Sentiment Indicators

[Investor87]

So the Nasdaq just jumped past 13.5k, a Sol prediction (suspicion) from the last update.

This forum is good moral support for me. I am also heavy in cash but seem to be in good company. I'm visualizing patience paying off well.

[SOL]

The markets don't have to pull back strongly, either several sectors can crash or our technical indicators can let out some steam or we have a large number of stocks trading in the oversold ranges that start showing up on our list.

We scan the market for certain stocks, when they pass all the stated categories, they make it to our list. From that list, we manually start to look at the weekly, monthly and sometimes quarterly charts. So when we have 200 stocks or more that make it to this list, then it means we should start looking to open positions even if the markets are trading in the overbought ranges but we should deploy no more than 1/3rd of our funds. Right now we have 90 stocks on this list. If a stock makes to this list, it does not mean we are going to open a position. It just means it has met with the minimum criteria. So if this list hits 200 before the markets let out some steam and or our indicators pullback we would issue at least 5 new plays in the Main and higher risk portfolios (for a total of 10).

When the markets are dropping one has to be patient for them to bottom, the same applies when they are trending upwards. In March when the markets were tanking, many stocks that we initially got into continued to trend lower. Look how many positions we opened in KEY for example, but those that held and understood that fear pays poorly faired well, The same applied to CUB, AIN, etc, etc.

Now when the markets are trending upwards you have to learn how to control the greed factor. Greed and Fear both pay poorly. So just sit and pat yourself on the back for doing a good job so far. And everyone knows that when we turn bullish we start to fire plays out like a machine gun. So while we may be quiet, you can bet your bottom dollar that a time will come when we start to fire out a large number of plays. So enjoy the quiet because when we start to fire, we will fire a serious volley of new plays.

[gnosis12]

So the Nasdaq just jumped past 13.5k, a Sol prediction (suspicion) from the last update.

This forum is good moral support for me. I am also heavy in cash but seem to be in good company. I'm visualizing patience paying off well.

As we have a bullish crossover on the Nasdaq’s weekly charts, the odds are relatively high that the Nasdaq will at least test the 13000 to 13500 ranges. Market Update Dec 31, 2020

It has now traded within the stated ranges so the odds are still relatively decent that it can trade to and past the 13500 ranges and the MACD’s are still trading in the slightly oversold ranges. A weekly close above 13390 is likely to lead to a test of the13500 to 13800 ranges, with a possible overshoot to the 14500 ranges.

Based on the last update Sol stated it could trade as high as 14,500. Even if it moves to that level I am going to focus on the next opportunity rather than chasing this market which is a lot easier said than done but damn it I am trying . I remember what happened before the 2008 finanical crisis. Everyone felt the sky was the limit and then it all ended. As we are in super bull market I don't think this market is ready to crash yet, but some blood letting is warranted. while it has taken me time to understanding Sol's trading principles I can now see that they work and I don't want to rock the boat based on emotion.

So while there is the urge to jump in, i will continue to read good books and enjoy the gains on the open positions I have in the Tactical Investment portfolios. Some good booze also helps from time to time

[qfactors]

The markets don't have to pull back strongly, either several sectors can crash or our technical indicators can let out some steam or we have a large number of stocks trading in the oversold ranges that start showing up on our list.

We scan the market for certain stocks, when they pass all the stated categories, they make it to our list. From that list, we manually start to look at the weekly, monthly and sometimes quarterly charts. So when we have 200 stocks or more that make it to this list, then it means we should start looking to open positions even if the markets are trading in the overbought ranges but we should deploy no more than 1/3rd of our funds. Right now we have 90 stocks on this list. If a stock makes to this list, it does not mean we are going to open a position. It just means it has met with the minimum criteria. So if this list hits 200 before the markets let out some steam and or our indicators pullback we would issue at least 5 new plays in the Main and higher risk portfolios (for a total of 10).

When the markets are dropping one has to be patient for them to bottom, the same applies when they are trending upwards. In March when the markets were tanking, many stocks that we initially got into continued to trend lower. Look how many positions we opened in KEY for example, but those that held and understood that fear pays poorly faired well, The same applied to CUB, AIN, etc, etc.

Now when the markets are trending upwards you have to learn how to control the greed factor. Greed and Fear both pay poorly. So just sit and pat yourself on the back for doing a good job so far. And everyone knows that when we turn bullish we start to fire plays out like a machine gun. So while we may be quiet, you can bet your bottom dollar that a time will come when we start to fire out a large number of plays. So enjoy the quiet because when we start to fire, we will fire a serious volley of new plays.

Thank you Sol for the insights on how you invest in both down and up markets. The last year has been excellent in demonstrating the effectiveness of your strategies against fear and greed.

[bpcw]

Yes, thanks Sol and other's for your input, much appreciated as it helps with keeping one's discipline, I've been enjoying a good book and watching a boy movie with my lad tonight, then a nice glass of vino , nice cup of tea now!

[Yodean]

Week ending March 24, 2021:

Bulls: 50.9%

Neutral: 28.5%

Bears: 20.6%


https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

[SOL]

And the bullish sentiment is likely to drop very fast from there but time will tell. The masses continue to look for reasons to screw their lives. They took a nice beating over COVID and now they are cruising for another bruising

[Yodean]

For the week ending April 7th:

Bulls: 56.9%

Neutrals: 22.7%

Bears: 20.4%


https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

[AstuteShift]

it will be interesting to see how SOL will separate fake bulls and fake bears, AAII is a good tool however this market will make a lot of good tools obsolete along with old fashioned TA

[SOL]

For the week ending April 7th:

Bulls: 56.9%

Neutrals: 22.7%

Bears: 20.4%


https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

Our current data is showing

Bulls at 52

Neutrals 24

Bears 24

The weekly charts are still not trading in the extremely overbought ranges, but we should get ready for some volatility and possibly the Dow shedding 1000 points very quickly and possibly up to 1500. The Nasdaq should in theory experience a milder move

[bpcw]

Two trading platforms I am on that provide sentiment indicators show the opposite and bullish sentiment has dropped significantly over the last few weeks.

What weight and why should we put on aaii as opposed to other sources?

[SOL]

Might have to take to reading Tea leaves or talking to skeletons. On a more serious note, this is why we are allocating more resources to fine-tuning the data. Hopefully, in about 30 to 60 days we might be able to come out with a rough formula but the final tool we are looking at will take a lot more work. In the meantime, nothing beats asking friends, relatives and other individuals who know next to nothing for their opinion.

[bpcw]

Might have to take to reading Tea leaves or talking to skeletons. On a more serious note, this is why we are allocating more resources to fine-tuning the data. Hopefully, in about 30 to 60 days we might be able to come out with a rough formula but the final tool we are looking at will take a lot more work. In the meantime, nothing beats asking friends, relatives and other individuals who know next to nothing for their opinion.

Lol, will you be teaching us the art of tea leaves reading soon, I've been thinking about getting my own crystal ball!!!

One of my nephews wants to get into crypto currencies, is the end near?!

A really good guage is the BBC news (British Bullshitting Corporation), I remember in 2011 them mentioning how much gold had gone up and that experts (so called) were saying it could go up much further, right at the top!

[Yodean]

Polls by their very nature have biases and limitations.

Also, given that a lot of trading is currently being performed by computer trading algorithms (CTAs), sentiment data may not be what it used to be, unless there is a way to incorporate what the big CTAs are doing/thinking? into measures of mass sentiment.

With all that said, I do find the extreme ranges of the readings somewhat useful at times. For example, when bearish readings near 20% or lower, I tend to take some profits and increase my cash allocation a bit.

I also use forums and mass media as a rough guide to sentiment. There is a lot of bullish sentiment expressed on financial forums currently, including this one and the A.I.T.T.'s.

To my eyes, there is a definite trend towards greater aggression in making money as quickly as possible in the markets, with novice traders wanting more action, and not assessing the risk side of the risk-reward equation sufficiently.

Still, trends tend to go on longer and deeper than one expects, in both directions.

We shall see. My new batch of tea leaves is due to arrive soon.

[SOL]

Use any every source of data available, its starring at you, so why not, use it all. A true observer has no bonds when it comes to trading/investing. Bonds equate to emotions. Via everyhing calmly and cooly.

It is funny new traders are scared to jump when the going gets tough but when it gets easy they are willing to jump in head over heels. Usually head first which probably affects their future decision making processes. The best time to buy is when you think its not a good time to jump in and vice versa, until you master the core principles of MP, Once you understand these principles then you won't need to filter your biases.

One way to utlise sentiment data is to take a moving average of the data and then you can plot that data in terms of Standard deviations bands and use that data to look for extreme moves. Extreme moves usually represent opportunity

Having said that with the Help of the genius of statistics (Qfactors, if we agrees to this mission) we will start to build and provide one tool to AI trend traders as a test and finer version of it to Trend accelerator subscribers. Eventually we might make it avilalbe to everyone if it proves to be robust.