I am currently on a road trip and conducting my own investment sentiment survey. The market is in a small correction mode. If we can hold 10360 then we should start to rally soon, if not then 10200 will be tested. We could go as low as 10,000 and the picture still would look good. Most likely the bears are once again going to mistake this correction for the big crash and get their heads handed to them on a Tin platter. So avoid shorting this market, rather stay on the sidelines waiting for opportune moments to go long. The market has now entered the stage where it is a pure stock pickers market. In other words you pick the wrong stock and you could get killed. So make sure you are using your TA tools and Mass psychology sentiment indicators well or consider joining the market update where the work is done for you.

Gold is currently correcting as predicted and we would avoid buying any Gold stocks yet. However a lovely list of Gold stocks are slowly but surely entering the oversold region and once our indicators give a buy signal on them we will start to load up on them. Last time our indicators gave a buy signal was from Jan-April 2003. We picked up CDE and GSS both for under 1.70, in addition 100% of our selections showed profits. We do not trade on whims but use discipline to go long. So avoid jumping in to early.

First all I would like to state that I am sorry for not updating this page earlier i simply have been over loaded, but my out look has not changed since the last update. The market is still in a bullish phase. However greed levels are rising so we can start to expect more volatility now as more and more people start to jump on the band wagon but as soon as they taste some profits they start to flee for the exits. This in and out movement is going to increase the volatility significantly. Despite all that is being blabbered all over the net, the trend is still up and fighting the trend is the surest way to get slaughtered.

Daily Market Statistics	HIST	Thu	Fri	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu
S&P 500 (SPX)	Chart	1131,92	1121,86	1127,23	1121,22	1130,52	1132,05
Futures Premium H4	Chart	-2,52	-1,96	1,07	0,08	0,78	1,15
Advancing Issues	Chart	2,033	1,639	2,079	1,627	2,241	1,641
Declining Issues	Chart	1,254	1,661	1,230	1,687	1,041	1,661
Total Issues		3,465	3,471	3,458	3,470	3,461	3,444
Up Volume	Chart	1,246,665	615,128	913,756	608,429	1,116,864	863,887
Down Volume	Chart	603,590	1,035,398	535,385	921,249	377,517	799,025
Total Volume	Chart	1,860,663	1,665,938	1,466,374	1,548,292	1,518,187	1,695,016
New Highs		506	466	425	372	428	439
New Lows		6	6	2	3	3	3
Arms (Trin)	Chart	0,78	1,66	0,99	1,46	0,73	0,91
Closing Tick		930	204	464	841	1029	618
CBOE Put/Call Ratio	Chart	0,65	0,65	0,79	0,61	0,66	0,58
VIX	Chart	15,61	16,75	16,82	18,04	16,75	15,56
Odd Lot Purchases	Chart	11264,3	10311,9	12902,8	10171,7	11389,6
Odd Lot Sales	Chart	8173,2	10344,4	7706,8	10298,3	6789,0
Odd Lot Short Sales	Chart	550,8	716,9	686,9	686,2	783,0

source www.wallstreetcourier.com

If you take a look at the above chart we still notice the same pervasive pattern. when we decline we do so on lower volume generally and when we rise we do so on higher volume. in addition the new highs are still blasting the hell out of the new lows, indicating that the market internals are very healthy indeed.

Source: Investors Intelligence

Market Sentiment

Bullish Advisors: 56.4% Bearish Advisors: 18.8%

If we look at the above data we see that the advisors are all bullish but it really does not matter what they think. what really matter is what the average Joe thinks and the numbers change drastically when we look at what the little guy is doing. The advisors are broken clocks they all band together so eventually they have to be right, even a broken clock is correct once a day.

If we look at the above numbers we see that the average persons perception is bullish, but the actual sentiment value show that there are more bears. Perceptions are not to be trusted as they change all the time and it costs you nothing to perceive something, but when you take a stance you have something to lose.

Conclusion the average Joe is far from bullish and so the market will carry on climbing. Sometime next week or maybe even on the weekend I will put some weekly targets for the Dow. This will be a very small preview of the high powered Dow futures Trading room we are going to open. We have decided to call it the Live Scorpion Room, the aim of this room is going to be grab 20-40 points a day from the Dow. Each point is valued at 10 dollars if you play the full Dow contract or 5 dollars if you play the mini. If this is something that might interest you. Then contact us at viptrader@tacticalinvestor.com . We will only be taking 15-20 people and expect to be sold out in record time. Mkt update clients will get first preference.

once again if you short do so with extreme caution or risk losing your head. The safest bet is to sit out this last stage or Join an advisory service that knows what it is doing. We have had remarkable results so far in the mkt update service and The highlander trading club. last year both closed with 100% wins in all stocks and ETF plays and so far this year we are still 100% accurate with no closed losing positions. However feel free to use any service. just make sure that they are not extremely bearish and know how to price in currency markets into the financial equation.

As I stated in my last update on the 23rd this mkt is in a bullish mode and this time of the year is usually one where the markets tend to rally, so the combined effect is going to be very dangerous for anyone holding shorts for to long. All sentiment indicators still have a very large camp of investors in the Neutral section, which I stated last time was just as good as being Bearish. It is very interesting to note my initial targets that i posted in the first contrarian round table series have been hit.

If we can hold in the 8,800 to 9,000 range, then the outcome looks rather interesting. Esoteric cycle analysis (our proprietary indicator at the Tactical Investor) is basically suggesting the following targets if we can hold the above ranges:

1st target will be a break of the Dow over the 10,000 range
2nd target 10,500
3rd target 11,400
Extreme target 11,7000 11/19/2003

Now that the first target has been met and the second target was almost hit this week, where do we stand. That is the interesting part, the 3rd target depends a lot on the masses. I will write more on this in the next update. I do want to state this for the record, that I will talk in broad based general terms here and this information can still be used to make money by the astute investor, however I have to reserve specific recommendations for our subscribers. On that note those who listened to us, via our free newsletter when we stated that the Oil and natural gas sector was oversold and represented a good buy are now very happy. This was one of the rare occasions where we actually mentioned some stocks 90% of which are now all at higher prices.

First of all I would like to wish you all a very merry Christmas and happy new year. The market usually heads up this time of the year and I think that all of you bears better put your personal bias aside and take a look at the facts. My update today will be brief, next week I will talk in detail about sentiment indicators that we use in the mkt update and Highlander services. These indicators coupled with our other proprietary indicators have kept us on the right side of the market and saved us from nasty loses. Small cap stocks should do very well from now till the end of February. John Tyler and I will be releasing our exclusive mkt forecasts for next year where we will talk about where we see the Dow going, what gold will do, the US dollar etc.

I notice that more and more players are moving into the neutral camp, this is just as good as being bearish. Neutral means that they have been beaten up so badly that they don't know what to think. The net effect is that this is still very bullish for the market. The oil service sector and Natural gas sector that we took positions in about one month ago are doing very well and continue to represent very great value plays. In addition futures players that went long natural gas made a fortune as they rode it from 4.80 all the way to 7.

What can you do. if you are bearish I suggest you look at the wounds you have inflicted on yourself. lick them clean and make sure you do not repeat the same mistakes. there will be a day to short the market, unfortunately we are not there yet. The only way to play the short side, is if you are jumping in and out. so far the best way to play this market has been to look at the trend . simple trend line analysis has revealed a lot. The intermediate and short term trends are up. every time the market pulls back and hits the up trend line should be viewed as an opportune time to buy stocks in sectors that are oversold. once the trend lines are broken then one can begin to short more aggressively, until then shorting will just result in severe blood loss and possibly loss of consciousness

We did correct yesterday on heavier volume on both indexes the Dow and the NASDAQ, however if you take a look at the above table you will see that new highs pummeled the new lows on a down day, this shows that the market internals are still healthy and that most likely the path of least resistance is still to the upside.

Hussein's capture also adds an element of relief to the markets, and the market displayed what is normal now, sell on the news buy on the worry. This market is not for the faint hearted and for those not familiar with the concepts of Mass psychology, Technical Analysis and now you also have to be able to understand the currency markets, you are better of sitting on the sidelines while you learn, instead of getting burnt alive.. So make sure if you play alone that you at least have a good grasp of Technical analysis and some rudimentary concepts of Mass psychology.

For those traders who are able to do some work but need guidance then you might consider looking at THE HIGHLANDER CLUB where we do most of the work and provide you wider range entry points, all you need is some basic TA knowledge.

Its also interesting to note that the VIX keeps setting new lows while the market rises. It seems we have had reached a new paradigm. the reason that VIX maybe losing its value as indicator is simply because it is being used by almost everyone as is the put call ratio. when any indicator suddenly has a huge surge in usage, it usually tends to lose its effectiveness. The Vix will be very useful one day, and the ironic part is that it will be most useful when almost everyone has given up on it. The currency component makes timing this market very hard, if you are not familiar with how the currency market functions. If you have read my previous The Dow Has Done Zilch This Year you will be able to see how deceptive this market is. I have expanded on this topic in my most recent essay The BS Bull Stay clear or Ride?

Daily Market Statistics	HIST	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Mon
S&P 500 (SPX)	Chart	1069,30	1060,18	1059,05	1071,21	1074,14	1068,04
Futures Premium Z3	Chart	-0,20	0,32	1,75	1,09	-0,24	0,76
Advancing Issues	Chart	2,157	1,285	1,277	2,478	2,160	1,278
Declining Issues	Chart	1,088	1,994	2,025	795	1,127	2,018
Total Issues		3,428	3,449	3,458	3,435	3,448	3,447
Up Volume	Chart	738,136	409,584	515,482	1,236,397	774,667	515,631
Down Volume	Chart	438,267	999,176	879,540	185,059	420,191	928,001
Total Volume	Chart	1,193,630	1,421,718	1,412,399	1,443,027	1,214,024	1,460,627
New Highs		339	342	147	263	343	435
New Lows		5	7	11	13	11	10
Arms (Trin)	Chart	1,18	1,57	1,08	0,47	1,04	1,14
Closing Tick		818	677	414	715	962	-157
CBOE Put/Call Ratio	Chart	0,93	0,73	0,81	0,67	0,75	0,70
VIX	Chart	16,54	17,63	17,87	16,73	16,41	17,23
Odd Lot Purchases	Chart	9957,9	8387,6	8469,0	10714,2	7688,8
Odd Lot Sales	Chart	6533,8	10283,6	8378,6	6420,3	7595,2
Odd Lot Short Sales	Chart	532,3	761,5	647,3	682,7	687,2