Swarm Behavior Predicts Oil’s Bottom
One thing you should never do is listen to fools who scream that the world is going to end or a market is going to continue crashing forever. Some markets are more manipulated than others; there are no such things as free markets today. So you need to accept that and move on. Watch the Video towards the end of this article, where the brain surgeons go on to predict that oil could now hit $10.00 a barrel. What is interesting is that in most cases these same naysayers were stating that oil would continue soaring higher when it was trading over $100.00
Instead, focus on the mass Psychology aspect of things, when everyone is gloomy it is a sure signal that a bottom is close at hand. This is what we had to say in February of this year. The content below is extracted the market update, which is sent out to our paid subscribers.
Nothing much to add here, other than the projected outlook has come to pass. Oil should not close below $30.00 on a monthly basis to indicate a tradable bottom is in place. The move to new lows suggests that another test of the lows is possible with a strong chance of overshooting to the 23.00 ranges. Market Update Feb 17, 2016
Swarm Behavior and The Price Of Oil
From a pattern, perspective oil has fulfilled the projections of putting in a bottom in Feb, after dropping down to the $26.00 ranges it is up almost 20%. However, until the trend turns positive, the lows could be rapidly tested again with a possible overshoot to the 23.00-24.00 ranges, after which another fast reversal should take oil above 30.00. Notice that the $30.00 price point level has held on a monthly basis.
Oil has not closed below this important level on a monthly basis for two months in a row, and this has to be viewed as a very bullish development. Our overall view is for crude oil to trend higher with the possibility of trading past the $55.00 ranges. In the face of extreme negativity, oil is reversing, just as it collapsed in the face of Euphoria. A weekly close above 35.00 will set the foundation for oil to trade past the main downtrend line and in doing so send the first signal for a move to the $50 plus ranges. Market Update Feb 29, 2016
Now to the Video making the case for $10.00 which sadly will not come to pass anytime soon; we don’t expect oil prices to trade up forever, in fact, renewable energy will displace oil in the near future. As early as 2020, the cost of an electric car could be comparable to that of a Petrol-powered car.
Must Read: Alternative Energy set to replace oil
Update on the Overall Stock Market Aug 2019
It takes zero effort to panic and the reward is exactly zero; those that panic in the face of adversity are given what they deserve. In terms of the market that means less than zero, as the masses always sell at the bottom and buy at the top. The astute individual that does not panic walks away with a huge reward and that is how it’s been for millennia and nothing is going to change for another 1000 years.
There is no law or set rules when it comes to the markets other than having the ability to adapt to a given situation. We are dealing with emotions and when emotions do the talking, chaos is set free. And that is why like cattle, the lemmings always stampede when the markets sell-off. The masses also tend to jump in when the markets are about to crash. Hundreds of years have passed since the Tulip bubble and nothing has changed.
The markets are volatile (Sept to Oct period) and the crowd tends to overreact to the news. Remember, every disaster becomes a disaster because the masses were conned into believing a false narrative. You say no way; well then how come reacting to disasters pays so poorly. The stock market is the best barometer for the disaster-prone. If disasters paid off well, then the Dow should be closer to zero than 27K.