Alternative news sources and Interesting articles to examine

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Yodean
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Re: Is the President of Formosa/Taiwan A fake

Post by Yodean »

Cinnamon wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:34 am I doubt the Chinese will drive the conflict, they are more interested in doing business than starting wars. The US has started the most wars over the past 50 years. Stormed into countries it was not supposed to, lied and killed people to get what it wanted. If the US were a person, the judge would deem it as an extremely violent person and deny bail.
Yeh, true this.

Also, in these types of matters, YoungAnakin almost always eventually turns out to be wrong.

The whole "base rate" thing ...

:lol:
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Re: Is the President of Formosa/Taiwan A fake

Post by Triplethought »

Yodean wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:28 pm
Cinnamon wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:34 am I doubt the Chinese will drive the conflict, they are more interested in doing business than starting wars. The US has started the most wars over the past 50 years. Stormed into countries it was not supposed to, lied and killed people to get what it wanted. If the US were a person, the judge would deem it as an extremely violent person and deny bail.
Yeh, true this.

Also, in these types of matters, YoungAnakin almost always eventually turns out to be wrong.

The whole "base rate" thing ...

:lol:
I doubt we have enough data to state that I'm almost always wrong. I'm just more willing to BE wrong and to admit when I make trading mistakes than other people are. I also call BS on others more readily. But I'm also more willing to listen to objective evidence to reverse my positions.

As for political mistakes....well the fact is you can't generally get people to admit their positions were wrong. I certainly can't admit my religious views are wrong. And I won't admit my health and wellness views are wrong unless you can produce valid scientific evidence to the contrary (which you generally can't given your woo woo belief system).

I'm reminded of my sister recently during the settlement of my Dad's estate insisting on hiring a beneficiary lawyer and not allowing the rest of us to fire the executor, who is 81 yo and incredibly slow (myself and my sister are the backup executor and she didn't trust us) I warned her that keeping the executor and lawyer would stir up trouble, drive up costs and generally draw the whole process out. all of which has come true. Yet every time her lawyer manages to get the 81yo executor to actually do something (after a year of fucking around) she proudly declares her lawyer is doing his job. And every time I think "and your lawyer wouldn't HAVE to do anything if you would have listened to the rest of us in the first place". It's incredible that to this day she proudly thinks her way of doing things is right. Even after we recently received a $60,000 bill from the lawyer and executor for about 8 hours worth of work.

Anyway, the point is people have confirmation bias. they won't admit they've made a mistake even if it's fairly clear. And wars and politics and markets are never very clear. If you guys think Chinese CCP aren't serious cheaters, liars and stealers I don't know how to convince you. They steal intellectual property at a rate never before seen in this world. And if you admire socialism or autocratic governments we will have to agree to disagree.

I'm perfectly willing to admit I'll probably be wrong on our bet that 4th quarter S&P will end the year up. Could still change but you were impressively correct (or a broken clock - not sure which_. However I don't regret moving to cash at (in some cases) a substantial loss. I view that as a MU failure more than a "me" failure. Saying the trend is up all year when it has clearly been down most of the year was a serious mistake... and it should be admitted to rather than saying "oh well the markets generally move up over long periods of time". Such a statement is an abject failure of the fundamental nature of the newsletter's purpose.
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Re: Alternative news sources and Interesting articles to examine

Post by harryg »

Triplethought wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:09 pm
Yodean wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:28 pm
Cinnamon wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:34 am I doubt the Chinese will drive the conflict, they are more interested in doing business than starting wars. The US has started the most wars over the past 50 years. Stormed into countries it was not supposed to, lied and killed people to get what it wanted. If the US were a person, the judge would deem it as an extremely violent person and deny bail.
Yeh, true this.

Also, in these types of matters, YoungAnakin almost always eventually turns out to be wrong.

The whole "base rate" thing ...

:lol:
I doubt we have enough data to state that I'm almost always wrong. I'm just more willing to BE wrong and to admit when I make trading mistakes than other people are. I also call BS on others more readily. But I'm also more willing to listen to objective evidence to reverse my positions.

As for political mistakes....well the fact is you can't generally get people to admit their positions were wrong. I certainly can't admit my religious views are wrong. And I won't admit my health and wellness views are wrong unless you can produce valid scientific evidence to the contrary (which you generally can't given your woo woo belief system).

I'm reminded of my sister recently during the settlement of my Dad's estate insisting on hiring a beneficiary lawyer and not allowing the rest of us to fire the executor, who is 81 yo and incredibly slow (myself and my sister are the backup executor and she didn't trust us) I warned her that keeping the executor and lawyer would stir up trouble, drive up costs and generally draw the whole process out. all of which has come true. Yet every time her lawyer manages to get the 81yo executor to actually do something (after a year of fucking around) she proudly declares her lawyer is doing his job. And every time I think "and your lawyer wouldn't HAVE to do anything if you would have listened to the rest of us in the first place". It's incredible that to this day she proudly thinks her way of doing things is right. Even after we recently received a $60,000 bill from the lawyer and executor for about 8 hours worth of work.

Anyway, the point is people have confirmation bias. they won't admit they've made a mistake even if it's fairly clear. And wars and politics and markets are never very clear. If you guys think Chinese CCP aren't serious cheaters, liars and stealers I don't know how to convince you. They steal intellectual property at a rate never before seen in this world. And if you admire socialism or autocratic governments we will have to agree to disagree.

I'm perfectly willing to admit I'll probably be wrong on our bet that 4th quarter S&P will end the year up. Could still change but you were impressively correct (or a broken clock - not sure which_. However I don't regret moving to cash at (in some cases) a substantial loss. I view that as a MU failure more than a "me" failure. Saying the trend is up all year when it has clearly been down most of the year was a serious mistake... and it should be admitted to rather than saying "oh well the markets generally move up over long periods of time". Such a statement is an abject failure of the fundamental nature of the newsletter's purpose.
Overall, for what it's worth, I agree with your {Triplethought} observations in nearly all cases.

Trading-wise I think you jump the gun a bit, but that's my bias and who's to say that I know better anyway.

To my mind it's a case of theory vs observation.

Me: "Cold outside, snowing. My hands are cold."

Theorists: "Our model shows it shouldn't be cold outside. You are mistaken."

Me: “Eh?”


......................
---------------------------------------
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Re: Alternative news sources and Interesting articles to examine

Post by Triplethought »

harryg wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:19 pm
Triplethought wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:09 pm
Yodean wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:28 pm

Yeh, true this.

Also, in these types of matters, YoungAnakin almost always eventually turns out to be wrong.

The whole "base rate" thing ...

:lol:
I doubt we have enough data to state that I'm almost always wrong. I'm just more willing to BE wrong and to admit when I make trading mistakes than other people are. I also call BS on others more readily. But I'm also more willing to listen to objective evidence to reverse my positions.

As for political mistakes....well the fact is you can't generally get people to admit their positions were wrong. I certainly can't admit my religious views are wrong. And I won't admit my health and wellness views are wrong unless you can produce valid scientific evidence to the contrary (which you generally can't given your woo woo belief system).

I'm reminded of my sister recently during the settlement of my Dad's estate insisting on hiring a beneficiary lawyer and not allowing the rest of us to fire the executor, who is 81 yo and incredibly slow (myself and my sister are the backup executor and she didn't trust us) I warned her that keeping the executor and lawyer would stir up trouble, drive up costs and generally draw the whole process out. all of which has come true. Yet every time her lawyer manages to get the 81yo executor to actually do something (after a year of fucking around) she proudly declares her lawyer is doing his job. And every time I think "and your lawyer wouldn't HAVE to do anything if you would have listened to the rest of us in the first place". It's incredible that to this day she proudly thinks her way of doing things is right. Even after we recently received a $60,000 bill from the lawyer and executor for about 8 hours worth of work.

Anyway, the point is people have confirmation bias. they won't admit they've made a mistake even if it's fairly clear. And wars and politics and markets are never very clear. If you guys think Chinese CCP aren't serious cheaters, liars and stealers I don't know how to convince you. They steal intellectual property at a rate never before seen in this world. And if you admire socialism or autocratic governments we will have to agree to disagree.

I'm perfectly willing to admit I'll probably be wrong on our bet that 4th quarter S&P will end the year up. Could still change but you were impressively correct (or a broken clock - not sure which_. However I don't regret moving to cash at (in some cases) a substantial loss. I view that as a MU failure more than a "me" failure. Saying the trend is up all year when it has clearly been down most of the year was a serious mistake... and it should be admitted to rather than saying "oh well the markets generally move up over long periods of time". Such a statement is an abject failure of the fundamental nature of the newsletter's purpose.
Overall, for what it's worth, I agree with your {Triplethought} observations in nearly all cases.

Trading-wise I think you jump the gun a bit, but that's my bias and who's to say that I know better anyway.

To my mind it's a case of theory vs observation.

Me: "Cold outside, snowing. My hands are cold."

Theorists: "Our model shows it shouldn't be cold outside. You are mistaken."

Me: “Eh?”


......................
Yes I've been good on the buying side but too damn quick on the selling side. However given the volatility it's tough not to take a profit (or minimize a loss). when the opportunity presents itself
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Re: Alternative news sources and Interesting articles to examine

Post by LoriPrecisely »

Cinnamon wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:30 am https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmusVtw2Px4

Besides sounding like a food and behaving in a despicable manner, is she trying to be red riding hood, from the hood? she seems to wear red quite often
She reminds me of Raggedy Ann with the way her hair is styled.
I seriously wonder if she is A.I.
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Re: Alternative news sources and Interesting articles to examine

Post by Centeron631 »

Screenshot 2022-12-14 year if 61% retracement.png
what do u make of this chart?
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Re: Alternative news sources and Interesting articles to examine

Post by chippermon »

Centeron631 wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:06 am Screenshot 2022-12-14 year if 61% retracement.png

what do u make of this chart?
The .618 retracement level is my favorite and most reliable. I consider it the basic retracement level. In a trend, the .618 always holds. When it breaks the trend is over. That could mean sideways or reversal. I'm not saying bail but we are at an important level right now. Other tools are required for an informed decision.
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Re: Alternative news sources and Interesting articles to examine

Post by chippermon »

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Re: Is the President of Formosa/Taiwan A fake

Post by SOL »

Triplethought wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:09 pm
I view that as a MU failure more than a "me" failure. Saying the trend is up all year when it has clearly been down most of the year was a serious mistake... and it should be admitted to rather than saying "oh well the markets generally move up over long periods of time". Such a statement is an abject failure of the fundamental nature of the newsletter's purpose.
It's easy to point the finger at the kettle and call it black when you might be the pot. Using your analogy,
why did you not listen to our call where we clearly stated (and we did so several times) well in advance of the event that the market would experience two corrections and provided specific timelines? The reason is simple: no matter what the trend states or what we say, most will not pay attention unless we continuously bang the table. In other words, individuals focus on what they want; this is not bad or good. It is just an observation. Hence the new format.

Additionally, when it suited your needs, you acted independently and exited many positions well below the suggested targets for low-risk takers.

However, the new format completely removes the need to say, "it's your fault" because the risk factor is clearly stated

One should also remember that It is impossible to gauge the risk status of everyone. What is low risk for me might be extremely high risk for you. Hence another reason for the new format.

Finally, there is a saying that no matter what you do, you can't satisfy everyone, and individuals conveniently adjust their risk status on the fly. If I put ten glasses of water on the table and told you only one contained poison, you were dying of thirst. Would you drink from one of them? Your chance of not being poisoned is 90%. Chances are you would not take the risk. If I told you that one glass had a bacteria that might give you the runs, you would likely be willing to take the risk. Now apply that to the markets.

As for our trend indicator, as I stated before, it's based on very long timelines. Our standing policy is that every disaster is an opportunity waiting to be discovered, and this indicator has helped us spot numerous opportunities for over a decade. However, we did pay attention to what subscribers stated. This is why so many changes were implemented over such a short period.

FYI, the trend indicator might turn neutral. Now the obvious conclusion would be to assume that is a bad thing. Well, it could actually prove to be a highly positive development. I will elucidate on this if and when it happens.
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Re: Is the President of Formosa/Taiwan A fake

Post by SOL »

chippermon wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:02 pm
Cinnamon wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:34 am
I doubt the Chinese will drive the conflict, they are more interested in doing business than starting wars. The US has started the most wars over the past 50 years. Stormed into countries it was not supposed to, lied and killed people to get what it wanted. If the US were a person, the judge would deem it as an extremely violent person and deny bail.
I agree Cinnamon. Chinese are more creatively strategic than brute force. USSA is by far the largest terrorist organization in the world. Looking at their record as you suggest.

Harold Pinter made the following observations
“U.S. foreign policy,” he said, is “best defined as follows: kiss my arse or I’ll kick your head in. It is as simple and as crude as that. What is interesting about it is that it’s so incredibly successful. It possesses the structures of disinformation, use of rhetoric, distortion of language, which are very persuasive, but are actually a pack of lies. It is very successful propaganda. They have the money, they have the technology, they have all the means to get away with it, and they do.”
In accepting the Nobel Prize for Literature, Pinter said this:
“The crimes of the United States have been systematic, constant, vicious, remorseless, but very few people have actually talked about them. You have to hand it to America. It has exercised a quite clinical manipulation of power worldwide while masquerading as a force for universal good. It’s a brilliant, even witty, highly successful act of hypnosis.
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Re: Is the President of Formosa/Taiwan A fake

Post by SOL »

Triplethought wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:09 pm
Anyway, the point is people have confirmation bias. they won't admit they've made a mistake even if it's fairly clear. And wars and politics and markets are never very clear. If you guys think Chinese CCP aren't serious cheaters, liars and stealers I don't know how to convince you. They steal intellectual property at a rate never before seen in this world. And if you admire socialism or autocratic governments we will have to agree to disagree.
Oh really, do you know how much technology the US stole from the Germans when Hitler was defeated? A simple google search could prove to be quite revealing. Furthermore, China was a superpower and highly advanced nation until the British came in and corrupted it. Do you know that they invented the compass and gunpowder

But here is the kicker. The US is the biggest IP stealer. Oh my how could I make such an outrageous and slanderous statement? Let's talk about the US dollar. Because it is the world reserve currency, they can create money out of thin air, which almost no other nation can match and use these funds to steal all the brainpower, talent and tech they need. Just pay for it with money that is created out of thin air.

Have you visited any of the major universities in the last 10 to 15 years? Go to the science classes and you will find very few Americans enrolled. most of them aim for BS degrees, and if push comes to shove, these degrees are useless at producing anything but value. Presently the US maintains its edge via financial shenanigans, consumerism, Wallstreet mafia, etc.

In most universities, any degree that requires math, physics, or any form of hard thinking is dominated by foreigners. Hence the only way to maintain dominance is via wars, theft and using the USD to maintain an edge by paying whatever it takes to get the talented to stay here.


A small sample of why US took so many Nazi scientists back to the US


In the days and weeks after Germany’s surrender, American troops combed the European countryside in search of hidden caches of weaponry to collect. They came across facets of the Nazi war machine that the top brass were shocked to see, writer Annie Jacobsen told NPR’s All Things Considered in 2014. Jacobson wrote about both the mission and the scientists in her book, Operation Paperclip: The Secret Intelligence Program That Brought Nazi Scientists To America.

“One example was they had no idea that Hitler had created this whole arsenal of nerve agents,” Jacobsen says. “They had no idea that Hitler was working on a bubonic plague weapon. That is really where Paperclip began, which was suddenly the Pentagon realizing, ‘Wait a minute, we need these weapons for ourselves.’"

But just studying the weapons wasn't enough, and the U.S. military wasn’t the only country eyeing Nazi scientists—their one-time allies in the Soviet Union were doing the same thing. If the Soviets were going to press their former enemies into service, American military officials didn't want to be left behind. So the U.S. government hatched a plan to bring 88 Nazi scientists captured during the fall of the Nazi Germany back to America and get them back on the job. Only this time, according to History.com, they were working for the U.S. under a project known as “Operation Paperclip.”

While the military did what they could to whitewash the pasts of their “prisoners of peace,” as some of the scientists called themselves, many had serious skeletons in their closets. For example, Wernher von Braun was not just one of the brains behind the V-2 rocket program, but had intimate knowledge of what was going on in the concentration camps. Von Braun himself hand-picked people from horrific places, including Buchenwald concentration camp, to work to the bone building his rockets, Jacobsen tells NPR.


https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-ne ... 180961110/
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Re: Is the President of Formosa/Taiwan A fake

Post by Triplethought »

SOL wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 8:19 am
Triplethought wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:09 pm
Anyway, the point is people have confirmation bias. they won't admit they've made a mistake even if it's fairly clear. And wars and politics and markets are never very clear. If you guys think Chinese CCP aren't serious cheaters, liars and stealers I don't know how to convince you. They steal intellectual property at a rate never before seen in this world. And if you admire socialism or autocratic governments we will have to agree to disagree.
Oh really, do you know how much technology the US stole from the Germans when Hitler was defeated? A simple google search could prove to be quite revealing. Furthermore, China was a superpower and highly advanced nation until the British came in and corrupted it. Do you know that they invented the compass and gunpowder

But here is the kicker. The US is the biggest IP stealer. Oh my how could I make such an outrageous and slanderous statement? Let's talk about the US dollar. Because it is the world reserve currency, they can create money out of thin air, which almost no other nation can match and use these funds to steal all the brainpower, talent and tech they need. Just pay for it with money that is created out of thin air.

Have you visited any of the major universities in the last 10 to 15 years? Go to the science classes and you will find very few Americans enrolled. most of them aim for BS degrees, and if push comes to shove, these degrees are useless at producing anything but value. Presently the US maintains its edge via financial shenanigans, consumerism, Wallstreet mafia, etc.

In most universities, any degree that requires math, physics, or any form of hard thinking is dominated by foreigners. Hence the only way to maintain dominance is via wars, theft and using the USD to maintain an edge by paying whatever it takes to get the talented to stay here
I agree with this (that foreign students dominate our engineering colleges) but disagree with the conclusion. We aren't stealing the talented. We are educating the world (especially Chinese in great numbers) and then stupidly not offering them full citizenship in our country. We are NOT recruiting talented people (except in small numbers). We should be brain draining the SHIT out of the rest of the world by rubber stamping citizenship for any engineer, nurse, doctor, programmer, and any other sought after people. We aren't doing that. Instead we are allowing uneducated fruit pickers and restaurant workers to stream across the border unchecked. These are people we won't need in 10 years due to advances in AI. They are helpful now but a hindrance in the long term. I agree that we are taking advantage of our dollar's reserve status... but it isn't at the level we should be using it.

The Chinese invented gunpowder. Big fuckin deal. The British didn't corrupt their society in terms of technological advance. The Arabs invented numbers and algebra. Big deal. Show me an arab made plane or automobile today. Even with their vast government oil wealth arabs can't manufacture a fucking car. Their best idea is to build the 'city of the future" in the desert. Meh. Turkey? They make rugs for christ sakes. Africa? Africa is a joke from a technology and governance stand point. That continent is in no danger of overtaking anyone for anything. Society is about what have you done for me lately. The fact is those societies didn't keep up in the 18th and 19th and 20th centuries. Not even close. At least China is smart enough to try to steal there way back into the running. But that doesn't forgive the CCP tactics.

I'm not dismissing the evils of colonialism. But we aren't going to change it. And 2 wrongs don't make a right. China is a menace.
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Re: Alternative news sources and Interesting articles to examine

Post by Centeron631 »

an acceptable substitute - "for rice cakes"
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Re: Is the President of Formosa/Taiwan A fake

Post by Budge »

Triplethought wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 4:06 pm China is a menace.
Tx3, I cannot agree. China is only a menace because the West (really the US) has made it so. The arch manipulators must always deflect. They know they have screwed things up to the max and revert to the age-old way to escape. When all else fails take them to war.
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Re: Alternative news sources and Interesting articles to examine

Post by MarkD »

I don't trust the CCP. Chinese people are no different than Americans, with a different value set.

The US gubmint is similar to the CCP in that survival is job one. Whatever they do, keep that in mind.
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