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Excerpts
From Past Market Updates
The Dow is in
the top of its cyclic range. Its possible that the Dow could spike
to 9700 but most likely it will test the 9680 area and then start to
correct.
1st target 9600 2nd target 9550,
extreme downside targets 9450.
After which it should begin to re bound, these targets are based on
hourly cycles, and have nothing to do with longer-term analysis.
( Mkt update Sept 21. 2003) all
downside targets were hit and surpassed
the news, the
outlook and the prognosis is dire as far as one can see, the further
you look the worse the situation appears to be and there appears
to be no relief in sight
1)
Unemployment getting worse, and no sign of it getting better plus no
one has any idea when things will turnaround, the statistics are
full of lies we lost over 100K jobs so far, and the unemployment
rate is still 5.8%, hum I would like to lose 1 million dollars and
still be worth 2 million ( If I was worth 2 million before I lost
the 1 million)
2)
Snow the New guy in charge will either melt away soon or help create
a blizzard of money soon, he is seeking to
raise the debt ceiling, and it will be raised, sooner than later
3)
This war is going to cost more than the lying pathetic figure of 80
billion that they have quoted so far, by the way 9 billion from
there is ear marked for Israel for what I have no idea they do
nothing for us but suck money from us each and every year(this money
could be used to helf Americans who are hurting really badly due to
this economic slump we have here back home), 8.5 billon is going to
Turkey because they needed to bribe the hell out of them just to be
able to use their airspaces. It was estimated that the cost of
sitting in the desert doing nothing but hunting for rats would be 10
billon a month, now that they are firing away at anything that
moves, and are sending in another 120K troops, with bombs costing in
excess of 600K each, we will eat through this budget like a hot
knife through butter, hence more printing.
4)
Unemployment is going to keep going up and I am sure they will keep
extending benefits which cost money and mysteriously the percentage,
of unemployed won’t move, in parts of Long Island, which is close to
New York
city the unemployment is over 10%, before the economic down turn
here, getting a job was rather easy.
5)
All the tax cuts, another burden
6)
The biggest increase in military spending ever and this was before
the war began
7)
Every major company saying they can’t see any rays of light
8)
Huge derivative situation waiting to possibly explode
9)
The huge pension under funding reality that is going to suck profits
from all companies
10)
The huge deficits that all states are experiencing and now wait for
the big news, the government eventually defaulting on their bonds,
well I should say the states, they are broke, The peoples republic
of California has the biggest budget deficit, its deficit is so big
that is almost bigger than all the state deficits put together.
11)
In most trading shops, a 2% loss
of their total derivative portfolio is considered to be normal. For
JPMorgan, a 2% loss is equivalent to their assets
So what am I
getting at, well get ready for the PPT to really come out swinging
full force sometime soon, they will attack so hard, that they will
create the impression that we are in a new bull mkt, it will be the
repeat of the last crash, we had a bull run up when we crashed last
time in 1929 that brought the averages almost on par to their old
highs, then they plunged like rocks.
Well sometime in the near future this will happen again here and you
will be tempted to think that we are back in a raging bull market,
the only thing you will be in is a raging market full of BS, off
course we aim to take advantage of this situation when it does
occur, because there will be some serious money to be made here.
Question is what will Gold do, it will also take off, this is my
guess of how things will play out, we will probably get a rally in
the gold mkt shortly, that will occur with the equity rally, then
while the Gold market carries on roaring we will get a nice healthy
pull back or should I say a nice fake healthy pull back, at which
time gold should be making its peak, then while gold pulls back the
indexes should roar to new highs and its possible that we finish
this year up, that’s how things are looking so far with the data
that I have now. ( From mkt update April 6, 2003)
So far it seems
this prediction has come true.
When it
comes to Gold I have no problems going for the Jugular, right now it
looks like we are on the blood donating side, and our jugular has
almost been slashed when it comes to gold, but a turn around is
close at hand, you might be tempted to say, Hey Sol how the hell do
you know this?
Well look at
today, bullion dropped over 5 dollars and gold stocks hardly budged,
at leas the strong ones hardly moved, RANGY, GOLD, LIHRY, GSS, CDE,
KGC, IAG, GLG, ETC , in fact the funny thing is that many of them
closed up or unchanged, this is a positive divergence, very
important, it shows you that Gold stocks have discounted the worst
news and are leading the way, last time they lead the way down, they
started to drop even when bullion was making new highs, so just
remember good times are very close at hand. ( Mkt update April
11, 2003)
I have said it again and I will say it again and again, the single
best investment for the next decade is Gold, if you don't have any
bullion or Gold shares now is the time to start loading up, everyone
hates the Gold sector, load up now, don't buy when the sector is
loved, that will be the time to sell. Make sure you have 50% of your
investing portfolio in long term Gold positions. ( Nov 2002)
March 16,2003
GOLD
I had sent out gold entry prices many
times on gold stocks, on march 16 I even sent out a review list of
our positions many of the stocks that had made new lows, revisited
those lows once more look now where the stocks were and now are, the
prices below are the ones from the march 16 update. Many of the
stocks hit the screaming buy targets and went even lower which made
them unbelievable buys. If you look at the stocks that I have
labeled as being the strongest ones, they made their lows long ago
when bullion was at a much higher price and are now rising, a
Positive divergence which is bullish
From march 16 2003 update
Quick review of
our stocks right now.
Don't buy these stocks now, the entry
points have long since been surpassed.
Stock |
Normal Entry
|
Mouth Watering
Entry |
Screaming buy
|
Lowest Price |
Current Price
|
GSS |
Hit |
X |
X |
1.44 |
1.70 |
KGC |
Hit |
Hit |
Hit |
5.66 |
6.18 |
GFI |
Hit |
Hit |
Hit |
10.45 |
10.80 |
RIC |
Hit |
Hit |
Hit |
2.95 |
3.31 |
RANGY |
Hit |
Hit |
|
8.20 |
9.16 |
GOLD |
Hit |
Hit |
|
9.55 |
11.98 |
GG |
Hit |
Hit |
|
9.64 |
10.36 |
GLG |
Hit |
Hit |
|
8.45 |
9.85 |
VGZ |
Hit |
Hit |
|
2.80 |
3.46 |
LIHRY |
X |
X |
X |
15.80 |
16.75 |
IAG |
Hit |
Hit |
Hit |
3.82 |
4.25 |
CDE |
Hit |
Hit |
Hit
|
1.10 |
1.34 |
RGLD I sent out a warning to wait on this one after the bad news
hit. Its forming a channel and soon we will add the stock.( X
denotes price was not hit)
The top guys here based on Standard
deviation analysis, regression analysis, and few other TA tools and
my own systems are in order of strength
RANGY,GOLD,GSS,IAG,GLG,KGC, LIHRY.
Speculative stocks that look very good
are
CDE( top silver play),MNG, CUSIF (
from mkt update march 2003)
Currencies
As mentioned we
were expecting a technical rally in the Dollar and we currently have
one, once again we are glad that luck is on our side to have made
that prediction a reality from a high of 119 the Euro hit a low of
114 something, we still believe it is possible for the Euro to get
down to 112, though we would not put all are eggs in one basket
waiting for that target to be hit. ( June 25,2003)
Special
note for those of you that have not bought any bullion yet and are
looking to buy some, this would be a good time to start nibbling as
the prices are about 25 dollars lower than just a few weeks ago and
the dollar is still weak and not going to get any stronger (
June 25.2003)
Copyright Ultimate Market
Timing System 2001-2007
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