Long term Opportunities - Tactical Investor

Diversifying Portfolios: Long-Term Opportunities in Market

Updated Oct 2, 2016

We will examine markets that are already in a bullish phase (Dow, SPX, etc.) and markets that are close to putting a bottom and turning around. Our analysis will be based on the slow-moving monthly chart (each bar on the graph represents a month’s worth of data), and as a result of this, we will not update the charts on a weekly basis unless the outlook changes significantly. The most significant gains come from entering a market at the onset of a new trend change. As we progress, we will put fewer notes below each chart; look at older updates if you need clarification. The principle is relatively simple. Reading one or two of the older updates listed below should suffice.

Individuals willing to take on a small amount of risk can put the following strategy into play. When both the Custom MACDs and Custom RSI are trading in the extremely oversold ranges, you could open up positions in the strongest stocks in the overall Market or in stores from the Top 10 sectors. 75% of the time, the stocks in the corresponding industry tend to experience decent moves when both MACDs and RSI are trading in the oversold ranges.

Navigating Market Trends: Unveiling Long-Term Opportunities for China

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Looking at the chart below, you will understand why there is no need to panic if there is no update every two weeks. These are slow-moving monthly charts, and when a trend changes, it is infrequent to reverse course immediately. If there is a trend change, we will notify everyone immediately. Traders willing to act on their own should use strong pullbacks

to build positions in stocks such as BABA, BIDU, QIHU, NTES, TCEHY, CHL, etc

Our long-term outlook on China remains bullish, and because of the MACD crossover, we increased the number of plays we would like to establish a position in.

Exploring Long-Term Opportunities in Dow

The Dow has rallied sharply, yet our indicators are still trading in the oversold ranges on the monthly charts. In simple language, all sharp corrections should be viewed as manna from heaven.

Suppose the 90SMA is tested by some miracle, back the truck up and load it to the max. This does not occur too often, especially when the trend is up. Bullish sentiment remains below the 38% range and has not come close to testing the 50% range. No market breaks down till the masses are on board.

Gold Rush: Exploring Long-Term Opportunities in the Precious Metal Market

While one can state that the move in Gold bullion is normal, one cannot state the same for Gold and Silver stocks. They experienced powerful upward moves. Something seems to be a bit off here because they have experienced such strong moves, but Gold Bullion has not even made it past $1400. The current prices are more reflective of Gold trading north of 1650. July 15, 2016

More and more, it appears that Gold rallied on fears stemming from Brexit, Gold stocks, in general, have not been doing much and many are showing early signs of topping out.

Gold did something somewhat unexpected. It rallied in the face of a rising dollar. This could be construed as a long-term signal that Gold is decoupling from the dollar and trading upwards on its own merits. The biggest surprise has come from Gold stocks, they have mounted ferocious rallies, but for some reason, Gold bullion is not trading at levels that would justify such prices. July 15, 2016

Gold stopped trading in tandem with the dollar, and even on days when it shows signs of weakness, the reaction is muted from the Gold market. This is why we used the word “so what” when we stated that you should not worry that you missed the first leg of this bull market, as there are many other markets out there. China and Russia for example, look much more attractive than Gold. Oil also, for the time being, looks far more attractive than Gold.

If Gold does not break past 1365 soon and stay above this level every week, then it’s almost guaranteed that when it pulls back again, the downward move will be pretty intense. It could end up trading to or below $1000.00. Another surprising development is that the trend shows no signs of turning bullish or strengthing since the last update.

Unlocking Profit Potential: Mastering the Art of Oil Trading

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Oil continues to follow the projected path with perfection and no interruption; contrast the action in oil to that of Gold. The trend moved from neutral to positive quickly, which is a rather interesting development. However, the score is not very high; normally, the trend swings into the extreme bullish zone. We have a mildly bullish trend. This suggests that we should wait for the indicators in the weekly chart to move into the oversold ranges again, or oil has to let some steam and shed at least $10.00. Update May 17th, 2016

The trend has strengthened, and we might get the $10.00 pullback we sought. On that note, the stock PZE and a few others are showing signs of strength during this pullback, so we will reevaluate our decision to close the position out. Update July 15, 2016

Oil let out steam and shed over 10 dollars before a bottom took hold. Oil continues to trade toward the projected path we laid out months ago.

Oil is still expected to trade in the 55.00 range, and depending on what the dollar is doing, it could trade to 65.00. However, our focus will now be on the 55.00-58.00 range. At that point, we will most likely close any long positions we have in oil stocks.

Additional opportunities

The trend is still neutral in Turkey, but it has shown no signs of strengthening for the last few weeks. Conversely, it also has shown no signs of weakening.

Those who followed our suggestions are still in the black, as the average entry price for TUR should have been 38.00 or better. TKC has still not put in a bottom if you got in at 9.00 or better; a suggested stop would be in the 6.80-7.00 range. TKC is a riskier option in comparison to the ETF TUR.