All men can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved. Sun Tzu
This index gives one an idea of how the global economy is doing; it combines the economic information of 30 of the world’s largest companies. If it is faring badly, then it’s a signal that the global economy is not holding up well.
The one year chart illustrates that all is well on the surface and that the process of flooding the markets with hot money, in general, is working rather well. The index could drop all the way down to 7200, and the short-term outlook would remain bullish. We are fully aware that this economic recovery is illusory, but complaining and whining about this does not provide one with any extra insights into the markets. We need to focus on what is really going on and how the masses interpret that data. The truth is irrelevant if only you are aware of it; if the masses think otherwise, what appears as the truth to you could, in fact, be viewed as a lie by the crowd. The truth can set you free, but in most cases it can be detrimental to your health and wealth; at least as far as the markets are concerned.
The longer term chart illustrates that this index is consolidating. As long as it does not close below 6600 on a monthly basis, the outlook will remain bullish. One could even argue that is its building a base from which it could easily springboard to and past 8400. Ideally, the current pullback will end in the 7100-7200 ranges, with a possible overshoot to the 6900 ranges. This index is informing us that even though everything out there is twisted and manipulated the financial markets are behaving as if everything is fine and dandy. The same theme applies here, the stronger the pull back, the better the buying opportunity
The overall trend in the BBC Global Index, as well as the Dow industrials, is up, and so we will repeat what we have been stating for quite some time now; the stronger the correction, the better the buying opportunity. The markets are trading in the overbought ranges, so it goes without saying that traders need to be both prudent and patient. Investors should consider waiting for the markets to let out some steam before committing new capital. Volatility is the name of the game and here to stay. From Aug of last year to the month of May, the Dow has traversed over 7000 points. It is just a matter of time before the markets let out some steam and as usual, the naysayers will come screaming out of the woodwork stating the end is nigh, just as they did in Aug of 205, Jan 2016 and on countless occasions before that. Despite the severe beatings they have taken over the years, they will still muster the courage to chant the same old song as stupidity seems to be in a perpetual bull market.
Take time to deliberate; but when the time for action arrives, stop thinking and go in.
Other Articles of Interest:
China launches civilized tourist program (April 29)
Cooperation essential for Nuclear Security (April 23)