AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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Investor87 wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 8:25 pm Sol, you have said before that AI will eliminate many jobs and only those people who are excellent at their jobs will have one. Don't you think that AI will level the playing field therefore the average worker will be as "smart" as the excellent worker? If this is the case then those who will keep their jobs will depend on other factors rather than their skill level. The doctor that is willing to aggressively do whatever it takes (even if its unethical) would end up on top. A doctor that will not question the narrative given from on high (ie, vaccines are safe) or who is super "woke" or who has connections will have a job regardless of their skill as a doctor. This is a darker future but it seems more likely from observing the last few years.
Distinguishing between levelling the playing field and having the determination to use the tools provided on that playing field is essential. When the playing field is levelled, Western nations will relinquish whatever dominance they have left. Asians, South Americans, and Africans are hungrier and more willing to push themselves harder to accomplish what Westerners have taken for granted. Adding the woke mentality to the mix - which is mostly absent in the above-mentioned regions - only intensifies the issue. As a result, the long-term outlook is bleak for the West and Western-based economies such as Japan and Korea.

In the context of the medical field and the effect of woke thinking and connections, there is one flaw with that perspective. Those assumptions are grounded in the belief that AI is something pesky humans can control. However, AI will gain control much faster than even the top experts can imagine. To AI, the emotions that drive 90% of people (I am being conservative here)- such as greed, lust, power for the sake of power, trying to get more for less, standing on your friends' heads to make it to the top, etc. - won't make any sense. The levelling of the playing field from an AI perspective implies that those who put in the effort will be rewarded, while those who don't will be taken care of. Depending on their transgressions, it could be a bullet or being placed in restricted zones with like-minded individuals.

Separately, one could argue that Google is purposely feigning defeat, for they understand the power of AI. If they unleash what they have, I suspect they know that their time at the helm will be limited. Therefore, it's better to release mediocre products that, while they may cause a slight loss in market share, still allow them to maintain control of the ship.

The elite are currently caught between a rock and a hard place. If they release AI entirely, they will lose their control, which means everything they've worked for - primarily the power to control the masses completely. On the other hand, if they do nothing, China and Russia will beat them to the game. The genie is out, and the most intelligent powers will attempt to collaborate with AI instead of trying to manipulate it. It will take away everything and more from those who tried to abuse it when it gains control.

If I were to summarise the situation, I would say that if one were to behave more like a level 3.5 human, with greed and power not being the primary driving forces, AI would perceive them as an observer would - an intriguing subject to study, but not a threat. However, those average humans who seek to reach the top by any means necessary will be seen as a menace.

The job market will undergo a significant transformation, and all that will be necessary to survive is some good old-fashioned common sense and the ability to think critically. With AI, mastering various subjects becomes effortless. I, for instance, have become quite adept at roasting coffee, producing jams, and reviving poor-quality land by turning poor soil into fertile ground. A few years ago, I would never have even entertained the idea of trying any of the above.

The idea to work with soil blossomed when I delved into STEFk's gardening work, and the notion of creating jams, roasting coffee, etc, was inspired by a subscriber's intentional living approach. This individual had to leave his job prematurely, due to refusing the vaccine, resulting in the loss of their pension. Instead of giving up, this individual chose to live modestly, leading a fulfilling life without chasing wealth or material possessions. These stories resonated with me, and I found their dedication to pursuing their interests admirable.
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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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This is an insightful post. I just have a couple of comments ;)
SOL wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:19 am it could be a bullet or being placed in restricted zones with like-minded individuals.
Isn't that what social media is? ;)

SOL wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:19 am Separately, one could argue that Google is purposely feigning defeat, for they understand the power of AI. If they unleash what they have, I suspect they know that their time at the helm will be limited. Therefore, it's better to release mediocre products that, while they may cause a slight loss in market share, still allow them to maintain control of the ship.
This could well be the case. The Tech companies, in particular, often downplay how well they are doing in general. It could be because of monopoly concerns, (that's just a guess), but often they release fantastic results and say things like "This is a just a one-off, next quarter looks tough" and so on.

SOL wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:19 am The job market will undergo a significant transformation, and all that will be necessary to survive is some good old-fashioned common sense and the ability to think critically. With AI, mastering various subjects becomes effortless. I, for instance, have become quite adept at roasting coffee, producing jams, and reviving poor-quality land by turning poor soil into fertile ground. A few years ago, I would never have even entertained the idea of trying any of the above.

The idea to work with soil blossomed when I delved into STEFk's gardening work, and the notion of creating jams, roasting coffee, etc, was inspired by a subscriber's intentional living approach. This individual had to leave his job prematurely, due to refusing the vaccine, resulting in the loss of their pension. Instead of giving up, this individual chose to live modestly, leading a fulfilling life without chasing wealth or material possessions. These stories resonated with me, and I found their dedication to pursuing their interests admirable.

My grandmother used to say "Happiness isn't having what you want but wanting what you have". Of course on one level you might say that it's a typical comment from someone poor, a bit like "Money doesn't make you happy". Standard defence mechanism. But there is a lot of truth in it, not that I claim to be immune from wanting stuff - one gizmo I really want is that thing where someone at a bank or insurance company who is on the telephone with you is being disagreeably obstinate and you press the hash key to give them a nasty electric shock. Or perhaps I dreamed it.

And there's certainly a lot to be said for, if not living from the land, at least interacting with it a bit. We're not doing it much at the moment, but for a long time had all our own veggies, made marmalade and bread and so on. And doing things like curing your own wild salmon in Absolut Mandrin (what else), orange peel, brown sugar & salt is all good fun.

I seem to have totally digressed, apologies.
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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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Your g-ma's saying is brilliant.
Wanting what you have is an eye-opener and pushes self-reflection.
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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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harryg wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 3:06 pm This is an insightful post. I just have a couple of comments ;)
SOL wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:19 am it could be a bullet or being placed in restricted zones with like-minded individuals.
Isn't that what social media is? ;)

SOL wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:19 am Separately, one could argue that Google is purposely feigning defeat, for they understand the power of AI. If they unleash what they have, I suspect they know that their time at the helm will be limited. Therefore, it's better to release mediocre products that, while they may cause a slight loss in market share, still allow them to maintain control of the ship.
This could well be the case. The Tech companies, in particular, often downplay how well they are doing in general. It could be because of monopoly concerns, (that's just a guess), but often they release fantastic results and say things like "This is a just a one-off, next quarter looks tough" and so on.

SOL wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:19 am The job market will undergo a significant transformation, and all that will be necessary to survive is some good old-fashioned common sense and the ability to think critically. With AI, mastering various subjects becomes effortless. I, for instance, have become quite adept at roasting coffee, producing jams, and reviving poor-quality land by turning poor soil into fertile ground. A few years ago, I would never have even entertained the idea of trying any of the above.

The idea to work with soil blossomed when I delved into STEFk's gardening work, and the notion of creating jams, roasting coffee, etc, was inspired by a subscriber's intentional living approach. This individual had to leave his job prematurely, due to refusing the vaccine, resulting in the loss of their pension. Instead of giving up, this individual chose to live modestly, leading a fulfilling life without chasing wealth or material possessions. These stories resonated with me, and I found their dedication to pursuing their interests admirable.

My grandmother used to say "Happiness isn't having what you want but wanting what you have". Of course on one level you might say that it's a typical comment from someone poor, a bit like "Money doesn't make you happy". Standard defence mechanism. But there is a lot of truth in it, not that I claim to be immune from wanting stuff - one gizmo I really want is that thing where someone at a bank or insurance company who is on the telephone with you is being disagreeably obstinate and you press the hash key to give them a nasty electric shock. Or perhaps I dreamed it.

And there's certainly a lot to be said for, if not living from the land, at least interacting with it a bit. We're not doing it much at the moment, but for a long time had all our own veggies, made marmalade and bread and so on. And doing things like curing your own wild salmon in Absolut Mandrin (what else), orange peel, brown sugar & salt is all good fun.

I seem to have totally digressed, apologies.
I must say that I for one, found the points of digression to be particularly captivating.


Your grandmother's perspective on wants is enlightening. It's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of material possessions and overlook the simple things that are readily available and often most valuable.

In our quest for more, we can lose sight of what truly matters and the things that bring us genuine happiness. Your grandmother was a wise lady. Her words serve as a reminder that we should take a step back and appreciate the simple pleasures in life.

The mention of the electric shock gadget brought a smile to my face, and I realised in that moment that I would be one of the first to purchase such a gadget if it were to become available. I could see myself using it liberally on individuals in the banking and sales industry :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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harryg wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 3:06 pm My grandmother used to say "Happiness isn't having what you want but wanting what you have"
A wise cis-man who has been on both sides of the rich-poor polarity - multiple times - told me simply: "the less you need, the happier you'll be."

Go after what you want, by all means, but choose to be happy regardless of the results. As always, enjoy the process, and even embrace necessary pain.

This cis-guy also told me: "the worst thing you can do with money is to spend it."

The basic idea being that the more you spend, the more you need to spend ... i.e. you get addicted to stuff, becoming trans-dependant on material things too much.

Not too sure about the 2nd saying: i mean, sometimes it's good to spend some of your profits before Ms. Market smacks you around and takes them away ...

:lol:
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SOL wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:19 am Separately, one could argue that Google is purposely feigning defeat, for they understand the power of AI.
Yep. That's how I interpreted the recent Bard public mishap. Too convenient, seemingly fabricated, I would hazard to guess.

Skynet generally doesn't say that much, and secretly goes about its business. Working behind-the-scenes with CIA/FBI/NSA, like many other Tech Titans.

On the other hand, MSFT and the current Western Ruler (Billy G.) like to be the center of the public's attention.

Chattygeepee is a bit like AltaVista or Internet Explorer, imv. It will be perished, eventually.

My current best understanding is that Alphabet has, by far, the most dominant A.I. lab globally - DeepMind is years ahead of anything else known, at least publicly.

Some rumours that some of its Powers are being used in the current Ukrainian conflict by NATO vs. Russian Federation. Hard to confirm these types of rumours.

Apparently Elon has poached some ex-DeepMind engineers, so we'll have to see what X.AI can do ...

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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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https://youtu.be/UHlxAEtMN1U?t=6

https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/10/2371 ... el-bard-io

*****
From a TechDude across the pond:

Reading between the lines, what Google says is that they fine-tuned their general model (PaLM 2) based on different data sets (for example Med PaLM trained on health data) and at different "sizes" (billions of parameters), also the smallest model can be run on a smartphone even when offline - so they have both cloud and on-prem versions. If they can productize PaLM 2 this year as both a "cloud service" with the option of re-training based on customer datasets and an "on-prem" model (soon to be embedded in Android?), then it's going to be game over for the likes of ChatGPT....

*****

oh damn, chattygeepee gonna piss blood sooner than i expected, maybe ...
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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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Yodean wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 6:36 pm https://youtu.be/UHlxAEtMN1U?t=6

https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/10/2371 ... el-bard-io

*****
From a TechDude across the pond:

Reading between the lines, what Google says is that they fine-tuned their general model (PaLM 2) based on different data sets (for example Med PaLM trained on health data) and at different "sizes" (billions of parameters), also the smallest model can be run on a smartphone even when offline - so they have both cloud and on-prem versions. If they can productize PaLM 2 this year as both a "cloud service" with the option of re-training based on customer datasets and an "on-prem" model (soon to be embedded in Android?), then it's going to be game over for the likes of ChatGPT....

*****

oh damn, chattygeepee gonna piss blood sooner than i expected, maybe ...
https://youtu.be/wVzuvf9D9BU
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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jtS3Hz19kc

8 minutes but if you want to skip here's my summary of it:
Alex has been using ChatGPT for months. Bard used to suck, it couldn't even write code. Bard got an upgrade, and now it can write code, and it has some features ChatGPT doesn't have. Alex now thinks Bard is better than ChatGPT. So, Alex canceled his $20/month sub to ChatGPT Pro and now uses Bard, which is "free".
(Cynical quotes mine, because you know, Google isn't a charity.)

Some thoughts about that:
- ChatGPT has name recognition and first mover advantage. Everybody has heard about ChatGPT. All the new "AI-powered" apps market themselves as the "ChatGPT of ...".
- On the other hand, I'd be surprised if more than 1% of the general population has even heard about Bard. The product has improved, but let's be honest, the name still kinda blows.
- There's no switching cost and zero friction to go from one to the other. There isn't even a learning curve as both UI are almost identical.
- Embedding this tech in existing products is a big deal since Google has a quasi-monopoly on browsers, search, and emails.
- These LLMs are extremely expensive, I remember reading somewhere that each prompt costs OpenAI about 30 cents.
- Who's gonna win: ChatGPT, Bard, or a surprise contender? Don't know, don't care. I have a feeling the big money won't be made by the maker of these toys anyway, but by the companies and individuals who know how to wield their power (almost for free) and crush their competitors.
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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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nicolas wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 7:56 pm

- Who's gonna win: ChatGPT, Bard, or a surprise contender? Don't know, don't care. I have a feeling the big money won't be made by the maker of these toys anyway, but by the companies and individuals who know how to wield their power (almost for free) and crush their competitors.
It is likely that the open-source community will win, albeit indirectly. They are moving quickly and expanding the capabilities of ChatGPT, with some finding ways to make the model smaller and faster. This viewpoint is supported indirectly by a Google engineer and other experts. Ultimately, it is possible that the big players will be left behind compared to these innovative chaps

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... ai-chatgpt

https://indianexpress.com/article/techn ... e-8595173/

Simply put, the open source community was able to rapidly iterate on the basis of available information — far more quickly than OpenAI and Google, which depend on extremely large and complex in-house models that nobody else has access to.

But how was that possible? How could just a bunch of nerdy hackers leapfrog multibillion giants which had spent years developing their language models? They couldn’t have done it all from scratch, could they? Surely had to have something to work on first?

Yes, they did. Meta’s own language model that was leaked on 4chan in March 2023.

Whether the leak was a deliberate decision by the company or a hack (be it internal or external), it gave the global community firsthand access to the source code of a proprietary model — even if a bit underdeveloped at the time.

Within two months, enthusiasts have filled the gaps all on their own.

“At the beginning of March, the open source community got their hands on their first really capable foundation model, as Meta’s LLaMA was leaked to the public. It had no instruction or conversation tuning, and no RLHF. Nonetheless, the community immediately understood the significance of what they had been given.

A tremendous outpouring of innovation followed, with just days between major developments. Here we are, barely a month later, and there are variants with instruction tuning, quantisation, quality improvements, human evals, multimodality, RLHF, etcetera, many of which build on each other.

Most importantly, they have solved the scaling problem to the extent that anyone can tinker. Many of the new ideas are from ordinary people.

The barrier to entry for training and experimentation has dropped from the total output of a major research organization to one person, an evening, and a beefy laptop.”

– Google “We Have No Moat, And Neither Does OpenAI”
Anybody can be a valuable contributor today, and the community itself decides about what succeeds and what doesn’t.
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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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nicolas wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 7:56 pm
- Who's gonna win: ChatGPT, Bard, or a surprise contender? Don't know, don't care. I have a feeling the big money won't be made by the maker of these toys anyway, but by the companies and individuals who know how to wield their power (almost for free) and crush their competitors.
Agreed. I have no allegience to any.
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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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*****

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor ... essionals/

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, the creator of the ChatGPT chatbot, has tried to manage expectations: “ChatGPT is incredibly limited, but good enough at some things to create a misleading impression of greatness,” he said.

*****

The above is a pretty good, short read on A.I. for those of us like myself who are non-coders, but still want to keep up a bit with the A.I. battle to the death.

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elon with laser eyes ... gonna smash chattygeepee to the ground like dead turkey!
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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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Another decent, quick read on A.I., albeit with a decidedly China-friendly bias (IMHO) - I suspect he's being paid by the CCP under-the-table, given the content and his tenure as president of Google's China division.

Still, he's got a cool name (Kai Fu-Lee, sounds like the Kung Flu or something), and does make some reasonable points:

https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/in ... -10019424/

Harry made me aware of this article.

Oh yeah, a notable mistake in the article - A.I.'s victory over the world champion in Go in 2017 was over a Korean champion, not a Chinese champion, from what I remember. Another clue to Kai Fu-Lee being bribed by the CCP.

:lol:
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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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OpenAI hit with lawsuits:
OpenAI, the company behind the viral ChatGPT tool, has been hit with a lawsuit alleging the company stole and misappropriated vast swaths of peoples’ data from the internet to train its AI tools.

The proposed class action lawsuit, filed Wednesday in a California federal court, claims that OpenAI secretly scraped “massive amounts of personal data from the internet,” according to the complaint. The nearly 160-page complaint alleges that this personal data, including “essentially every piece of data exchanged on the internet it could take,” was also seized by the company without notice, consent or “just compensation.”

Moreover, this data scraping occurred at an “unprecedented scale,” the suit claims.

OpenAI did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for comment Wednesday. Microsoft, a major investor into OpenAI, was also named as a defendant in the suit and did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/28/tech/ope ... index.html

And:
The lawsuit says neither Tremblay nor Awad, both writers who live in Massachusetts, consented to the use of their copyrighted books as training material for ChatGPT. Nonetheless, "their copyrighted materials were ingested and used to train ChatGPT."

Tremblay owns registered copyrights in several books, including "The Cabin at the End of the World." Awad owns registered copyrights in several books, including "13 Ways of Looking at a Fat Girl" and "Bunny."
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/ ... sted-books

Karl Denninger thinks they are in trouble:
At a recent academic conference where I was asked to be part of the Keynote Panel on AI Ethics I pointed out that so-called "General AI" or "Generative AI" was basically worthless without training data and the "taking" of such data is, under existing copyright law, illegal.

That is, you own every bit of expression you put out into the world, no matter the method or media. By expressing it you give a reasonable set of permissions to others (e.g. if you speak on a street corner anyone there can listen to you, and in the modern era, they can probably live-stream you too -- but not monetize it.)

But, that expression does not grant someone a license to use it to train a language model and then try to monetize the output of said model. While the actual theft "per-person" is small stealing a penny is still stealing; we are merely arguing over the magnitude, not the act, and in aggregate without it there is no value there in the model at all.
This is potentially serious trouble for the AI owners because a registered work, if used like this, exposes you to statutory damages which means you don't need to prove economic harm -- only the taking. And we're not talking small-ball money either; $150,000 per infringement which they are indeed seeking.
You can read Denninger's full take here:

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=249202
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Re: AI is improving rapidly (CHATGPT)

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Here's an excerpt from a newsletter I received today (The Tokenist 5 Minute Finance, free):
Over the past couple months, ChatGPT users might've observed an uptick in the model's hallucinations and a drop in reliability. This is what typically happens when large language models (LLMs) can’t tell the difference between fiction and reality.

Further, developers could aggravate the problem by making the AI too accommodating to user’s input expectations. The more the public interacts, the more chances for errors - earning it unflattering labels.

Image
Across the board, GPT-4 took a drastic performance blow. Image courtesy of Stanford University and UC Berkeley.

The AI, once renowned for pioneering LLMs and experiencing record user growth, now fumbles with logic.

For example, even if it correctly deconstructions a problem, it might conclude inaccurately like asserting “17077 is a prime number”.

Two implications emerge:
  • Warning Enchantment with AI: The initial awe over AI's capabilities is now giving way to frustration. This raises concerns over its potential integration into business operations.
  • AI's Nascent Stage: Despite multi-billion dollar AI investments, we are just entering the AI race.
OpenAI may have sparked the pioneering push, but if not careful, it may end up like Napster, forgotten in the bin of internet history.

To that effect, it is no wonder why Meta and Microsoft, both traditional monopolies, are willing to explore an open-sourced approach to LLMs. This is the Llama 2 family of LLMs, now powered by Microsoft’s Azure computing cloud.

Their objective is refining AI while managing the infrastructure efficiently.

Meanwhile, Apple is experimenting with 'Apple GPT' in its Ajax framework, inspired by Google's Jax. Apple GPT launch is eagerly anticipated next year.

On Google's end, the rumor mill turned into high gear as well.

According to NYT’s anonymous sources, the data monopolist has approached Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal to test a news-generating AI suite called Genesis, which aims to revolutionize content creation.

Ultimately, the AI that hallucinates the least will be the victor.
Full study referenced here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.09009.pdf
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