Interim Update Sept 2, 2021

[Yodean]

Let's see how this unfolds but the bullish sentiment is not rising as it should, what we see rising are levels of uncertainty

I play around with my own sentiment indicators a bit, and on balance, it's been following what I call a W.O.W. (Wall of Worry) pattern - the market moves a bit in either direction, there is an exaggerated response in terms of those on either end (i.e. bulls or bears) panicking disproportionately into the neutral camp, etc. The overall trend still appears to be up, as you noted. So the markets appear to be climbing this WOW, as opposed to falling down it. Still, there could be a small slip on the way up . . .

[Triplethought]

We aren't talking about the reiteration of a decade-long Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini type call for a stock market crash due to the always easy excessive valuation and bloated government debt arguments (the S&P 500 is up 506% since March 1, 2009). Instead, we are referencing stock market correction calls of at least 10% by some of the brightest minds on Wall Street, whose work I really respect.

“You should always be expecting a 10% correction. If you’re investing in equities, you should be prepared for that at any time,” Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson told Yahoo Finance Live. “The bottom line for us... is the risk reward is not particularly great at the index level from here, no matter what the outcome is. That’s why we don’t have any upside to the S&P for the rest of the year.”

Deutsche Bank strategist Binky Chadha also recently cautioned on the chance for a near-term correction in markets. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian has also issued a warning on the market of her own. I would even read Ark Invest's Cathie Wood recent selling of Tesla's stock as a red flag on high multiple stocks.

For one, peek under the hood of the market and you will see evidence of a rolling correction (as Wilson likes to refer to it as) that could soon bubble up to the headline-grabbing major indices. About 90% of Russell 2000 stocks have already fallen into a correction, as Bloomberg notes. Morgan Stanley's work reveals that the average stock in the S&P 500 is down 10% from its 52-week high. Outflows from cyclical stocks since June 15 have tallied $15 billion, according to a recent Jefferies note.

According to recent trading updates, Ark Invest's Wood has been selling shares of Tesla in her Ark Innovation, Ark Next Generation Internet and Ark Autonomous Tech & Robotics ETFs. The 180,000 shares sold by Wood amount to $139 million, per Bloomberg. Tesla's stock is up 21% in the past three months, hence it's not a shock to see Wood selling a bit of her most high-profile position. Wood recently told Yahoo Finance Live that she sees fair value for Tesla at $3,000 a share (Tesla shares are currently trading at $736), so I wouldn't expect her to completely exit the name that put her on the map anytime soon (if at all). Wood continues to view Tesla as years ahead of others in the globally expanding EV market.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suddenly ... 30650.html

Everyone is expecting a big one, and therefore may be the big one will be delayed until no one is expecting it. Let's see how this unfolds but the bullish sentiment is not rising as it should, what we see rising are levels of uncertainty

Based on the latest market update you are very slowly "Mozying for the door". In fact you redefine mozy as it is more slowly than I would have expected, with you lowering only a few exit points. I would have expected (for example) an order to close BCO (one of the only plays above 75%). In fact I was expecting you to close anything above 25% gains right now. (IRDM, APPS)

[George1010]

I subscribe to another service that has a similar chart to the first chart SOL put up under the interesting charts. the one that looks at negative earnings. The other guy thinks its a negative, but SOL does not view it as a big deal. SOL does make some good points but now I am in quandary, is it a positive, negative, or neutral development. Would love to hear some other opinions

[SOL]

Based on the latest market update you are very slowly "Mozying for the door". In fact you redefine mozy as it is more slowly than I would have expected, with you lowering only a few exit points. I would have expected (for example) an order to close BCO (one of the only plays above 75%). In fact I was expecting you to close anything above 25% gains right now. (IRDM, APPS)

The data is far from conclusive and it is possible that the Markets could pull back slightly and then mount a very strong rally. Having said that we have always stated the following. When in doubt sit out. No one has ever gone broke banking profits.

[Triplethought]

Based on the latest market update you are very slowly "Mozying for the door". In fact you redefine mozy as it is more slowly than I would have expected, with you lowering only a few exit points. I would have expected (for example) an order to close BCO (one of the only plays above 75%). In fact I was expecting you to close anything above 25% gains right now. (IRDM, APPS)

The data is far from conclusive and it is possible that the Markets could pull back slightly and then mount a very strong rally. Having said that we have always stated the following. When in doubt sit out. No one has ever gone broke banking profits.

Thanks Sol. I agree and understand about the crystal ball problem. I've exited some of the plays in market update that we have sell orders on, probably a little early on some of them. I'm cooling my jets on exiting AI plays until I see your update (I'm guessing you will HOLD on many of them). And on Trend Blazer plays that are red so I'm gonna HODL and hope those bad boys turn before the strike date.

[Eric]

seems i have lost track of this stock continental resources. Is this still in play - it is up 160% from when i bought . Checked back in Mu various one year but no hits. thks

I checked my brokerage as far back as 2018 and I have never owned CLR. It is only one key away on the keyboard from CLF which I do own and mentioned here once.

[Budge]

seems i have lost track of this stock continental resources. Is this still in play - it is up 160% from when i bought . Checked back in Mu various one year but no hits. thks

I checked my brokerage as far back as 2018 and I have never owned CLR. It is only one key away on the keyboard from CLF which I do own and mentioned here once.

It appears in AI Trend Trader July 2, 2020:

Deploy one lot in the 10.55 to 11.80 ranges and one lot in the 8.70 to 9.30 ranges. Place a stop at 6.00

Then disappears August 5, 2020:

Cancel CLR and replace it with the SSP