Alternative news sources and Interesting articles to examine

[LoriPrecisely]

I view that as a MU failure more than a "me" failure. Saying the trend is up all year when it has clearly been down most of the year was a serious mistake... and it should be admitted to rather than saying "oh well the markets generally move up over long periods of time". Such a statement is an abject failure of the fundamental nature of the newsletter's purpose.

It's easy to point the finger at the kettle and call it black when you might be the pot. Using your analogy,
why did you not listen to our call where we clearly stated (and we did so several times) well in advance of the event that the market would experience two corrections and provided specific timelines? The reason is simple: no matter what the trend states or what we say, most will not pay attention unless we continuously bang the table. In other words, individuals focus on what they want; this is not bad or good. It is just an observation. Hence the new format.

Additionally, when it suited your needs, you acted independently and exited many positions well below the suggested targets for low-risk takers.

However, the new format completely removes the need to say, "it's your fault" because the risk factor is clearly stated

One should also remember that It is impossible to gauge the risk status of everyone. What is low risk for me might be extremely high risk for you. Hence another reason for the new format.

Finally, there is a saying that no matter what you do, you can't satisfy everyone, and individuals conveniently adjust their risk status on the fly. If I put ten glasses of water on the table and told you only one contained poison, you were dying of thirst. Would you drink from one of them? Your chance of not being poisoned is 90%. Chances are you would not take the risk. If I told you that one glass had a bacteria that might give you the runs, you would likely be willing to take the risk. Now apply that to the markets.

As for our trend indicator, as I stated before, it's based on very long timelines. Our standing policy is that every disaster is an opportunity waiting to be discovered, and this indicator has helped us spot numerous opportunities for over a decade. However, we did pay attention to what subscribers stated. This is why so many changes were implemented over such a short period.

FYI, the trend indicator might turn neutral. Now the obvious conclusion would be to assume that is a bad thing. Well, it could actually prove to be a highly positive development. I will elucidate on this if and when it happens.

The reason TT is pointing the finger is because he is buying a service from you. He is trusting your skill and knowledge and expertise to guide his decisions in the market.
I don't understand you continually saying it has something to do with risk factor. I think there is a miscommunication. It seems you are more likely referring to time factor? The reason I say that is because then you go on to state that, long-term, your plays will eventually increase in value. That is a time factor, not a risk factor. In fact, I don't understand why you keep falling back on the risk factor excuse, to explain why we have all lost money for the past year.
When you refer to disaster and opportunity, buying in January was definitely not an opportunity, and selling right now is selling at the bottom of the trend.
How do you not call THAT a disaster?

[Cinnamon]

I agree with this (that foreign students dominate our engineering colleges) but disagree with the conclusion. We aren't stealing the talented. We are educating the world (especially Chinese in great numbers) and then stupidly not offering them full citizenship in our country. We are NOT recruiting talented people (except in small numbers). We should be brain draining the SHIT out of the rest of the world by rubber stamping citizenship for any engineer, nurse, doctor, programmer, and any other sought after people. We aren't doing that. Instead we are allowing uneducated fruit pickers and restaurant workers to stream across the border unchecked. These are people we won't need in 10 years due to advances in AI. They are helpful now but a hindrance in the long term. I agree that we are taking advantage of our dollar's reserve status... but it isn't at the level we should be using it.

The Chinese invented gunpowder. Big fuckin deal. The British didn't corrupt their society in terms of technological advance. The Arabs invented numbers and algebra. Big deal. Show me an arab made plane or automobile today. Even with their vast government oil wealth arabs can't manufacture a fucking car. Their best idea is to build the 'city of the future" in the desert. Meh. Turkey? They make rugs for christ sakes. Africa? Africa is a joke from a technology and governance stand point. That continent is in no danger of overtaking anyone for anything. Society is about what have you done for me lately. The fact is those societies didn't keep up in the 18th and 19th and 20th centuries. Not even close. At least China is smart enough to try to steal there way back into the running. But that doesn't forgive the CCP tactics.

I'm not dismissing the evils of colonialism. But we aren't going to change it. And 2 wrongs don't make a right. China is a menace.

.

No Arab nation in was ever a superpower, China was, so there is a big difference. Look how we used BS excuses to destroy Huawei just because they were on their way to becoming a global power. China knocked us out in the 5g race and we started to slander them because we could not take being second. Their bullet train network is fantastic. Our train network is stuck in the stone ages in comparison.

If the USD was not the world reserve currency, I am not sure we would be in the enviable position we are today. There is no way we would have been able to print 5 trillion USD during the COVID pandemic without our currency crumbling, but because its the reserve currency we got away with it, while causing hell in the rest of the world

[outof thebox]

https://youtu.be/SKEWD4-nwyA

[Triplethought]

I view that as a MU failure more than a "me" failure. Saying the trend is up all year when it has clearly been down most of the year was a serious mistake... and it should be admitted to rather than saying "oh well the markets generally move up over long periods of time". Such a statement is an abject failure of the fundamental nature of the newsletter's purpose.

It's easy to point the finger at the kettle and call it black when you might be the pot. Using your analogy,
why did you not listen to our call where we clearly stated (and we did so several times) well in advance of the event that the market would experience two corrections and provided specific timelines? The reason is simple: no matter what the trend states or what we say, most will not pay attention unless we continuously bang the table. In other words, individuals focus on what they want; this is not bad or good. It is just an observation. Hence the new format.

Additionally, when it suited your needs, you acted independently and exited many positions well below the suggested targets for low-risk takers.

However, the new format completely removes the need to say, "it's your fault" because the risk factor is clearly stated

One should also remember that It is impossible to gauge the risk status of everyone. What is low risk for me might be extremely high risk for you. Hence another reason for the new format.

Finally, there is a saying that no matter what you do, you can't satisfy everyone, and individuals conveniently adjust their risk status on the fly. If I put ten glasses of water on the table and told you only one contained poison, you were dying of thirst. Would you drink from one of them? Your chance of not being poisoned is 90%. Chances are you would not take the risk. If I told you that one glass had a bacteria that might give you the runs, you would likely be willing to take the risk. Now apply that to the markets.

As for our trend indicator, as I stated before, it's based on very long timelines. Our standing policy is that every disaster is an opportunity waiting to be discovered, and this indicator has helped us spot numerous opportunities for over a decade. However, we did pay attention to what subscribers stated. This is why so many changes were implemented over such a short period.

FYI, the trend indicator might turn neutral. Now the obvious conclusion would be to assume that is a bad thing. Well, it could actually prove to be a highly positive development. I will elucidate on this if and when it happens.

Sol, I hear what you're saying. You are correct that I exited many positions below suggested targets, which is a reflection of my own skitishness. But that conservatism has also mitigated my losses this year to only 10%. I have also learned that your picks are generally better than my own, even if I think you are way too bullish in most cases.

As I've stated before having a trend indicator that is a green up arrow in perpetuity because the market generally trends up is not a helpful metric at all. I'm glad you're considering changes there.

My harsh criticism doesn't mean i don't value your experience, judgement and hard work. I DO and that's why I'll continue to subscribe and ask questions and try to learn from you. I realize no one can have a crystal ball and the lessons I've learned since coming here are invaluable.

[SOL]

Sol, I hear what you're saying. You are correct that I exited many positions below suggested targets, which is a reflection of my own skitishness. But that conservatism has also mitigated my losses this year to only 10%. I have also learned that your picks are generally better than my own, even if I think you are way too bullish in most cases.

As I've stated before having a trend indicator that is a green up arrow in perpetuity because the market generally trends up is not a helpful metric at all. I'm glad you're considering changes there.

My harsh criticism doesn't mean i don't value your experience, judgement and hard work. I DO and that's why I'll continue to subscribe and ask questions and try to learn from you. I realize no one can have a crystal ball and the lessons I've learned since coming here are invaluable.

You are one of the few that can give as good as you get, and you do so in a pretty objective manner. It is because of this that I responded the way that I did. I mean this as a compliment. If anything came off as condescending or me trying to attack you, then I apologize. That was not my intent. I place your criticism in the constructive category. While it can be strong you are genuinely trying to provide helpful suggestions.

Develop at your own pace; there is nothing wrong with being skittish if you don't feel comfortable. There is a saying when in doubt it's better to sit out or another one when unsure it's better to fold than hold, but that should come with a caveat, one should avoid folding when fear is running high.

Given that bullish sentiment appears to have a new trading range (at least for the past 12), with 39 being somewhat c comparable to readings if 56-60 used to be, say, in 2021, you got out towards the mid-range.

[AstuteShift]

At the end of the day, you have to make investing decisions on your own

If you have read previous market issues, sometimes the market does not give you anything and the picture is not clear on the short term timeline, hence it’s good to sit and wait

Overall, historically, markets always trend upwards since the big players want to make a killing but they do not want to make it obvious.

SOL is a student just like all of us, however the wisdom he passes is very much appreciated. I’ve learned a ton being part of this service and implemented a ton of his suggestions. I’d say my life has improved in terms of thinking more critically, not just the trading/investing side

[scott]

At the end of the day, you have to make investing decisions on your own

If you have read previous market issues, sometimes the market does not give you anything and the picture is not clear on the short term timeline, hence it’s good to sit and wait

Overall, historically, markets always trend upwards since the big players want to make a killing but they do not want to make it obvious.

SOL is a student just like all of us, however the wisdom he passes is very much appreciated. I’ve learned a ton being part of this service and implemented a ton of his suggestions. I’d say my life has improved in terms of thinking more critically, not just the trading/investing side

Here here! Or is it Hear hear, pretty sure 'andlestick 'arry could elucidate.

[outof thebox]

The Cultural and Spiritual Legacy of Fiat Inflation

The notion that inflation is harmful is a staple of economic science. But most textbooks underrate the extent of the harm, because they define inflation much too narrowly as a lasting decrease of the purchasing power of money (PPM), and also because they pay scant attention to the concrete forms of inflation. To appreciate the disruptive nature of inflation in its full extent we must keep in mind that it springs from a violation of the fundamental rules of society.

Inflation is what happens when people increase the money supply by fraud, imposition, and breach of contract. Invariably it produces three characteristic consequences: (1) it benefits the perpetrators at the expense of all other money users; (2) it allows the accumulation of debt beyond the level debts could reach on the free market; and (3) it reduces the PPM below the level it would have reached on the free market.

While these three consequences are bad enough, things get much worse once inflation is encouraged and promoted by the state (fiat inflation). The government’s fiat makes inflation perennial, and as a result we observe the formation of inflation-specific institutions and habits. Thus fiat inflation leaves a characteristic cultural and spiritual stain on human society. In what follows, we will take a closer look at some aspects of this legacy.

I. Hyper-centralized Government
Inflation benefits the government that controls it, not only at the expense of the population at large, but also at the expense of all secondary and tertiary governments. It is a well-known fact that the European kings, during the rise of their nation states in the 17th and 18th centuries, crushed the major vestiges of intermediate power. The democratic nation states of the 19th and 20th centuries completed the centralization of power that had been begun under the kings. The economic driving force of this process was inflation, which at that point was entirely in the hands of the central state apparatus. More than any other economic reason, it made the nation state irresistible. And thus it contributed, indirectly at least, to the popularity of nationalistic ideologies, which in the 20th century ushered into a frenetic worshipping of the nation state.

Inflation spurs the growth of central governments. It allows these governments to grow larger than they could become in a free society. And it allows them to monopolize governmental functions to an extent that would not occur under a natural production of money. This comes at the expense of all forms of intermediate government, and of course at the expense of civil society at large. The inflation-sponsored centralization of power turns the average citizen more and more into an isolated social atom. All of his social bonds are controlled by the central state, which also provides most of the services that formerly were provided by other social entities such as family and local government. At the same time, the central direction of the state apparatus is removed from the daily life of its protégés.

II. Fiat Inflation and War
Among the most gruesome consequences of fiat money, and of paper money in particular, is its ability to extend the length of wars. The destructions of war have the healthy effect of cooling down initial war frenzies. The more protracted and destructive a war becomes, therefore, the less is the population inclined to support it financially through taxes and the purchase of public bonds. Fiat inflation allows the government to ignore the fiscal resistance of its citizens and to maintain the war effort on its present level, or even to increase that level. The government just prints the notes it needs to buy cannons and boots.

This is exactly what happened in the two world wars of the 20th century, at least in the case of the European states. The governments of France, Germany, Italy, Russia, and the United Kingdom covered a large part of their expenses through inflation. It is of course difficult to evaluate any precise quantitative impact, but it is not unreasonable to assume that fiat inflation prolonged both wars by many months or even one or two years. If we consider that the killings have reached their climax toward the end of the war, we must assume that many millions of lives could have been saved.

https://mises.org/library/cultural-and- ... -inflation

[outof thebox]

At the end of the day, you have to make investing decisions on your own

If you have read previous market issues, sometimes the market does not give you anything and the picture is not clear on the short term timeline, hence it’s good to sit and wait

Overall, historically, markets always trend upwards since the big players want to make a killing but they do not want to make it obvious.

SOL is a student just like all of us, however the wisdom he passes is very much appreciated. I’ve learned a ton being part of this service and implemented a ton of his suggestions. I’d say my life has improved in terms of thinking more critically, not just the trading/investing side

Right on Astute. We are all students trying to improve our skills and ability to spot what is or isn't going on in the markets. I pay no heed to individuals that claim to be experts or are unusually arrogant, then I use them as good contrarian indicators.

[Yodean]

China is only a menace because the West (really the US) has made it so. The arch manipulators must always deflect. They know they have screwed things up to the max and revert to the age-old way to escape. When all else fails take them to war.

*****

This cover confirms my base case that it is quite unlikely that CCP will take over Formosa in a kinetic fashion, at least for several years.

Don't forget our previous bet - you are doomed!

[scott]

China is only a menace because the West (really the US) has made it so. The arch manipulators must always deflect. They know they have screwed things up to the max and revert to the age-old way to escape. When all else fails take them to war.

This cover confirms my base case that it is quite unlikely that CCP will take over Formosa in a kinetic fashion, at least for several years.

Don't forget our previous bet - you are doomed!

I didn't know only 14 countries recognize Taiwan as a country.

Earlier this week, Honduran President Xiomara Castro announced Tuesday that her government will seek diplomatic relations with China, a move which in turn implies severing ties with Taiwan.
The switch, if made official, would leave Taiwan recognized by only 13 countries, including Vatican City.

Nicaragua similarly broke longstanding ties with Taiwan in December 2021, declaring "Taiwan is an inalienable part of the Chinese territory."

Giménez argued that developments in Honduras highlight China's strategy to "coerce" and then "corrupt" public offices to force policy changes and gain support for its One-China policy.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bi ... 6a5e&ei=58

[SOL]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-Wx9Yd ... litaryBlog

[Budge]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-Wx9Yd ... litaryBlog

Then we have Sen. Mark Kelly belittling Russian fighter pilots:

Sen. Mark Kelly flew with Russian pilots in the Navy and with NASA, and he said the Russian fighter jet running into a US drone shows 'how incompetent they are'

What a twat!

[Yodean]

https://youtu.be/PcNjrHPkoF4?t=4

*****

Russian Air Force is good at defense, but is no match for MAGA's best.

TopGun beats VodkaPilot.

It is what it is.

[Budge]

https://youtu.be/PcNjrHPkoF4?t=4

*****

Russian Air Force is good at defense, but is no match for MAGA's best.

TopGun beats VodkaPilot.

It is what it is.

Not sure how we morphed into the useless exercise of who can piss up higher on the wall, Russian planes/pilots or US. I'll just throw in a blog post from Andrei Martyanov:

Boy, The Guy Is A Sore Loser.
This is what happens when NASA has to catch rides to ISS on Soyuz ships and Kelly flew "combat missions" against non-existent Iraqi Air Force and Air Defense.

Sen. Mark Kelly flew with Russian pilots as a US Navy combat pilot and as a NASA astronaut. He said the incident last week where a Russian fighter jet dumped fuel on and then clipped the propeller of a US military drone shows how "reckless" and "incompetent" they are. "I'm not surprised by this. I mean, I flew with Russian pilots, fighter pilots who couldn't fly formation. And I watched this video, and it's pretty obvious what happened. He lost sight of it, and he crashed into it," Kelly told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union" Sunday.

This is really sad when the guy with Kelly's C.V. lowers himself to a petty exhibition of own complexes, but this is a reaction of classic sore loser, because Kelly wouldn't be able to fly real combat missions in SU-30SM, SU-35 or SU-57 because he simply doesn't have skills and experience to operate such technology. Now, seeing how Russian Air Force downs dozens upon dozens of Ukie combat planes beyond visual range got to him and his complex of inferiority reared its ugly head.

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/0 ... loser.html