Religious Provocation Index June  2014

The Index continues to soar to new highs, and has not experienced a meaningful correction since its inception.  This Index accurately predicted that things would get worse In Iraq, when the U.S administration was painting a rosy picture. It also accurately predicted that the situation in Afghanistan would turn violent and that we would end up losing the war there.  The Index went on to predict that a new War would erupt in the Middle East  towards the  end of 2005 and the quick war between Hezbollah and Israel followed shortly after that.    In late 2009 and early 2010, the Index predicted that there would be more tensions and conflict in the world and shortly after that we had the Arab spring.  This Index has gone on to predict almost every major incident before its occurrence and the fact that it continues to trend to new highs, suggests that the situation is only going to get worse with time.  The Conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has now entangled the USA and Europe is a clear example of this.

Extracted from the April 1. 2014 Market Update 

This index is roaring and is showing no signs of letting up.  Since we introduced this index, it has been in a super bull market, and it has yet to experience a strong correction.   The conclusion is clear; the number of aggressive incidents between different cultures, religions and nations will continue to increase, and we can expect another major spike soon.   When one factors this with the uptick in the Asian index it provides a longer-term picture of what we can and should expect. Note that a large part of Russia is in Asia and for all intents and purposes, Russia and the former Soviet Union countries can be considered to be somewhat part of this index.  The rise in these two indices indicates that new world leaders are emerging and the increased amount of aggression emanating from Russia and China are indicative of this.  The situation in Ukraine is far from over; what has occurred so far is probably just the tip of the iceberg?  What our extremely biased press is revealing and what is really taking place are two different things. Our associates who are in the area are providing us with a completely different overview of what is going on.  In short, they state that most people in Crimea are happy with the decision to leave Ukraine and that increasingly more and more of the Eastern part of Ukraine is viewing a possible alliance/merger with Russia in a favorable light. This is what our associates in the East of Ukraine are stating; the opinion from those in the West is generally opposite of this.  Thus it would not surprise us after the new elections are held if the East starts to push for a split or even holds its own referendum to form some sort of stronger alliance with Russia.

Here is one thing that the press has not mentioned. All those in Crimea are now having their pensions recalculated and in most cases are going to receive 100-200% more.  Currently, the average pension in Ukraine pays between 80-150 US dollars; the only way to survive on this sum is to own your flat and basically eat no or next to no meat at all.  The day of free apartments and housing are over; the young generation has to purchase their apartments and in most cases, the price is so high relative to their earnings that they have no chance of ever buying one. Another example; to join the traffic police force, you have to pay $3000, and then you will be entitled to a salary of $200 a month.  The salaries are extremely low, the corruption extremely high and the gap between the rich, and the poor is extreme.   As more of the East gets wind of the pension recalculation programs and higher salaries, there will be a bigger push to break away.  One of our associates in the East described the situation like this.  Her husband who is an officer for 20 years, who is second in command, earns less than her niece in Russia (small city) who works as assistant in one of the courts.  In this day and era where money plays such a big role (we are now in the money means everything stage), it is just a matter of time before the East either decides to either join with Russia or break away from the West of Ukraine.  The noise is already increasing, and it will soon turn into a roar.  This will be the precursor for more problems in Europe; one front the number of religious confrontations will increase, especially in the north of Europe, then there will be a lot of problems rising between the different members of the EU.

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Previous readings of the religious provocation Index

TI Proprietary indices 2007

Religious Provocation Index 2007