Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

[LoriPrecisely]

Hello.

In latest MU (08/09) are mentioned exit point with trigger Nasdaq at 13500-13700 points

Is the 13500 level referred to IXIC (nasdaq composite) or to NDX (nasdaq 100)

Maybe naive but ...
thanks

I have been using $COMPX

[SOL]

Hello.

In latest MU (08/09) are mentioned exit point with trigger Nasdaq at 13500-13700 points

Is the 13500 level referred to IXIC (nasdaq composite) or to NDX (nasdaq 100)

Maybe naive but ...
thanks

$COMPX and IXIC are the same, different systems use different symbols You can track it on yahoo. I am referencing the Nasdaq composite ` https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=%5EIXIC

[SOL]

Watch today's close. A close well below the high or below the last print high on the NAS or SPX should validate the short-term top scenario. However, the lower CPI print means that a new narrative about lower inflation will kick in later this year or towards the beginning of next year.

[kcun333]

I’m a little confused about sell targets in the August 8 MU: “Half of stock is to be sold at X stock price and the remaining half sold when NASDAQ hits 13,550.”

What if the NASDAQ hits 13,550 before the stock hits its target price, do we still just sell half the stock as we wait for the NASDAQ to rise?

Also, since we are expecting 6-10 days of consolidation before the Thrust phase that should may last into October, why are we selling stocks at a loss when NASDAQ hits 13,550, which is only a couple hundred points away, yet we expect stock prices to go up for several more weeks?

[SOL]

I’m a little confused about sell targets in the August 8 MU: “Half of stock is to be sold at X stock price and the remaining half sold when NASDAQ hits 13,550.”

What if the NASDAQ hits 13,550 before the stock hits its target price, do we still just sell half the stock as we wait for the NASDAQ to rise?

Also, since we are expecting 6-10 days of consolidation before the Thrust phase that should may last into October, why are we selling stocks at a loss when NASDAQ hits 13,550, which is only a couple hundred points away, yet we expect stock prices to go up for several more weeks?

Short-term trends are much harder to predict. The Short term trend is like looking at a tree, and the longer-term trend is like looking at the forest. The focus should be on the longer-term outlook, which generally calls for the markets to rally until Oct.

As for the targets, if the Nasdaq is the target for selling the second lot and it hits that price before the stock trades to X price, then the whole position should be sold. However, we actively monitor the pattern, so if we see additional signs of strength, those targets will be raised well in advance of them being hit.

[LoriPrecisely]

Watch today's close. A close well below the high or below the last print high on the NAS or SPX should validate the short-term top scenario. However, the lower CPI print means that a new narrative about lower inflation will kick in later this year or towards the beginning of next year.

Below which high? The daily high?
Interesting that all 3 indices jumped today.

[spark]

I’m a little confused about sell targets in the August 8 MU: “Half of stock is to be sold at X stock price and the remaining half sold when NASDAQ hits 13,550.”

What if the NASDAQ hits 13,550 before the stock hits its target price, do we still just sell half the stock as we wait for the NASDAQ to rise?

Also, since we are expecting 6-10 days of consolidation before the Thrust phase that should may last into October, why are we selling stocks at a loss when NASDAQ hits 13,550, which is only a couple hundred points away, yet we expect stock prices to go up for several more weeks?

Short-term trends are much harder to predict. The Short term trend is like looking at a tree, and the longer-term trend is like looking at the forest. The focus should be on the longer-term outlook, which generally calls for the markets to rally until Oct.

As for the targets, if the Nasdaq is the target for selling the second lot and it hits that price before the stock trades to X price, then the whole position should be sold. However, we actively monitor the pattern, so if we see additional signs of strength, those targets will be raised well in advance of them being hit.

@kcun333 - Also see above, Sol is referring to $COMP which is ~12,850 vs NDX ~13,450.

[chippermon]

Now the criminals could ramp it but with CPI print next week, there will be definite volatility. The retail crowd has been piling in on calls too much this week so it’s time to herd the sheep before they going into long positions

There's a decent % that CPI prints a bit lower vs. expected (given drops in oil and other commodities in recent months, etc.). This could set up a short-covering rally of sorts ...

Nice call Yodean,

[SOL]

Now the criminals could ramp it but with CPI print next week, there will be definite volatility. The retail crowd has been piling in on calls too much this week so it’s time to herd the sheep before they going into long positions

There's a decent % that CPI prints a bit lower vs. expected (given drops in oil and other commodities in recent months, etc.). This could set up a short-covering rally of sorts ...

Nice call Yodean,

And just like that, they will start to make the case for deflation. Sometimes I think they just pull whatever object happens to be protruding out of their arses depending on what miscreant they consumed the day before and then let the media create the narrative. Truth does not matter when you control both printing presses (media and the money machine)

[bpcw]

Hi Sol,

I have a couple of additional questions just for clarity.

The chart of the Nasdaq in the update appears to correlate with the Nasdaq 100 and not the composite looking at the numbers, can you confirm please?

Also is the reason for selling a number of stocks at the given Nasdaq levels to raise the first block of cash and then leave the rest for the predicted rise until October, thus reducing risk in case the big correction/crash comes earlier than expected? Obviously though ideal, we cannot expect to sell everything at the top and isn't good money management.

[Yodean]

Nice call Yodean,

Thanks. The key is to make a bunch of calls, and keep making them - statistically, some of them will come true, then you get to say, "HAH! I told you so, I am a market prodigy." Lol.

In all seriousness, I surf the net a bit and try to get a sense of what most mainstream experts are saying, then consider the opposite or at least an alternative to the dominant view.

These two interviews just showed up yesterday on my feed:

https://youtu.be/sSo2t2WWpz0

https://youtu.be/Rgbcwf6-6Cg

*****

These interviews aren't necessarily worth watching, but I've noticed those two tend to get invited to speak on mainstream financial channels shortly after or during interim bottoms in "risk on" (i.e. equities) assets.

[SOL]

Hi Sol,

I have a couple of additional questions just for clarity.

The chart of the Nasdaq in the update appears to correlate with the Nasdaq 100 and not the composite looking at the numbers, can you confirm please?

Also is the reason for selling a number of stocks at the given Nasdaq levels to raise the first block of cash and then leave the rest for the predicted rise until October, thus reducing risk in case the big correction/crash comes earlier than expected? Obviously though ideal, we cannot expect to sell everything at the top and isn't good money management.

'This is the NDX 100, It is trading much higher than the Nasdaq
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX? ... c=fin-srch

In terms of selling, you answered your question. No one ever went broke taking profits. The markets have broken through resistance levels, so they will rally a bit more before pulling back, but the overall outlook remains the same, rally until Sept Oct. I am looking at the charts and post an update when i am done regarding short term targets

[LoriPrecisely]

Hi Sol,

I have a couple of additional questions just for clarity.

The chart of the Nasdaq in the update appears to correlate with the Nasdaq 100 and not the composite looking at the numbers, can you confirm please?

Also is the reason for selling a number of stocks at the given Nasdaq levels to raise the first block of cash and then leave the rest for the predicted rise until October, thus reducing risk in case the big correction/crash comes earlier than expected? Obviously though ideal, we cannot expect to sell everything at the top and isn't good money management.

'This is the NDX 100, It is trading much higher than the Nasdaq
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX? ... c=fin-srch

In terms of selling, you answered your question. No one ever went broke taking profits. The markets have broken through resistance levels, so they will rally a bit more before pulling back, but the overall outlook remains the same, rally until Sept Oct. I am looking at the charts and post an update when i am done regarding short term targets

Now I am really confused.

Yesterday, you said:
"$COMPX and IXIC are the same, different systems use different symbols You can track it on yahoo. I am referencing the Nasdaq composite." https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=%5EIXIC

So, when we are watching for the trigger to sell, which one are we watching?
And, that is a different index from the one in the update?

[SOL]

Hi Sol,

I have a couple of additional questions just for clarity.

The chart of the Nasdaq in the update appears to correlate with the Nasdaq 100 and not the composite looking at the numbers, can you confirm please?

Also is the reason for selling a number of stocks at the given Nasdaq levels to raise the first block of cash and then leave the rest for the predicted rise until October, thus reducing risk in case the big correction/crash comes earlier than expected? Obviously though ideal, we cannot expect to sell everything at the top and isn't good money management.

'This is the NDX 100, It is trading much higher than the Nasdaq
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX? ... c=fin-srch

In terms of selling, you answered your question. No one ever went broke taking profits. The markets have broken through resistance levels, so they will rally a bit more before pulling back, but the overall outlook remains the same, rally until Sept Oct. I am looking at the charts and post an update when i am done regarding short term targets

Now I am really confused.

Yesterday, you said:
"$COMPX and IXIC are the same, different systems use different symbols You can track it on yahoo. I am referencing the Nasdaq composite." https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=%5EIXIC

So, when we are watching for the trigger to sell, which one are we watching?
And, that is a different index from the one in the update?

what do you see when you click on this link?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=%5EIXIC

Then click on this
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX? ... c=fin-srch


COMPX is used by different charting systems to show the Nasdaq composite

[xkosmox]

Hmmm I think Lori's asking about the Aug 9 Market Update:
Where NDX100 being used on the first page of the pdf update,
but later pages of the pdf make reference to the Composite (not the NDX100) instead as the selling point.

Did i get that right?