appeared to be an interest rate bottom with rates rising). Follow what occurred thereafter. Ties into Sol's theme that volatility is going to be crazy both to the up and downside. Pull up a chart of any stock or index and observe price with just bollinger bands on a monthly for the past 20 years.

The other takeaway is that the dollar and commodities normally bounce within certain boundaries (I added the green rectangle to illustrate a period of relative dollar stability).

https://imgur.com/OMKW0Vn