Extracted from Dec 31, 2012 Market Update
Gold has virtually confirmed that it is going to head much lower in 2013. A test of the $1200-$1300 ranges is expected, though we will start establishing positions a bit earlier. Only after this is it expected to put in a long term secondary bottom and then head upwards to challenge the $2000. Once a bottom is in place we will be looking for a test of the $2400-$2600 ranges before another strong correction takes hold. We will be employing a very aggressive strategy once a bottom is in place. While the strategy will be aggressive, in terms of risk, it will be on the same level as purchasing the actual stock.
In the shorter term time frames, Gold has generated a buy on the hourly charts so it has the potential to trade to the 1700 -1725 ranges. At that point if a new daily buy is generated Gold could trade past 1750 before topping out. We will therefore base our exit on the performance of Gold bullion and or DRD. At this point, the expectation is that we will be out of these plays before the end of January. If a sell is triggered, we will short some of these plays. If you prefer to use options, you could always sell puts.
Gold has minor resistance in the 1670 ranges. If it closes above this level, it should be able to trade to the 1715-1725 ranges. At that point, we will decide if we should continue holding our positions or not. Market update Dec 23, 2012
It closed above 1670 so it has given the first signal that it is ready to test the 1715-7125 ranges. A new buy signal on the daily charts would be a much stronger confirmation. If this comes to pass, gold should be able to trade well past 1725 before topping out.