Geopoltical Interim Update may 4, 2022

[Yodean]

I assume I will have to get on Interactive Brokers for that one? As it does not show up on Schwab.

I managed to accumulate 4 lots of RSX in the early days of the Russian Special Operations in Ukraine, but the ETF has been frozen since.

[SOL]

I assume I will have to get on Interactive Brokers for that one? As it does not show up on Schwab.

I managed to accumulate 4 lots of RSX in the early days of the Russian Special Operations in Ukraine, but the ETF has been frozen since.

One good bet was to get roubles like scott did when they spiked. I was able to get some at an average price of 140 to one dollar, but could not get as much as I wanted as everyone seemed to know that the Rouble would reverse only those that panicked sold. Having said that, it will be hard to invest there until they allow Russian assets to be bought and sold. I think even IBB won't be able to help you. A good option soon for the daring will be to buy property in Russia. The trend is about to turn bullish, but when it does it will mark the top for Europe. Lets hope it remain in the neutral zone for a bit longer so it gives time to those European nations that having second thoughts to make deals with Russia. One nation in Eastern Europe that will most likely do well and could end up becoming a power house is Hungary as they have indicated they will not support any energy sanctions against Russia and are already paying for Gas in Roubles.

[SOL]

While the trend indicated that the Rouble would bounce, even we are surprised at the speed at which it is recovering. The Countries in the EU that want to survive need to make deals with Russia now or burn. Only one country stands out and that is Hungary. Stefk you might have to forget Bulgaria.

Look at the Rouble it is about to challenge 60, this is almost unbelievable

[Yodean]

Look at the Rouble it is about to challenge 60, this is almost unbelievable

The problem as I see it is that when King USD spikes up in the next 6 to 18 months, all other currencies will have to take the knee, and maybe bow, too. Some vaseline may be needed.

https://youtu.be/PJjgnia_avk

[Cinnamon]

The dollar has already spiked significantly since Sol first mentioned the dollar bull sometime in 2020. It continues to move higher but as noted by Sol the ruble is ignoring the dollar. It has been gaining strength almost on a daily basis. Its up almost 20% against the USD in roughly 1 month, that is mega move in the currency markets.

The dollar might gain strength against other currencies but will it do so against the Ruble.

[Budge]

The dollar has already spiked significantly since Sol first mentioned the dollar bull sometime in 2020. It continues to move higher but as noted by Sol the ruble is ignoring the dollar. It has been gaining strength almost on a daily basis. Its up almost 20% against the USD in roughly 1 month, that is mega move in the currency markets.

The dollar might gain strength against other currencies but will it do so against the Ruble.

Long-term which do I prefer, the US $ as the least ugly fiat or Rouble backed by the huge wealth of all those raw materials that the High Cabal want?

[SOL]

The dollar has already spiked significantly since Sol first mentioned the dollar bull sometime in 2020. It continues to move higher but as noted by Sol the ruble is ignoring the dollar. It has been gaining strength almost on a daily basis. Its up almost 20% against the USD in roughly 1 month, that is mega move in the currency markets.

The dollar might gain strength against other currencies but will it do so against the Ruble.

Long-term which do I prefer, the US $ as the least ugly fiat or Rouble backed by the huge wealth of all those raw materials that the High Cabal want?

A tectonic move is occurring and the pace is far from glacial

[Yodean]

Long-term which do I prefer, the US $ as the least ugly fiat or Rouble backed by the huge wealth of all those raw materials that the High Cabal want?

USD is topping on an interim basis currently. USD-Ruble pair trading is currently very illiquid, huge ask-bid spread, etc. - stinking of pure manipulation. Of course, so is the USD, so the question becomes, which is the more manipulated, currently?

Ruble.

King USD will likely stay fairly strong for the next 5 - 10 years. All other currencies will continue to bend the knee, and some will kiss the ground.

[SOL]

Long-term which do I prefer, the US $ as the least ugly fiat or Rouble backed by the huge wealth of all those raw materials that the High Cabal want?

USD is topping on an interim basis currently. USD-Ruble pair trading is currently very illiquid, huge ask-bid spread, etc. - stinking of pure manipulation. Of course, so is the USD, so the question becomes, which is the more manipulated, currently?

Ruble.

King USD will likely stay fairly strong for the next 5 - 10 years. All other currencies will continue to bend the knee, and some will kiss the ground.

True but possibly with a big caveat, the USD will remain strong when compared to the basket of other western currencies, all of which have massive amounts of debt. As an example I give you the IDR (Indonesian Rupiah), it should have been trading north of 15,000 to the USD instead it is holding well under 14.5. Indonesia is another country full with natural resources, albeit much less than Russia but still very well endowed. Now imagine what will happen when Putin ask's all unfriendly nations to pay for every resource that they buy from Russia in Rouble. We have a battle the likes of which occurs once in several hundred years unfolding now. If Russia pulls this off and it looks like they will succeed based on the way the Rouble is acting, then that country is going to enter into a golden period that will last 100's of years. So this battle In Ukraine is just the cusp of what is really at stake here.

[Yodean]

True but possibly with a big caveat, the USD will remain strong when compared to the basket of other western currencies, all of which have massive amounts of debt. We have a battle the likes of which occurs once in several hundred years unfolding now. If Russia pulls this off and it looks like they will succeed based on the way the Rouble is acting, then that country is going to enter into a golden period that will last 100's of years. So this battle In Ukraine is just the cusp of what is really at stake here.

I think it's a bit too early to call. Early days of this War of Currencies.

When two big, powerful tigers engage in a fight to the death, the real winner is neither beast.

The true winner is the smaller Panda, watching quietly from the bushes, who walks in after the fight is over - one tiger is dead, the other severely wounded - and the Panda calmly finishes off the "victorious" tiger.

China is the Panda, or the Third Force, if you prefer. The real winner will be China, who will play both sides against the other. Real _Art of War_ sh*t.

[Budge]

Long-term which do I prefer, the US $ as the least ugly fiat or Rouble backed by the huge wealth of all those raw materials that the High Cabal want?

USD is topping on an interim basis currently. USD-Ruble pair trading is currently very illiquid, huge ask-bid spread, etc. - stinking of pure manipulation. Of course, so is the USD, so the question becomes, which is the more manipulated, currently?

Ruble.

King USD will likely stay fairly strong for the next 5 - 10 years. All other currencies will continue to bend the knee, and some will kiss the ground.

I hear the train a comin'
It's rolling round the bend
The tracks are soon divided, and this will never end
One to the West is goin', where the dollar reigns supreme
But the other Yuan based system will destroy this long held dream

Bifurcation is a comin'
It's picking up its speed
It'll wash away the dollar greed as easy as can be
The Eastern World will laugh and cheer as the US sinks so low
The only option they have left is take us all to war

They'll take us all to war!

[SOL]

The President signed the Executive Order

This Executive Order was signed in order to protect the national interests of the Russian Federation in response to unfriendly actions, which contradict international law, undertaken by the US, and joined by other foreign states and international organisations, and aimed at illegally depriving the Russian Federation, its citizens and legal entities of their property rights and/or restricting their property rights.

The Presidential Executive Order says federal and regional government authorities, other government authorities, local self-government bodies, and organisations and individuals under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation shall operate on the premise that special economic measures are to be applied to certain legal entities, individuals and organisations under their control, starting on the day the Executive Order comes into force.

The document introduces a ban on government authorities at all levels, as well as organisations and individuals under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation, implementing agreements (including foreign trade contracts) with legal entities, individuals and organisations under their control that are subject to the special economic measures, and on executing obligations under existing agreements (including foreign trade contracts) to individuals under the sanctions where such obligations are not satisfied or are partially satisfied.

The Executive Order also bans conducting financial operations whose beneficiaries are individuals under sanctions.

In addition, the document imposes a ban on exporting products or raw materials manufactured or extracted in Russia when they are delivered to individuals under sanctions, or by individuals under sanctions to other individuals.

The Government has been instructed to approve the list of individuals under sanctions within ten days and define additional criteria for transactions whose implementation and obligations shall be banned under the Executive Order.

http://en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/68347

[Centeron631]

Lest we forget in addition the consumer/economy plays a role in the driving force of stock market prices as well as other factors including but not limited to inflation, geopolitical, market manipulators, supply delivery, and ofcourse covid. I keep thinking there is still a covid overlay for the average Mary consumer- maybe all the nest egg has dried up, no more government handouts etc. retailers,manufacturing,wholesale, and supply businesses still on the edge of bankruptcy as a result except those in the right industries. I would surmise that the avg. and below avg consumer is less interested right now in buying high tech.

A friend of mine in my local city shareclub decided early last fall that the places to invest were agriculture and oil and gas - in hind site i wish i had followed her rather than overweighting in high tech as her protfolio was up around 25% in 2021. (eg she invested in corn - still thinking these two sectors might have room to keep on giving)

Anyway imo right sectors at right time run by consumer demand still a strong factor not to be overlooked - some food for thought (some double intendo on "food"):

https://nielseniq.com/global/en/insight ... consumers/

[chrisbang]

The President signed the Executive Order

This Executive Order was signed in order to protect the national interests of the Russian Federation in response to unfriendly actions, which contradict international law, undertaken by the US, and joined by other foreign states and international organisations, and aimed at illegally depriving the Russian Federation, its citizens and legal entities of their property rights and/or restricting their property rights.

The Presidential Executive Order says federal and regional government authorities, other government authorities, local self-government bodies, and organisations and individuals under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation shall operate on the premise that special economic measures are to be applied to certain legal entities, individuals and organisations under their control, starting on the day the Executive Order comes into force.

The document introduces a ban on government authorities at all levels, as well as organisations and individuals under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation, implementing agreements (including foreign trade contracts) with legal entities, individuals and organisations under their control that are subject to the special economic measures, and on executing obligations under existing agreements (including foreign trade contracts) to individuals under the sanctions where such obligations are not satisfied or are partially satisfied.

The Executive Order also bans conducting financial operations whose beneficiaries are individuals under sanctions.

In addition, the document imposes a ban on exporting products or raw materials manufactured or extracted in Russia when they are delivered to individuals under sanctions, or by individuals under sanctions to other individuals.

The Government has been instructed to approve the list of individuals under sanctions within ten days and define additional criteria for transactions whose implementation and obligations shall be banned under the Executive Order.

http://en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/68347

Seems this bear market has some additional room to run. AAPL starting to crack and should bring everything down once it falls into value category like GOOGL and other profitable tech monsters. You're right, those selling out of fear will be dreading their emotional poor decision-making sometime in the near future. 99% of what I read is negative, people are scared, and this seems an opportunity at the moment.

Looking forward to the next market update.

[Budge]

Seems this bear market has some additional room to run. AAPL starting to crack and should bring everything down once it falls into value category like GOOGL and other profitable tech monsters. You're right, those selling out of fear will be dreading their emotional poor decision-making sometime in the near future. 99% of what I read is negative, people are scared, and this seems an opportunity at the moment.

Looking forward to the next market update.

AAPL cracks. Weekly chart shows it's broken below lower Bollinger and the middle indicator, ADX, is turning up indicating it goes lower. Lower indicator is MACD.



Next chart is monthly. ADX and MACD are rolling over. Support at blue line unlikely to hold, look out low 100s