Tell us a little bit about yourself and or your trading experience

[sarginger]

Hello to all.
Late 40s engineer in Ohio/USA. I probably bought my first stocks around 18 years ago. I’ve always been a live below your means type of guy so saving/investing in has always come naturally. When I first started my Schwab account I had decent success and lots of free time and discipline to stay on top of investments. As time progressed I became more hands off and paid the price by missing exit timings (something I am still poor at). So stocks became replaced with ETFs and index funds with an occasional “blue chip” in the mix. Returns greatly outpaced my very limited 401K and I was content.
A few years ago I finally felt enough comfort to gamble a little more and started a managed account for a 1% yearly fee. I figured let’s see what a “professional” can do. Well after a few years my own account outperformed the managed account by a significant amount. It gave me more confidence in myself, but I know I lack discipline and tend to miss entrance points and exit points. In the long run I do okay (= better than an S&P index) but I know I am likely missing 5-10% returns every time.
COVID led me down the path of test driving financial newsletters and following people on Twitter, etc as I knew this was a unique opportunity and had no experience. What I learned is that like most data, it is selectively presented to show tell the story you want to tell. Analysts were always right, because they would state different things at different times and then selectively chose the best comment later to prove their supremacy. I remember in late March being told by analysts to stay away from the markets due to COVID but it just didn’t make sense. While their data suggested one thing, the markets did something different (luckily I didn’t trust them). Through this I lost more confidence in the data and more confidence in human nature.
With the US election growing nearer I researched new newsletters and somehow happened upon TI. The general approach just makes sense to me, so I am on the one month trial and hoping to be convinced to pull the trigger on a full year soon enough. I’ve come at a strange time (not so many good entry points), but I hope to improve in my two greatest areas of weakness, timing my entry and exit. I’m not looking to make outlandish returns. An average of 15%-20% would be pretty nice though. Not so difficult in recent years, but I feel like the future may prove to be a bit more difficult. Hopefully I can gain enough confidence in options to try a few in the near future.

Anyway, glad to find something unique and relatable in a sea of financial newsletters/subscriptions.

[MarkD]

I cannot promise outsized returns, that will depend upon your discipline and what strategies you choose from within the TI realm of products. Initially, my intended use of TI was for market sentiment as I was invested mostly in ETFs/funds.

My success with individual stocks was mixed and not a refined strategy. But I began to believe that passive index funds were going to be a failure at some point as more and more money piles into these types of vehicles. The real reason is not passive investments, it's the fact that 40% of the S&P 500 only exists due to low interest rates and stock buybacks. This group does not make any money!

That too shall pass when the eventual crash and termination of bailouts occurs, being replaced by healthier companies.

Have been with Sol for several years and now, in retirement, have slowly embraced the methodology more fully buying options and stocks. Hang on, it works.

[AstuteShift]

Hello to all.
Late 40s engineer in Ohio/USA. I probably bought my first stocks around 18 years ago. I’ve always been a live below your means type of guy so saving/investing in has always come naturally. When I first started my Schwab account I had decent success and lots of free time and discipline to stay on top of investments. As time progressed I became more hands off and paid the price by missing exit timings (something I am still poor at). So stocks became replaced with ETFs and index funds with an occasional “blue chip” in the mix. Returns greatly outpaced my very limited 401K and I was content.
A few years ago I finally felt enough comfort to gamble a little more and started a managed account for a 1% yearly fee. I figured let’s see what a “professional” can do. Well after a few years my own account outperformed the managed account by a significant amount. It gave me more confidence in myself, but I know I lack discipline and tend to miss entrance points and exit points. In the long run I do okay (= better than an S&P index) but I know I am likely missing 5-10% returns every time.
COVID led me down the path of test driving financial newsletters and following people on Twitter, etc as I knew this was a unique opportunity and had no experience. What I learned is that like most data, it is selectively presented to show tell the story you want to tell. Analysts were always right, because they would state different things at different times and then selectively chose the best comment later to prove their supremacy. I remember in late March being told by analysts to stay away from the markets due to COVID but it just didn’t make sense. While their data suggested one thing, the markets did something different (luckily I didn’t trust them). Through this I lost more confidence in the data and more confidence in human nature.
With the US election growing nearer I researched new newsletters and somehow happened upon TI. The general approach just makes sense to me, so I am on the one month trial and hoping to be convinced to pull the trigger on a full year soon enough. I’ve come at a strange time (not so many good entry points), but I hope to improve in my two greatest areas of weakness, timing my entry and exit. I’m not looking to make outlandish returns. An average of 15%-20% would be pretty nice though. Not so difficult in recent years, but I feel like the future may prove to be a bit more difficult. Hopefully I can gain enough confidence in options to try a few in the near future.

Anyway, glad to find something unique and relatable in a sea of financial newsletters/subscriptions.

My percent return on capital with TI has been in the realm of 250 percent, however Most of the gains from March lows

Also, I’m very experienced with options, it’s like eating food however that’s not for everyone. Options give incredible returns but also you lose money just as quickly

Stock trading is more than enough to make great returns

I do not recommend futures, too much leverage and even more riskier than options. Also the stress factor increases which is not good
The biggest factors to speed up returns and reach triple digits is to eliminate fear, acquire patience and be very disciplined. Those three are critical

[sarginger]

Thanks for the responses and optimism. I know I lack discipline, so I hope to improve that here. 2020 has been strange. Probably the easiest year to find high returns since I started investing. I’m sure I could have done better, but just picking “obvious” stocks returned far greater than I would have guessed in March/April. I’m think those days are slowing now, so it’s time to improve my skill set.

Looking forward to the next newsletter!

[Jaz]

Hello. Name is Jaz. Mid 30's from the UK.

Found this group via the comments section of another well respected Investor's service (I recognize two members from that group here ... You know who you are!).

Generally have been an accumulate and hold type investor of Megacap Tech stocks and ETF's (QQQ), as this is what has worked well for me, and a sector which I understand, as I am from an Electronics/Software background.

Gameplan is to not have to work again (as an Employee) in the next 5 years, which is achievable if the Nasdaq can sustain it's CAGR for the next 5 years!

Here to learn what I can from others, and discuss investment ideas, and help others where I can.

[Yodean]

Hello. Name is Jaz. Mid 30's from the UK.

Found this group via the comments section of another well respected Investor's service (I recognize two members from that group here ... You know who you are!).

Generally have been an accumulate and hold type investor of Megacap Tech stocks and ETF's (QQQ), as this is what has worked well for me, and a sector which I understand, as I am from an Electronics/Software background.

Gameplan is to not have to work again (as an Employee) in the next 5 years, which is achievable if the Nasdaq can sustain it's CAGR for the next 5 years!

Here to learn what I can from others, and discuss investment ideas, and help others where I can.

Welcome Jaz! You'll love this forum.

[gnosis12]

Hello. Name is Jaz. Mid 30's from the UK.

Found this group via the comments section of another well respected Investor's service (I recognize two members from that group here ... You know who you are!).

Generally have been an accumulate and hold type investor of Megacap Tech stocks and ETF's (QQQ), as this is what has worked well for me, and a sector which I understand, as I am from an Electronics/Software background.

Gameplan is to not have to work again (as an Employee) in the next 5 years, which is achievable if the Nasdaq can sustain it's CAGR for the next 5 years!

Here to learn what I can from others, and discuss investment ideas, and help others where I can.

I concur you will love this forum, for it's one of the few places where individuals with opposing views can state what their views without fear of retribution. The principle of agree to disagree seems to be at play here, which is saying a lot. It seems Sol and his team attract minds that think alike.

[langdj]

Hello. Name is Jaz. Mid 30's from the UK.

Found this group via the comments section of another well respected Investor's service (I recognize two members from that group here ... You know who you are!).

Generally have been an accumulate and hold type investor of Megacap Tech stocks and ETF's (QQQ), as this is what has worked well for me, and a sector which I understand, as I am from an Electronics/Software background.

Gameplan is to not have to work again (as an Employee) in the next 5 years, which is achievable if the Nasdaq can sustain it's CAGR for the next 5 years!

Here to learn what I can from others, and discuss investment ideas, and help others where I can.

@Jaz, I do recognize the name, welcome! I have been super happy with my experience here. Hope you enjoy it as well

[Pipedream]

AGQ traded down to $36.35 on 11/30/20. I had a buy order filled @ 36.62 - up 11% this AM.

[AstuteShift]

AGQ traded down to $36.35 on 11/30/20. I had a buy order filled @ 36.62 - up 11% this AM.

Great catch and timing

[Triplethought]

AGQ traded down to $36.35 on 11/30/20. I had a buy order filled @ 36.62 - up 11% this AM.

Not sure why this thread drifted to silver but I have 2 questions:
1)What is the difference between SLV and AGZ?

2) If Sol and others (in another thread) believe UUP is a reasonable investment today given it's hitting new lows (basically a bet that US dollar will go up against 5 other currencies) isn't it a contrary bet to believe silver will go up too?

[Triplethought]

With the US election growing nearer I researched new newsletters and somehow happened upon TI. The general approach just makes sense to me, so I am on the one month trial and hoping to be convinced to pull the trigger on a full year soon enough. I’ve come at a strange time (not so many good entry points), but I hope to improve in my two greatest areas of weakness, timing my entry and exit. I’m not looking to make outlandish returns. An average of 15%-20% would be pretty nice though. Not so difficult in recent years, but I feel like the future may prove to be a bit more difficult. Hopefully I can gain enough confidence in options to try a few in the near future.

Anyway, glad to find something unique and relatable in a sea of financial newsletters/subscriptions.

I'm a late 50's electrical engineer who started around July. So I missed the dip in March but my returns have still been outstanding. I would say RUN don't walk to buy a full year subscription to both this and the AI newsletter assuming you have funds to distribute to both. Depending on how I calculate it my annualized returns are as high as 140% (if I calculate only the portion of my IRA I actually invested and not the cash sitting on the sidelines). I'm still a skeptic in all things and am proceeding carefully. But I can tolerate more risk than some (entrepreneur). I've done some investing in some of the riskier plays (including a few of the options) and that's where I've done well. The ETF portfolio has been not as profitable for me because I only ever got into two of the positions (which both did well)

I find the second greatest value of the newsletter and this forum is to calm my nerves because left on my own the minute I saw even a slight profit I'd emotionally sell, sell, sell.

[Yodean]

2) If Sol and others (in another thread) believe UUP is a reasonable investment today given it's hitting new lows (basically a bet that US dollar will go up against 5 other currencies) isn't it a contrary bet to believe silver will go up too?

For me, I never assume anybody's predictions will ever be 100% accurate. At best, 70 - 90%, usually less. So speaking for myself, I invest according to how certain I am of a particular outcome.

For example, I think there's probably a >60% probability that the USD will mount a significant rally within the next 3 - 9 months or so. So I'm building large positions in USD, UUP, and TLT. However, I also believe there's a >70% probability silver will break $30 within 12 months, so I've got my 5 - 15% "minerals" allocation (I include gold, silver, platinum, nickel, copper, and uranium in this category). The problem, of course, is that silver may revisit the high teens before breaking $30, so there's that.

Neither outcome may come true, both may occur, or either one might. So I size my positions based on how likely each outcome is.

One may argue that one is pressing the brake pedal and the gas pedal at the same time.

To me, the essence of asset allocation is playing a bit of defense . . . yes, everyone wants to play offense, as offense gets the glory (i.e. overbetting on a single asset to garner huge gains), but as the hackneyed expression goes, "Defense wins championships."

Proper asset allocation protects you a bit when one is wrong about a particular investment/trading thesis. For those who play poker, I see asset allocation as "pot control."

[symbios]

AGQ traded down to $36.35 on 11/30/20. I had a buy order filled @ 36.62 - up 11% this AM.

Not sure why this thread drifted to silver but I have 2 questions:
1)What is the difference between SLV and AGZ?

2) If Sol and others (in another thread) believe UUP is a reasonable investment today given it's hitting new lows (basically a bet that US dollar will go up against 5 other currencies) isn't it a contrary bet to believe silver will go up too?

1. AGQ is 2x silver. Meaning if silver prices move up $1, AGQ should theoretically move up $2. Note the theoretical portion. It don’t always trade to the exact of 2x but more or less so. The reason why anyone would trade AGQ instead of SLV is due to the 2x nature. It would often be short term positions where you predict an explosive move towards a certain direction.

p.s you wrote AGZ which is referring to agency bond but I just assume you mean AGQ..

[Triplethought]

Proper asset allocation protects you a bit when one is wrong about a particular investment/trading thesis. For those who play poker, I see asset allocation as "pot control."

Thanks for a great response.