Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

[Yodean]

anyone get the feeling that standard sentiment measures unless they adjusted for, don't work like they used to work before. For example looking at newspaper or magazine covers could generally be used an a contrarian indicator. But one cover says A and the other says B and i think in doing so the contrarian effect is negated.

What I found very useful, is to pay attention to what the people around me are doing? I find it particularly disturbing that unlike when Trump won, or during the Covid crash, or other sharp pullbacks, these people are not particularly bearish or bullish, implying that something has to give.

Imo sentiment measures and technical analysis aren't enough - look what happened last year.

A few of us here have been attempting to improve by combining Herd Psychology, sentiment measures/indicators, technical analysis, and perhaps most importantly, positioning (using COT data in non-traditional ways). Imo the last is the missing piece.

It's been largely successful thus far.

Also like to play the "background rates" with the above - what markets generally do statistically, etc. A lot of my recent posts/charts have been really about betting on background rates (vs. trying to be brilliant and finding some sort of angle that no one else sees, in terms of investing).

Also, another pointed out that you don't always need sentiment survey data - you could use certain individuals who are consistently generally wrong. As you prolly know, the Jesus Buy Signal was birthed this way.

Another example - I recently received a private email from someone whom I consider a very good contrarian sentiment indicator asking me about buying gold bullion.

To me, this tells me that gold is likely topping about here (prolly may test 2075 or thereabouts at best, before going down/flat for a while).

Of course, you don't want to use this type of stuff as your sole reason for taking a position, but useful nonetheless.

[deepthinker]

I disagree Yodean re your sentiment on sentiment. Nothing works perfectly in the markets, if it did, we could leave our investments on auto-pilot. Every now and then what worked forever stops working for a bit and then it starts to work again. Sentiment has been range bound for quite sometime and so I also feel that something has to give, when it will give is another question.

For all the noise the markets have been stuck in a trading range for most of March. I took profits after all of Sol's initial targets were hit, not because I am scared but because I don't want to be a pig. On the Holdings I don't want to sell, I have hedged them. Doing nothing much but following the general trajectory of the Market as per Market updates, my active portfolio is up over 30% and that is good enough for me. I will now sit and wait. For the record, I had to be patient because it took sometime for the markets to rally after finally bottoming out in June or so last year.

Cinnamon i am running into the situation, its almost as of individuals think holding out will make things better, which it usually does but if everyone is holding out that means what used to work might not work. When in doubt sit out as Sol states. I have my doubts so I will sit out.

[MarkD]

https://ibb.co/x3P8qy6

https://ibb.co/gFT067y

[Yodean]

I disagree Yodean re your sentiment on sentiment. Nothing works perfectly in the markets, if it did, we could leave our investments on auto-pilot. Every now and then what worked forever stops working for a bit and then it starts to work again. Sentiment has been range bound for quite sometime and so I also feel that something has to give, when it will give is another question.

For all the noise the markets have been stuck in a trading range for most of March. I took profits after all of Sol's initial targets were hit, not because I am scared but because I don't want to be a pig. On the Holdings I don't want to sell, I have hedged them. Doing nothing much but following the general trajectory of the Market as per Market updates, my active portfolio is up over 30% and that is good enough for me. I will now sit and wait. For the record, I had to be patient because it took sometime for the markets to rally after finally bottoming out in June or so last year.

Cinnamon i am running into the situation, its almost as of individuals think holding out will make things better, which it usually does but if everyone is holding out that means what used to work might not work. When in doubt sit out as Sol states. I have my doubts so I will sit out.

Of course, in the markets, nothing works all the time, and everything works some of the time.

The basic idea is to construct an individualized formula that puts the percentages in your favour, over a period of time.

The casino vs. the player. Most try to be the winning player - e.g. try to find 10x stocks, outsmart the markets, etc. Over a long enough period, most players lose with this approach.

More and more, I try to be the casino - in essence, I don't try to be smarter than anyone else - I'm just focused on betting that the "smart" players/experts/financial advisors, etc. are going to be wrong, over time (not every time) - that's where the profits are.

So it's more of a mindset - I'm not betting that I'm going to be right, so much as I am betting that most will be wrong.

It's a subtle distinction, but I have found the more I adopt this mindset, the more profitable I have become.

The JBS is still in effect.

For me, combining sentiment, COT positioning, and a bit of technical analysis mixed in with "background" rates of POTUS cycles, and how markets generally perform, etc. have been working very well, as opposed to trying to be brilliant and finding 10x stocks, or following those that try to do so.

Finding mainstream pundits as well as others to fade (do the opposite of) has been extremely helpful, as well.

Since the JBS off the October lows, the equity markets have been trending higher - the transition from a bear market to bull market is always difficult to discern, but as always, if it were easy to trade the markets, everyone would be rich, and that is simply not the case.

What I like about Ms. Market is that she is results-based, unforgiving; your PNL/CAGR, over ten or twenty years or preferably even more, tells everything you need to know about your particular approach.

All the arguments and discussions, etc., about why a particular approach is better or not- although interesting at times and providing junk food for thought - are irrelevant to long-term CAGR.

Most retail investors won't make it to ten or twenty years - that's how hard being profitable over long time frames is.

Long-term CAGR is my gold standard for anybody's investing approach. I'll be approaching 20 years soon, so will be conducting another forensic audit.

Pretty sure I'm ahead of most retail's 20-year CAGRs, despite last year's complete fiasco ...

Druckenmiller is a lot of experienced traders' GOAT - part of the reason is that he is quite famous for saying something along the lines of: "well, I found that I am often wrong when making predictions, so I had to find a way to be profitable even when I'm wrong on market direction." Evidently, he's found a consistent way to do that.

That's kind of what I try to do these days - be the casino, bet that the Herd is wrong over time, and risk manage enough that I'm profitable even when I'm wrong on market direction.

Lots of money on sidelines, and retail investors are very nervous.

Also, financial advisors usually wrong:

[scott]

I put this in the AI forum, but not as much activity there. I think I got an email, putting a hold on the sell instructions for some postions when the NDX hits a certain range. Now, I can't find that email. Was I dreaming?

[xkosmox]

I put this in the AI forum, but not as much activity there. I think I got an email, putting a hold on the sell instructions for some postions when the NDX hits a certain range. Now, I can't find that email. Was I dreaming?

I got this email

[bpcw]

I put this in the AI forum, but not as much activity there. I think I got an email, putting a hold on the sell instructions for some postions when the NDX hits a certain range. Now, I can't find that email. Was I dreaming?

The email said they were considering raising the level based on Friday's close but not heard anything since.

[SOL]

I put this in the AI forum, but not as much activity there. I think I got an email, putting a hold on the sell instructions for some postions when the NDX hits a certain range. Now, I can't find that email. Was I dreaming?

I posted a response to your query and posted an interim update. Another update will be sent shortly. I will be more active there now that the AI trend has reached escape velocity.

[MarkD]

I believe Yodean is correct in his assessment the market bottom was in October 22, or January 23 when my indicators exhibited double or rising bottoms.

I also expect it to be choppy as inflation hangs around for several weeks to months until the big supply of money returns to the market. It's a good time to swing trade between support and resistance.

Liquidity is slowing returning via Fed actions which will provide the floor. My guess is in twelve months it will be a surging bull into the fall US elections.

[Yodean]

[scremonini]

Has the outlook on the USD changed?

Latest unemployment data, put the FED back against the wall..

[SOL]

Has the outlook on the USD changed?

Latest unemployment data, put the FED back against the wall..

The US dollar is presently consolidating on a weekly basis, and there is still a good chance for it to test its recent highs. Even though the primary move has ended, this current tail-end move has a high likelihood of profitability, having been successful 90% of the time. It's important to note that our primary long term objectives have already been fulfilled, including testing the 114 ranges and achieving parity with the euro

[Budge]

Bullish sentiment pretty low, banks in crisis, and have we seen a bloodbath, nope!

Think we can expect a decent bounce from here soon!

I wish we'd see a literal and metaphorical bloodbath for some of the banks and the wankers that run them. Brought to you from the Fear and Loathing section, I present chief turd Jamie Dimon.

under Dimon’s tenure as Chairman and CEO, JPMorgan Chase has been on an unprecedented crime spree, including being charged with five felony counts by the U.S. Department of Justice, and his bank is annually ranked by U.S. banking regulators as well as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision as the riskiest bank on the planet.

(Pam Marten, Wall Street on Parade)

Now he continues with "I'm alright Jack" (great 1959 movie) and "I'm now in full WEF mode and fuck the rest of you":

In his annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon suggested that the U.S. government and climate conscious corporations may have to seize citizen’s private property to enact climate initiatives while there still time to stave off climate disasters.

Dimon declared Tuesday that "governments, businesses and non-governmental organizations" may need to invoke "eminent domain" in order to get the "adequate investments fast enough for grid, solar, wind and pipeline initiatives."

https://www.foxnews.com/media/jp-morgan ... nitiatives

[Budge]

Bullish sentiment pretty low, banks in crisis, and have we seen a bloodbath, nope!

Think we can expect a decent bounce from here soon!

I wish we'd see a literal and metaphorical bloodbath for some of the banks and the wankers that run them. Brought to you from the Fear and Loathing section, I present chief turd Jamie Dimon.

under Dimon’s tenure as Chairman and CEO, JPMorgan Chase has been on an unprecedented crime spree, including being charged with five felony counts by the U.S. Department of Justice, and his bank is annually ranked by U.S. banking regulators as well as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision as the riskiest bank on the planet.

(Pam Marten, Wall Street on Parade)

Now he continues with "I'm alright Jack" (great 1959 movie) and "I'm now in full WEF mode and fuck the rest of you":

In his annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon suggested that the U.S. government and climate conscious corporations may have to seize citizen’s private property to enact climate initiatives while there still time to stave off climate disasters.

Dimon declared Tuesday that "governments, businesses and non-governmental organizations" may need to invoke "eminent domain" in order to get the "adequate investments fast enough for grid, solar, wind and pipeline initiatives."

https://www.foxnews.com/media/jp-morgan ... nitiatives

More on Jamie Dimon and First Republic Bank:

Jamie Dimon was the worst possible choice to head up a rescue of First Republic Bank as he is the personification of what happens when a trading casino is allowed to own the largest federally-insured bank in America. Under Dimon’s tenure at the helm of JPMorgan Chase, it has been charged with losing $6.2 billion of depositors’ money by gambling in derivatives in London; its precious metals traders have been charged under RICO – the statute used to prosecute the mob; it has received an unprecedented five felony counts from the U.S. Department of Justice, including aiding and abetting the largest Ponzi scheme in history by Bernie Madoff, and on and on.

But Jamie Dimon has a legion of public relations flacks shaping his image as a titan of Wall Street wisdom and he has clearly gotten high on his own p.r. supply. So Dimon cajoled three other mega banks on Wall Street to join his bank and dump $5 billion each of uninsured deposits into First Republic Bank on March 16. Those banks were Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. In addition, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs deposited $2.5 billion each; while BNY Mellon, State Street, PNC Bank, Truist and US Bank each deposited $1 billion, bringing the total infusion to $30 billion.

In addition, according to First Republic, JPMorgan Chase had also provided a line of credit to the bank. Multiple media outlets also reported that JPMorgan Chase and Lazard were advisors to First Republic Bank on its options going forward. (See here and here.)

Yesterday, the share price of First Republic plunged another 49 percent, closing at an all-time low of $8.10. In response, CNBC is reporting that there is now a plan afoot to attempt to cajole the 11 banks that sluiced the $30 billion in temporary deposits to First Republic to convert that into an equity stake. Seriously? What the devil is going on here and why aren’t the shareholders of these banks wielding pitchforks?

S&P Global has already downgraded First Republic Bank into junk territory; excluding the $30 billion in strong-armed deposits from the mega banks, First Republic lost a staggering 58 percent of its deposits in the first quarter of this year; and its wealth advisors are leaving and taking billions of dollars in clients assets with them to new firms.

Since when did it become a rational move for one federally-insured bank to link its brand and reputation to an imploding bank?

Dimon needs to be hauled before the Senate Banking Committee in a public hearing, put under oath, and grilled as to what exactly his motivation was to get so enmeshed in the hot mess at First Republic Bank. Likewise, the perpetually blind-folded and conflicted Board at JPMorgan Chase needs to hire an independent, credible law firm to investigate the conflicts inherent in the many hats Jamie Dimon was wearing in this debacle.

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/04/ ... stigation/

[SOL]

Bullish sentiment pretty low, banks in crisis, and have we seen a bloodbath, nope!

Think we can expect a decent bounce from here soon!

I wish we'd see a literal and metaphorical bloodbath for some of the banks and the wankers that run them. Brought to you from the Fear and Loathing section, I present chief turd Jamie Dimon.

under Dimon’s tenure as Chairman and CEO, JPMorgan Chase has been on an unprecedented crime spree, including being charged with five felony counts by the U.S. Department of Justice, and his bank is annually ranked by U.S. banking regulators as well as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision as the riskiest bank on the planet.

(Pam Marten, Wall Street on Parade)

Now he continues with "I'm alright Jack" (great 1959 movie) and "I'm now in full WEF mode and fuck the rest of you":

In his annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon suggested that the U.S. government and climate conscious corporations may have to seize citizen’s private property to enact climate initiatives while there still time to stave off climate disasters.

Dimon declared Tuesday that "governments, businesses and non-governmental organizations" may need to invoke "eminent domain" in order to get the "adequate investments fast enough for grid, solar, wind and pipeline initiatives."

https://www.foxnews.com/media/jp-morgan ... nitiatives

More on Jamie Dimon and First Republic Bank:

Jamie Dimon was the worst possible choice to head up a rescue of First Republic Bank as he is the personification of what happens when a trading casino is allowed to own the largest federally-insured bank in America. Under Dimon’s tenure at the helm of JPMorgan Chase, it has been charged with losing $6.2 billion of depositors’ money by gambling in derivatives in London; its precious metals traders have been charged under RICO – the statute used to prosecute the mob; it has received an unprecedented five felony counts from the U.S. Department of Justice, including aiding and abetting the largest Ponzi scheme in history by Bernie Madoff, and on and on.

But Jamie Dimon has a legion of public relations flacks shaping his image as a titan of Wall Street wisdom and he has clearly gotten high on his own p.r. supply. So Dimon cajoled three other mega banks on Wall Street to join his bank and dump $5 billion each of uninsured deposits into First Republic Bank on March 16. Those banks were Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. In addition, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs deposited $2.5 billion each; while BNY Mellon, State Street, PNC Bank, Truist and US Bank each deposited $1 billion, bringing the total infusion to $30 billion.

In addition, according to First Republic, JPMorgan Chase had also provided a line of credit to the bank. Multiple media outlets also reported that JPMorgan Chase and Lazard were advisors to First Republic Bank on its options going forward. (See here and here.)

Yesterday, the share price of First Republic plunged another 49 percent, closing at an all-time low of $8.10. In response, CNBC is reporting that there is now a plan afoot to attempt to cajole the 11 banks that sluiced the $30 billion in temporary deposits to First Republic to convert that into an equity stake. Seriously? What the devil is going on here and why aren’t the shareholders of these banks wielding pitchforks?

S&P Global has already downgraded First Republic Bank into junk territory; excluding the $30 billion in strong-armed deposits from the mega banks, First Republic lost a staggering 58 percent of its deposits in the first quarter of this year; and its wealth advisors are leaving and taking billions of dollars in clients assets with them to new firms.

Since when did it become a rational move for one federally-insured bank to link its brand and reputation to an imploding bank?

Dimon needs to be hauled before the Senate Banking Committee in a public hearing, put under oath, and grilled as to what exactly his motivation was to get so enmeshed in the hot mess at First Republic Bank. Likewise, the perpetually blind-folded and conflicted Board at JPMorgan Chase needs to hire an independent, credible law firm to investigate the conflicts inherent in the many hats Jamie Dimon was wearing in this debacle.

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/04/ ... stigation/

Unfortunately, nothing happens to banksters, also known as gangsters, because there aren't enough people pushing for change. The few of us who desire change are too small in number to make any significant impact. It all comes down to the old saying, "the mediocre control the bright," and so far, there is no remedy in sight to deal with this plight