Transcript of a conversation with Sol and traders from all the four corners of the World, 10th Jan 2004
jay80888
(9:38:07 AM): Good morning everyone. testing.
jay80888
(9:38:22 AM): works great
judyinvestor
(9:38:30 AM): Jay?
jay80888
(9:38:39 AM): yes?
judyinvestor
(9:38:41 AM): you are bright yellow on my screen.
judyinvestor
(9:38:45 AM): yellow
judyinvestor
(9:38:51 AM): anyone else have that?
(9:38:57
AM) shauntyndaleb has entered the room.
benkeytrade
(9:39:00 AM): no
judyinvestor
(9:39:03 AM): OK
judyinvestor
(9:39:10 AM): I can't even read it.
jay80888
(9:39:10 AM): I think it has to do with your own setting.
shauntyndaleb
(9:39:15 AM): hi Sol and thx
shauntyndaleb
(9:39:18 AM): hi all
judyinvestor
(9:39:19 AM): how do I change it?
Allies1111
(9:39:27 AM): Hi shaun
shauntyndaleb
(9:39:28 AM): nice to see u all
douseethelight
(9:39:37 AM): yes nice to see everyone
douseethelight
(9:39:46 AM): but the weather is not so great
judyinvestor
(9:39:53 AM): Brrr.
judyinvestor
(9:40:00 AM): How can you stand it?
shauntyndaleb
(9:40:14 AM): Yes, sorry to hear that - coldest on record?
douseethelight
(9:40:15 AM): great difficulty
douseethelight
(9:40:26 AM): won't be here for much longer
shauntyndaleb
(9:40:39 AM): Costa del Sol is not so bad. About 80F
douseethelight
(9:40:44 AM): very nice
shauntyndaleb
(9:40:59 AM): Florida will be similar
douseethelight
(9:41:03 AM): yes
benkeytrade
(9:41:17 AM): It has been about -40c for the 2 weeks in my area
RMarchetta
(9:41:32 AM): Thickens the blood
shauntyndaleb
(9:41:42 AM): Friends so we’re mad to consider Canada
douseethelight
(9:41:47 AM): very
douseethelight
(9:41:53 AM): unless u like cold weather
douseethelight
(9:41:58 AM): but Canadians are nice people
douseethelight
(9:42:04 AM): so it makes up for the weather
shauntyndaleb
(9:42:12 AM): Yes, very civilized society
benkeytrade
(9:42:14 AM): you got that right
shauntyndaleb
(9:42:47 AM): Spaniards are nice too, without the rattlesnakes and grizzlies
judyinvestor
(9:44:22 AM): I hear that near Toronto it doesn't get very cold.
Allies1111
(9:44:44 AM): http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ti/2004/0116.html
shauntyndaleb
(9:44:54 AM): Calgary was -25 last week
Allies1111
(9:44:57 AM): Sol said to read this
benkeytrade
(9:44:59 AM): it still does just less snow
judyinvestor
(9:45:03 AM): OK, thanks.
judyinvestor
(9:45:09 AM): Is that one of your articles?
Allies1111
(9:45:11 AM): now so that everyone is familiar
Allies1111
(9:45:31 AM): apparently
judyinvestor
(9:45:39 AM): Great, Alan!
Allies1111
(9:45:54 AM): sol added my latest piece to his latest piece
judyinvestor
(9:46:50 AM): very good.
judyinvestor
(9:47:45 AM): come on, ABP, break that resistance.
judyinvestor
(9:47:49 AM): Go go go.
douseethelight
(9:48:38 AM): okay i will be back in 15 minutes
douseethelight
(9:48:44 AM): in case you all are not aware
douseethelight
(9:48:49 AM): i am sol behind this name
douseethelight
(9:48:53 AM): just going to make some coffee
douseethelight
(9:48:55 AM): and be back
judyinvestor
(9:49:00 AM): good morning Sol.
jay80888
(9:49:15 AM): Great article. Are
gold shares going to crash further?? How
low can they go?
judyinvestor
(9:49:46 AM): anyone think they know?
Allies1111
(9:49:58 AM): gold typically does a 50% retracement
judyinvestor
(9:50:12 AM): interesting.
jay80888
(9:50:31 AM): mining shares like 80%? :-(
Allies1111
(9:50:42 AM): no
Allies1111
(9:50:48 AM): 50 is tops
judyinvestor
(9:51:04 AM): I am aiming for the 200 day ema on the stocks I get into.]
jay80888
(9:51:31 AM): is there a possibility that gold bull market is over for now?
benkeytrade
(9:51:48 AM): so should we get out of gold stocks completely and wait for XAU to
get around the 200 dma
judyinvestor
(9:52:37 AM): I don't think that right now you should dump a bunch of gold
shares.
judyinvestor
(9:52:44 AM): Do you, Alan.
Allies1111
(9:52:45 AM): Sinclair say sell a third into strength
jay80888
(9:52:51 AM): do you have any downside target on HUI or NEM?
judyinvestor
(9:52:54 AM): this is not strength.
Allies1111
(9:52:58 AM): strength is over
Allies1111
(9:53:21 AM): so if u'r in
Allies1111
(9:53:30 AM): hold on tight
jay80888
(9:53:53 AM): would you short mining shares on bounce from panic situation
yesterday?
judyinvestor
(9:54:45 AM): A little late for a short in my opinion.
Have to watch the dollar.
(9:55:53
AM) RMBluemel1 has entered the room.
jay80888
(9:56:07 AM): I agree. long term gold investors are buying in a little below
these levels.
judyinvestor
(9:56:45 AM): Welcome RM
douseethelight
(9:56:53 AM): I think we can start so lets work out some structure here
douseethelight
(9:57:00 AM): if the questions start coming to fast
douseethelight
(9:57:03 AM): alan will moderate
RMBluemel1
(9:57:11 AM): Thanks Judy
douseethelight
(9:57:26 AM): in other words you will have to direct questions to alan
RMarchetta
(9:57:26 AM): Just finished reading...very interesting, good job. Hi, all.
douseethelight
(9:57:31 AM): and he can then redirect them
douseethelight
(9:57:36 AM): morning everyone
douseethelight
(9:58:05 AM): okay well first of all i hope no one is shorting the market unless
it is for very short term gains
douseethelight
(9:58:15 AM): and with very tight stops, if you go past this
douseethelight
(9:58:27 AM): its not that you might lose
you will lose
douseethelight
(9:58:49 AM): so off to questions fire away
douseethelight
(9:58:52 AM): who wants to go first
jay80888
(9:58:59 AM): Thanks for this discussion meeting, Sol
douseethelight
(9:59:12 AM): u r more than welcome
benkeytrade
(9:59:42 AM): do you think small caps is the way to go for 2004
douseethelight
(9:59:58 AM): when u r in a bull market
jay80888
(10:00:00 AM): Is this gold correction sharp and short or long and steady
decline?
RMarchetta
(10:00:03 AM): Seems gold and shares of gold are on everyone's mind.
arvilgar
(10:00:05 AM): do you have any downside target on the Dow by your cycle analysis
douseethelight
(10:00:10 AM): especially this type of bull mkt small caps are the way to go
douseethelight
(10:00:18 AM): we have a selective bull market
Allies1111
(10:00:23 AM): Sol, how quickly will the dow run after the correction
douseethelight
(10:00:27 AM): its not your regular type, its a traders bull market
douseethelight
(10:00:39 AM): so as they masses start to pile in they will jump into
douseethelight
(10:00:41 AM): small caps
douseethelight
(10:00:49 AM): because they seem to look affordable
jay80888
(10:00:54 AM): another 1000 points up in Dow and is it all over???
(10:01:05
AM) mvingion has entered the room.
douseethelight
(10:01:10 AM): okay lets hold while i catch up
douseethelight
(10:01:13 AM): with the questions
douseethelight
(10:01:27 AM): the gold correction
judyinvestor
(10:01:27 AM): There are a couple of leveraged small cap index funds in Rydex
and Profunds groups if anyone is interested.
douseethelight
(10:01:33 AM): could end up being very very severe
douseethelight
(10:01:38 AM): i am not ready to make that call yet
douseethelight
(10:01:47 AM): however i would not be buying gold stocks now
douseethelight
(10:01:50 AM): and have not been buying them
douseethelight
(10:02:04 AM): the dollar appears ready to rally if this rally is strong
douseethelight
(10:02:21 AM): gold is going to get hit hard, which will provide another mouth
watering opportunity to load up
douseethelight
(10:02:32 AM): it is interesting to note the gold stocks predicted the decline
in bullion
douseethelight
(10:02:39 AM): they started to correct 2 weeks in advance
douseethelight
(10:02:44 AM): so they will lead the way up
douseethelight
(10:02:55 AM): watch for a bottoming sign in gold stocks
douseethelight
(10:03:18 AM): next question
benkeytrade
(10:03:20 AM): do you mean we should hold gold stocks
douseethelight
(10:03:24 AM): is more like a statement
douseethelight
(10:03:31 AM): actually everyone should have two portfolios
douseethelight
(10:03:38 AM): one trading one hold till the trend is over
jay80888
(10:03:39 AM): would you short gold stock on a bounce from the panic situ
yesterday?
douseethelight
(10:03:51 AM): the hold till the trend is over portfolio
douseethelight
(10:03:58 AM): you should not even bother looking at
douseethelight
(10:03:59 AM): all
douseethelight
(10:04:06 AM): but if you must look at it once a month
douseethelight
(10:04:10 AM): or once every 3 months
douseethelight
(10:04:18 AM): the trading portfolio
douseethelight
(10:04:27 AM): you should more or less sell your gold stocks in this portfolio
douseethelight
(10:04:36 AM): gold stocks being one everyone minds
douseethelight
(10:04:39 AM): well that is true
douseethelight
(10:04:44 AM): i use mass psychology at lot
douseethelight
(10:04:55 AM): it is interesting to note that Yahoo has started to advertise
douseethelight
(10:05:00 AM): gold mining companies
douseethelight
(10:05:05 AM): i view that as a huge negative
judyinvestor
(10:05:08 AM): Yeah.
douseethelight
(10:05:10 AM): they are getting to cocky
(10:05:18
AM) alll2go has entered the room.
douseethelight
(10:05:18 AM): so they will be hammered soon
douseethelight
(10:05:27 AM): for the next question
douseethelight
(10:05:30 AM): 1000 point rally or not
douseethelight
(10:05:45 AM): it is hard to pin point exactly where we will heard
douseethelight
(10:05:47 AM): head i mean
douseethelight
(10:05:56 AM): but we have already hit my first two targets very fast
douseethelight
(10:06:01 AM): the next one is 11,400
douseethelight
(10:06:08 AM): and the extreme one is 11,700
douseethelight
(10:06:12 AM): could we get there yes
douseethelight
(10:06:19 AM): if the masses get into a frenzy stage
douseethelight
(10:06:25 AM): they could take it there very fast
douseethelight
(10:06:41 AM): Alan your question
douseethelight
(10:06:50 AM): after we correct how fast do we go up
douseethelight
(10:06:58 AM): well on hourly cycles we already corrected
douseethelight
(10:07:05 AM): when we hit 10,400 and something
douseethelight
(10:07:09 AM): and they issued a buy
douseethelight
(10:07:12 AM): two days ago
douseethelight
(10:07:23 AM): the next target roughly is 10,650
douseethelight
(10:07:31 AM): -10,700 plus or minus
douseethelight
(10:07:38 AM): 50 points i am looking at this very fast
douseethelight
(10:08:03 AM): shorting gold stocks
douseethelight
(10:08:06 AM): very very bad idea
douseethelight
(10:08:11 AM): unless you are able to monitor
douseethelight
(10:08:16 AM): the market
douseethelight
(10:08:26 AM): and a very familiar with TA
douseethelight
(10:08:34 AM): and are able to control the greed impulse
douseethelight
(10:08:39 AM): to chase more profits
douseethelight
(10:08:43 AM): if you plan on shorting
douseethelight
(10:08:52 AM): decide how much you are looking to extract from the short now
douseethelight
(10:09:01 AM): and close it as soon as you hit that target
douseethelight
(10:09:05 AM): if you change that target
douseethelight
(10:09:11 AM): as the trade develops
douseethelight
(10:09:13 AM): you will lose
douseethelight
(10:09:22 AM): most people do not have the discipline to close shorts
douseethelight
(10:09:28 AM): at the suggested targets
douseethelight
(10:09:36 AM): and hence end up getting killed and have to cover at a loss
douseethelight
(10:09:48 AM): so best play is take it easy and don’t short
douseethelight
(10:09:56 AM): the market is in a bullish phase
douseethelight
(10:10:06 AM): when in a bullish phase you use pull back to go long
douseethelight
(10:10:19 AM): shorting is not the way to go
douseethelight
(10:10:22 AM): when the phase changes
douseethelight
(10:10:29 AM): then we will use run ups to look for shorts
douseethelight
(10:10:43 AM): until then if you like having a stable blood pressure
douseethelight
(10:10:47 AM): and hair on your head
douseethelight
(10:10:50 AM): stay away from shorting
douseethelight
(10:11:13 AM): okay i think i
answered all the posted question
douseethelight
(10:11:14 AM): s
douseethelight
(10:11:18 AM): so we can take another 3-4
Allies1111
(10:11:24 AM): will the volitity get worse
douseethelight
(10:11:27 AM): someone keep note of the questions
jay80888
(10:11:28 AM): Is there a potential for 1987 type mania for stocks?
Any opportunity ot short stocks when we get to 11700? Are we heading for
a grand cycle type bear market to 4000?
douseethelight
(10:11:30 AM): just in case i forget
douseethelight
(10:11:48 AM): the volatility as we rise up and more people jump in
douseethelight
(10:11:51 AM): yes it will get worse
douseethelight
(10:11:59 AM): we will get what appears to be strong fast corrections
douseethelight
(10:12:03 AM): convincing the bears
douseethelight
(10:12:06 AM): that its time to load up
douseethelight
(10:12:14 AM): and they will be rewarded with severe pain
douseethelight
(10:12:30 AM): when you see the bears finally give up and throw their hands and
heads up in frustration
douseethelight
(10:12:38 AM): will be the time for us to slowly build short positions
douseethelight
(10:12:51 AM): when i go short i am looking to make 500-1000%
douseethelight
(10:12:55 AM): on certain options trades
douseethelight
(10:13:07 AM): until that time frame i don't want to waste my time
RMarchetta
(10:13:20 AM): Question: The HUI is almost 3 points lower than it was on
11/17/03. Dollar is nearly 4.5 lower, and gold has only added $17 since then.
Couldn't a case be made that we're in a trading range now or consolidation?
douseethelight
(10:13:21 AM): or energy chasing 10-20% gains and having 60% more stress
douseethelight
(10:13:58 AM): the way we
douseethelight
(10:14:08 AM): look at the market is entirely different from most people
douseethelight
(10:14:14 AM): i for one do not look
douseethelight
(10:14:19 AM): for certain retracement points or
douseethelight
(10:14:23 AM): certain key levels to be hit
douseethelight
(10:14:26 AM): before i buy
douseethelight
(10:14:34 AM): what i do first is look for patterns
douseethelight
(10:14:40 AM): and cycles
douseethelight
(10:14:51 AM): then we wait for our indicators to all line up
douseethelight
(10:14:55 AM): so let me give you an example
douseethelight
(10:14:58 AM): gold could move from
douseethelight
(10:15:05 AM): say a high of almost 430
douseethelight
(10:15:08 AM): to 390
douseethelight
(10:15:13 AM): which is really nothing
douseethelight
(10:15:20 AM): but if the indicators issue a buy
douseethelight
(10:15:22 AM): then i will buy
douseethelight
(10:15:30 AM): i don’t care whether the move is small or large
douseethelight
(10:15:37 AM): that is not how we use our indicators
douseethelight
(10:15:41 AM): after the indicators issue a buy
douseethelight
(10:15:48 AM): i visually look at each stock
douseethelight
(10:15:50 AM): or index
douseethelight
(10:16:01 AM): via esoteric cycles and esoteric pattern
douseethelight
(10:16:03 AM): s
douseethelight
(10:16:11 AM): to determine if they are ready to take a position in
douseethelight
(10:16:13 AM): and that’s it
douseethelight
(10:16:21 AM): we never really care about fundamentals
douseethelight
(10:16:32 AM): and we do not obsess about key price zones
douseethelight
(10:16:41 AM): if a stock is going to move up it will break any price zone
douseethelight
(10:16:52 AM): and if it is going to move down it will crash through all support
douseethelight
(10:16:56 AM): at some point in time
douseethelight
(10:17:22 AM): we do not like to wait for the so called support lines to be
broken or resistance lines to be taken out before we take or exit a position
douseethelight
(10:17:32 AM): what we are looking at is the beginning phase of a huge move up
douseethelight
(10:17:41 AM): or a huge move down and then we lock and load as they say
douseethelight
(10:17:50 AM): and wait for the indicators to start boiling
douseethelight
(10:17:58 AM): in the oversold or overbought zones
douseethelight
(10:18:08 AM): in reality our philosophy is very simple
douseethelight
(10:18:15 AM): buy very cheap and sell very high
douseethelight
(10:18:20 AM): sell very high and close very low
douseethelight
(10:19:02 AM): next question
douseethelight
(10:19:09 AM): those that are silent please
douseethelight
(10:19:14 AM): if you have a question fire away
jay80888
(10:19:23 AM): recently interest rate has been dropping.
ny significance?
jay80888
(10:19:38 AM): shocked some bears
Allies1111
(10:20:36 AM): with gold the leverage is high in relation to stocks, do u think
the masses can handle the volatility or will they get plucked again and again
jay80888
(10:20:51 AM): great explanations
of your approach, by the way, Sol
douseethelight
(10:21:17 AM): if u look at one of our older market updates
douseethelight
(10:21:26 AM): i predicted that interest rates would start to drop
douseethelight
(10:21:33 AM): in fact i suggest a trade
douseethelight
(10:21:38 AM): under the high risk section
douseethelight
(10:21:43 AM): for people to go long bonds
douseethelight
(10:21:50 AM): just as we suggested to go long natural gas
douseethelight
(10:21:53 AM): under 4.80
douseethelight
(10:21:58 AM): that trade made thousands
douseethelight
(10:22:04 AM): as natural gas went as high as 7
douseethelight
(10:22:14 AM): bonds is a short term play so eventually
douseethelight
(10:22:31 AM): we will start to slowly see higher rates
douseethelight
(10:22:44 AM): as for the masses holding their gold stocks
judyinvestor
(10:22:48 AM): You predicted a counter-trend dollar rally too.
douseethelight
(10:22:50 AM): i for one hope they panic
douseethelight
(10:22:54 AM): and dump everything
douseethelight
(10:23:03 AM): at which point i will be only to happy to buy as much as i can
douseethelight
(10:23:19 AM): i would not look at my ultra long term portfolio
douseethelight
(10:23:22 AM): at all
douseethelight
(10:23:29 AM): looking at the way gold has taken off
douseethelight
(10:23:32 AM): cycles suggest
douseethelight
(10:23:43 AM): but remember gold is highly controlled so anything can happen
douseethelight
(10:23:52 AM): but they suggest the possibility of an extreme
douseethelight
(10:23:58 AM): correction is significant
douseethelight
(10:24:07 AM): simply because the gold bugs have become to cocky
douseethelight
(10:24:13 AM): and they are all holding hands
douseethelight
(10:24:19 AM): thinking they are doing something special
douseethelight
(10:24:29 AM): its at this time the slaughter process
douseethelight
(10:24:31 AM): begins
douseethelight
(10:24:35 AM): and it can get very messy
douseethelight
(10:24:43 AM): as the gold bugs are really put into place
douseethelight
(10:25:00 AM): and understand that no investment in the world is worth putting
your whole portfolio into
douseethelight
(10:25:31 AM): misery loves company and stupidity simply demands it
douseethelight
(10:25:49 AM): so we will have a lot of stupid gold bugs watching their profits
vaporize in front of their eyes
douseethelight
(10:26:00 AM): and the weak ones will sell right at the bottom
douseethelight
(10:26:10 AM): and that is when we will be only to happen to step up and take it
all
douseethelight
(10:26:17 AM): until they we wont be buying any gold
jay80888
(10:26:17 AM): I tend to think Elliott waves are crap.
But did we have 5 waves up from 2001 bottom and ready for painful a-b-c
correction in mining shares?
douseethelight
(10:26:29 AM): till i see the gold bugs crying i wont step in to buy more
judyinvestor
(10:26:42 AM): For the Market Update people, if one of your small caps goes
down, would you advise buying more and building a larger positions?
douseethelight
(10:26:46 AM): i really no nothing about waves
douseethelight
(10:26:52 AM): accept the hand wave
douseethelight
(10:26:56 AM): when you wave good bye
douseethelight
(10:27:03 AM): i do not believe in the wave principle
douseethelight
(10:27:10 AM): it is a fully mechanical system
douseethelight
(10:27:13 AM): and therefore it must fail
Allies1111
(10:27:54 AM): a tsunami is not detectable at sea
jay80888
(10:27:55 AM): Love your answers!
RMBluemel1
(10:28:17 AM): you have already answered my question concerning the so-called
Grand Super Cycle
douseethelight
(10:29:05 AM): Judy i have always stated
douseethelight
(10:29:14 AM): one should never over invest in any one stock
judyinvestor
(10:29:25 AM): I know that.
douseethelight
(10:29:37 AM): if you happen to have more money sure
douseethelight
(10:29:42 AM): put some of it in that stock
douseethelight
(10:29:46 AM): but do not put 10k in one stock
douseethelight
(10:29:48 AM): and 1k in another
douseethelight
(10:29:51 AM): you will
douseethelight
(10:29:52 AM): lose
douseethelight
(10:30:03 AM): common sense and discipline is all that is really
douseethelight
(10:30:07 AM): required to win
judyinvestor
(10:30:08 AM): I have them evenly divided, the small cap portfolio.
douseethelight
(10:30:13 AM): if its to good to be true
douseethelight
(10:30:15 AM): then run like hell
douseethelight
(10:30:21 AM): and get a drink
douseethelight
(10:30:24 AM): and think about i
judyinvestor
(10:30:28 AM): But to build a larger position on a pullback I could buy more
shares.
judyinvestor
(10:30:47 AM): Less than the first buy.
douseethelight
(10:31:11 AM): u want me to endorse
douseethelight
(10:31:15 AM): your view of trading
douseethelight
(10:31:23 AM): as they say
douseethelight
(10:31:24 AM): do it
judyinvestor
(10:31:24 AM): It's not trading.
douseethelight
(10:31:26 AM): pay for it
douseethelight
(10:31:28 AM): and then learn from it
douseethelight
(10:31:49 AM): the answer is simple
benkeytrade
(10:31:50 AM): what is your favorite real time charting software?
douseethelight
(10:32:00 AM): at no point in time should you put more in one stock than another
douseethelight
(10:32:13 AM): I don’t use real time charting anymore
douseethelight
(10:32:18 AM): threw it out long time ago
douseethelight
(10:32:25 AM): its very good to give you a headache
douseethelight
(10:32:32 AM): other than its value is very limited
douseethelight
(10:32:46 AM): most of analysis is based on end of day and hourly data
Allies1111
(10:33:59 AM): with the relationships you chart, can you see a long term pattern
emerging
douseethelight
(10:34:11 AM): in regards to what
judyinvestor
(10:35:12 AM): Don't mean to disagree, but you advised me once that the way to
Get Rich is to build a position in a stock.
Allies1111
(10:35:14 AM): dollar gold bonds
douseethelight
(10:36:01 AM): dollar long term
douseethelight
(10:36:02 AM): dead
jay80888
(10:36:08 AM): India vs. China. India
has the Caste system tradition - with the ELITIST mentality.
In China, communism has made the country quite democratic.
Is there possibility that China is more socially advanced and more ready
to be rich?
douseethelight
(10:36:09 AM): bonds long term big trouble
douseethelight
(10:36:17 AM): gold long term going to the sun
jay80888
(10:36:22 AM): earlier than India
mvingion
(10:36:26 AM): from my experience, I've made more adding after position showed
profit rather
mvingion
(10:36:33 AM): than other way around
douseethelight
(10:36:49 AM): yes smart way
douseethelight
(10:36:51 AM): average up
douseethelight
(10:36:58 AM): look at the word carefully
douseethelight
(10:37:03 AM): every body is ready to lose
douseethelight
(10:37:07 AM): so they look to average down
douseethelight
(10:37:13 AM): no one looks forward to averaging up
douseethelight
(10:37:17 AM): as for India
douseethelight
(10:37:20 AM): its a wild card play
douseethelight
(10:37:25 AM): meaning its all or nothing
douseethelight
(10:37:32 AM): India is a very corrupt place
judyinvestor
(10:37:35 AM): That's what I meant Jay.
douseethelight
(10:37:41 AM): and that is what could blow them into hell
jay80888
(10:37:49 AM): big average down guy right here. Thanks for great advise, as usual, Sol!!!
Love it.
douseethelight
(10:37:53 AM): as for china its running huge terrible loans
douseethelight
(10:37:59 AM): so they could crash
douseethelight
(10:38:06 AM): in the short term
douseethelight
(10:38:15 AM): which would be a good opportunity to buy in
douseethelight
(10:38:24 AM): greater plays are in places that no one
douseethelight
(10:38:29 AM): was looking
douseethelight
(10:38:33 AM): for example south Africa
douseethelight
(10:38:36 AM): Botswana
judyinvestor
(10:38:39 AM): And another thing, CNBC lately talking up China and Chinese
stocks big time because the China index was up 100% last year!!!
douseethelight
(10:38:42 AM): another country in Africa
douseethelight
(10:38:52 AM): countries in eastern Europe
douseethelight
(10:38:53 AM): e
douseethelight
(10:38:59 AM): when Argentina crashed
douseethelight
(10:39:06 AM): i suggested people go in and buy property there
douseethelight
(10:39:16 AM): already those properties are up significantly
douseethelight
(10:39:22 AM): you don’t want to be where the hive is
douseethelight
(10:39:32 AM): if you read about it in the main stream news
douseethelight
(10:39:35 AM): the opportunity is over
judyinvestor
(10:39:50 AM): Or hear about it on CNBC.
jay80888
(10:40:16 AM): China expansion bubble ready to burst?
douseethelight
(10:40:25 AM): that’s the ultimate topping indicator CNBC
douseethelight
(10:40:37 AM): in their entire existence they have
douseethelight
(10:40:41 AM): an unbelievable record
douseethelight
(10:40:45 AM): and being nothing but wrong
mvingion
(10:41:05 AM): the bullishness on China is due to speculation on reminibi
revaluation
jay80888
(10:41:14 AM): Man, I should apply for a job in CNBC!
douseethelight
(10:41:15 AM): they wont revalue
douseethelight
(10:41:19 AM): its a dream
mvingion
(10:41:27 AM): the Chinese basically toying with us
douseethelight
(10:41:29 AM): china is telling America what to do now
douseethelight
(10:41:32 AM): not the other way round
judyinvestor
(10:41:35 AM): If they did, I believe their stocks would drop.
mvingion
(10:41:40 AM): we show are hand to much
douseethelight
(10:41:43 AM): they could technically drop a financial bomb in
douseethelight
(10:41:46 AM): Australia
douseethelight
(10:41:54 AM): to illustrate their power
douseethelight
(10:41:55 AM): to the US
douseethelight
(10:42:01 AM): they have enough aussie paper
jay80888
(10:42:07 AM): wow!
douseethelight
(10:42:08 AM): to destroy the system if they unload it
douseethelight
(10:42:17 AM): so china is not going to negotiate
douseethelight
(10:42:32 AM): they will only re value their currency
jay80888
(10:42:32 AM): Taiwan is toast?
douseethelight
(10:42:40 AM): when they think its in their interest
douseethelight
(10:42:43 AM): the rest is just noise
Allies1111
(10:43:04 AM): the white man is living in a fool’s paradise
mvingion
(10:43:12 AM): lol
douseethelight
(10:43:14 AM): yes good points David
mvingion
(10:43:21 AM): thxs
Allies1111
(10:43:21 AM): because it worked for 2 hundred years
douseethelight
(10:43:23 AM): actually its not so much as the white man
douseethelight
(10:43:27 AM): as the ignorant man
douseethelight
(10:43:34 AM): right now, white, black yellow
Allies1111
(10:43:36 AM): does not mean it will continue
douseethelight
(10:43:41 AM): and all other shades
douseethelight
(10:43:49 AM): are living in a dream world
douseethelight
(10:44:15 AM): mega changes are in the works right now as we speak
douseethelight
(10:44:27 AM): and there is nothing that can stop them
douseethelight
(10:44:31 AM): slow them down maybe
douseethelight
(10:44:34 AM): but stop them impossible
Allies1111
(10:44:48 AM): are you saying that the structures we live under are
unsustainable
RMBluemel1
(10:45:01 AM): so gold and silver are the only hope?
douseethelight
(10:45:04 AM): i don’t like dealing
douseethelight
(10:45:14 AM): in gloom and doom predictions
douseethelight
(10:45:22 AM): those are best left to the witch doctors
Allies1111
(10:45:27 AM): haha
douseethelight
(10:45:27 AM): or wall street analysts
douseethelight
(10:45:33 AM): what I am saying is this
douseethelight
(10:45:37 AM): technically
douseethelight
(10:45:42 AM): if I wanted to
douseethelight
(10:45:45 AM): but I wont do it
douseethelight
(10:45:50 AM): because I have nothing to prove
douseethelight
(10:45:57 AM): one could not invest one dollar in gold
douseethelight
(10:46:00 AM): and still beat
douseethelight
(10:46:08 AM): anyone who invested in gold as it went all the way
douseethelight
(10:46:08 AM): up
douseethelight
(10:46:16 AM): so its not about making money
douseethelight
(10:46:24 AM): so much as how much do u have to suffer to make it
douseethelight
(10:46:37 AM): i don’t want to increase my stress levels
to make a few extra points
douseethelight
(10:46:43 AM): its not worth it
douseethelight
(10:46:51 AM): i want to actually be able to spend time reading
douseethelight
(10:46:54 AM): traveling
douseethelight
(10:47:02 AM): enjoying various types of foods
douseethelight
(10:47:08 AM): so just making money and putting it in the bank
douseethelight
(10:47:13 AM): is a fools dream
jay80888
(10:47:21 AM): why do people like me ready to suffer so much
to make money? is that a
sickness?
mvingion
(10:47:24 AM): that’s too simple for most people
douseethelight
(10:47:25 AM): it becomes a vicious cycle and before you know it you are over
and dead
douseethelight
(10:47:57 AM): its called programming
jay80888
(10:48:00 AM): is it possible to find
pleasure in trading?
Allies1111
(10:48:25 AM): the pleasure is in winning
Allies1111
(10:48:36 AM): most people don't
douseethelight
(10:48:38 AM): programming to lose
jay80888
(10:48:39 AM): that explains it! LOL
douseethelight
(10:48:42 AM): school
douseethelight
(10:48:45 AM): your friends
douseethelight
(10:48:47 AM): work
douseethelight
(10:49:04 AM): they all are agents of mental destruction
douseethelight
(10:49:19 AM): not all your friends but most of them
douseethelight
(10:49:29 AM): what you have to do is evaluate what you want in life
douseethelight
(10:49:32 AM): why do u trade
douseethelight
(10:49:35 AM): what are your reasons
douseethelight
(10:49:44 AM): what do u intend to do with the money
douseethelight
(10:49:47 AM): once you get it
douseethelight
(10:49:49 AM): don’t wish for it
douseethelight
(10:49:52 AM): plan for it now
jay80888
(10:49:53 AM): to become rich is a bad reason for trading?
douseethelight
(10:49:58 AM): if you don’t plan for it means you know
alll2go
(10:50:03 AM): a certain amount of money is required to do the things you
suggest Sol
douseethelight
(10:50:05 AM): that you have no hope in hell of getting it
douseethelight
(10:50:08 AM): yes
douseethelight
(10:50:18 AM): that’s why you trade slowly but surely
RMBluemel1
(10:50:26 AM): so how do I change this programming
douseethelight
(10:50:27 AM): do not go for the long shots
jay80888
(10:50:30 AM): wow! Sol, you are
scaring me.
douseethelight
(10:50:33 AM): we all want
douseethelight
(10:50:39 AM): to get this one big winner
douseethelight
(10:50:46 AM): and yet we will take a 1000 small losers
douseethelight
(10:50:49 AM): which actually
douseethelight
(10:51:01 AM): add up to 10 big mega winners
douseethelight
(10:51:09 AM): so we will actually get one winner but it will amount to nothing
douseethelight
(10:51:13 AM): how do u change it
douseethelight
(10:51:22 AM): its a step by step procedure
douseethelight
(10:51:26 AM): just like we learnt to walk
douseethelight
(10:51:29 AM): we can re learn to think
douseethelight
(10:51:32 AM): one step at a time
douseethelight
(10:51:42 AM): first thing is to assess your priorities
douseethelight
(10:51:45 AM): what are your goals
douseethelight
(10:51:47 AM): if you have none
douseethelight
(10:51:51 AM): u r in big trouble
douseethelight
(10:51:56 AM): make sure you have some
douseethelight
(10:52:05 AM): take time to dream a little but do not get tied up in
douseethelight
(10:52:06 AM): it
douseethelight
(10:52:13 AM): when you think you have no time to relax
douseethelight
(10:52:19 AM): that is precisely when you should get on a plan
douseethelight
(10:52:20 AM): e
douseethelight
(10:52:26 AM): and fly down to a quiet spot
douseethelight
(10:52:33 AM): and do nothing but think
Allies1111
(10:52:39 AM): when I was farming
douseethelight
(10:52:40 AM): we all have time but we have decided that making money
douseethelight
(10:52:44 AM): is the most important thing
Allies1111
(10:52:45 AM): I knew that when
Allies1111
(10:52:54 AM): I started to hurt myself
Allies1111
(10:53:04 AM): it was time to rest
alll2go
(10:53:20 AM): I just want to make a living, have freedom and enjoy my kids. I
lose as much as I make so far...that’s why I joined...to improve our life and
income
douseethelight
(10:53:43 AM): you will notice that i spend a lot of time
douseethelight
(10:53:48 AM): talking about investing as a way of life
Allies1111
(10:53:49 AM): and improve the thought processes?
douseethelight
(10:53:59 AM): we are doing things at the tactical investor that on the surface
douseethelight
(10:54:04 AM): appear to have nothing to do with investing
douseethelight
(10:54:07 AM): but in reality
douseethelight
(10:54:13 AM): if you do not invest in yourself
douseethelight
(10:54:18 AM): you are destined to lose
douseethelight
(10:54:25 AM): doomed to lose is a better way of putting it
douseethelight
(10:54:30 AM): that is why 90% lose
douseethelight
(10:54:41 AM): because they have not taken the time to invest in themselves
douseethelight
(10:54:44 AM): i put this question to you
jay80888
(10:54:48 AM): Sol, my greatest regret is not finding you earlier.
I truly appreciate your insights. I
think they are invaluable.
douseethelight
(10:54:52 AM): finally you make the million dollars you wanted
douseethelight
(10:55:00 AM): you are rich beyond
douseethelight
(10:55:07 AM): beyond your wildest dreams
douseethelight
(10:55:11 AM): you have everything money can buy
douseethelight
(10:55:18 AM): the next week the doctor tells you
douseethelight
(10:55:27 AM): you have cancer you only have 3 weeks left
douseethelight
(10:55:37 AM): the reason you have cancer is because you failed to take care of
yourself
douseethelight
(10:55:48 AM): you failed to invest in the one thing that really mattered the
most
douseethelight
(10:55:50 AM): yourself
douseethelight
(10:55:57 AM): you did everything the wrong way
douseethelight
(10:56:01 AM): now is it worth
douseethelight
(10:56:02 AM): it
douseethelight
(10:56:05 AM): can you say you won
douseethelight
(10:56:09 AM): no you lost miserably
douseethelight
(10:56:19 AM): you finally have what you want but you cannot live to enjoy it
douseethelight
(10:56:30 AM): there fore make sure you understand the word desperate
douseethelight
(10:56:50 AM): least your are forced into situation
where it has to seared into your forehead
douseethelight
(10:57:03 AM): we are not hear just to make money but to do the most we can and
the best we can
douseethelight
(10:57:08 AM): with the little we have
douseethelight
(10:57:12 AM): if you take this thinking
douseethelight
(10:57:15 AM): you can but only win
douseethelight
(10:57:23 AM): u never fail until you give up
douseethelight
(10:57:38 AM): until then every failure is to be viewed as stepping stone to
success
douseethelight
(10:57:48 AM): i cannot emphasize how important it is that
douseethelight
(10:57:56 AM): you spend time learning to understand yourself
douseethelight
(10:58:08 AM): getting to care about yourself and treating yourself with respect
douseethelight
(10:58:14 AM): the respect that you deserve
douseethelight
(10:58:19 AM): for if you cannot respect yourself
douseethelight
(10:58:28 AM): no one will or even bother to attempt to do something that
douseethelight
(10:58:32 AM): you have completely failed to do
Allies1111
(10:58:43 AM): the definition of experience that i like
Allies1111
(10:58:57 AM): is when you can recognize that
Allies1111
(10:59:14 AM): you have made the same mistake again
benkeytrade
(10:59:20 AM): I’ve been at the calmest of my short trading carrier since I
got into mkt update...your style and commentary just transformed me in a more
relaxed and confident trader...I’m not going for the homerun anymore and enjoy
every moment of
douseethelight
(10:59:36 AM): thank you but
jay80888
(10:59:40 AM): I love what you said about best things in life being free or
little cost. I thought about that
as gold shares collapsed. It really
helped.
douseethelight
(10:59:50 AM): you deserve credit because u decided to implement suggested
changes
douseethelight
(10:59:55 AM): so its not a one way street
douseethelight
(11:00:02 AM): only a fool claims to be a god
douseethelight
(11:00:06 AM): and only god makes fools
RMBluemel1
(11:00:34 AM): thanks for your time and insights
douseethelight
(11:00:53 AM): since we have more people than i thought i will stick around for
another 30 minutes
Allies1111
(11:01:06 AM): cool
douseethelight
(11:01:08 AM): as the market updates will not be as lengthy as before
mvingion
(11:01:14 AM): appreciate that
douseethelight
(11:01:15 AM): i mean i will be doing less
douseethelight
(11:01:23 AM): philosophizing
jay80888
(11:01:27 AM): Keep sharing. This
is the best hour I spent in a long, long time
douseethelight
(11:01:44 AM): its only good because we all made it good
douseethelight
(11:01:52 AM): nothing great is ever done or achieved alone
douseethelight
(11:02:11 AM): you might succeed in inventing something
douseethelight
(11:02:17 AM): but for it to be appreciated it has to be shared
douseethelight
(11:02:24 AM): so if you invent the best computer in the world
douseethelight
(11:02:26 AM): and hide it
douseethelight
(11:02:30 AM): its totally useless
douseethelight
(11:02:53 AM): no one will know about it, no one will thank you and you will be
in the same place u were
douseethelight
(11:02:57 AM): before
douseethelight
(11:03:08 AM): to move up is always confused with the concept of money
douseethelight
(11:03:18 AM): the day you realize that you know absolutely nothing
douseethelight
(11:03:22 AM): that you are nothing
douseethelight
(11:03:25 AM): and will always be nothing
douseethelight
(11:03:34 AM): but are someone who is trying to be someone and something
douseethelight
(11:03:38 AM): is the day everything will work for you
douseethelight
(11:03:46 AM): when you stop chasing
douseethelight
(11:03:55 AM): and desperately trying to get things they elude you
douseethelight
(11:04:38 AM): we will email everyone a transcript
douseethelight
(11:04:41 AM): of this conversation
douseethelight
(11:04:46 AM): as many of the others
douseethelight
(11:04:58 AM): are working and its not fair that just because they have to work
they
douseethelight
(11:05:02 AM): should not get the info
douseethelight
(11:05:52 AM): Alan can speak a bit about trading
alll2go
(11:05:53 AM): a lonely heart wandering free, a hungering aching thing to be, a
groveling shadow an anguished soul, is that the ultimate and only goal?
douseethelight
(11:06:09 AM): he knew nothing a year ago
douseethelight
(11:06:10 AM): no
jay80888
(11:06:15 AM): do fundamental convictions create dangerous prejudice?
People may hold on to mining shares while collapsing till pain gets
stronger than their funda convictions?
douseethelight
(11:06:20 AM): you should never grovel
alll2go
(11:06:22 AM): Not if you make some money and leave it to your kids
douseethelight
(11:06:25 AM): u should never beg
douseethelight
(11:06:29 AM): you should never look down
douseethelight
(11:06:39 AM): u should never stop believing in yourself
douseethelight
(11:06:51 AM): you should never accept that someone is better than you
douseethelight
(11:06:53 AM): if they tell you that
douseethelight
(11:07:00 AM): fight till the end to prove them
douseethelight
(11:10:01 AM): if they decide to attack me tomorrow
benkeytrade
(11:10:02 AM): he who is nobody is somebody!
douseethelight
(11:10:10 AM): or say i am no one now, it wont matter
douseethelight
(11:10:18 AM): because my perception of myself
douseethelight
(11:10:20 AM): never changed
douseethelight
(11:10:48 AM): that’s why when people fight so hard to be someone they usually
get to be someone for a little while
douseethelight
(11:10:52 AM): but then fall down to being no one again
douseethelight
(11:10:57 AM): and the fall is hard to take
Allies1111
(11:11:05 AM): the power of positive thinking is truly amazing
douseethelight
(11:11:08 AM): i have no where to fall i am on flat stable road
douseethelight
(11:11:30 AM): its also the theory
of paradoxes
douseethelight
(11:11:36 AM): you get that which you do not chase
douseethelight
(11:11:38 AM): but seek
douseethelight
(11:11:41 AM): seeking the truth
douseethelight
(11:11:44 AM): seeking riches
douseethelight
(11:11:46 AM): is all fine
douseethelight
(11:11:50 AM): because you have a goal
jay80888
(11:11:57 AM): what is the difference? Between seeking and chasing?
douseethelight
(11:11:58 AM): chasing is not fine its an act of desperation
douseethelight
(11:12:06 AM): seeking means you have a mission
douseethelight
(11:12:16 AM): you are willing to take the time to learn and understand
douseethelight
(11:12:26 AM): the tools and equipment you
douseethelight
(11:12:35 AM): will need for this journey
douseethelight
(11:12:43 AM): chasing is simply jumping in your car
douseethelight
(11:12:54 AM): and going about trying to get something like a mad man with no
plan
douseethelight
(11:13:00 AM): and only one thought i need it
douseethelight
(11:13:02 AM): and i deserve it
douseethelight
(11:13:12 AM): that which is not planned for will never
douseethelight
(11:13:13 AM): occur
jay80888
(11:13:44 AM): name it and claim it? LOL
judyinvestor
(11:14:17 AM): The ZEN trader.
douseethelight
(11:14:41 AM): you should strive to do the things in life
douseethelight
(11:14:44 AM): that bring you peace
douseethelight
(11:14:53 AM): and not live up to someone else’s
douseethelight
(11:14:57 AM): expectations
douseethelight
(11:15:03 AM): or what society deems
douseethelight
(11:15:08 AM): adequate
douseethelight
(11:15:14 AM): so what i am trying to say
douseethelight
(11:15:20 AM): is there is nothing wrong one can really do
douseethelight
(11:15:24 AM): if one takes time to think about
douseethelight
(11:15:25 AM): it
judyinvestor
(11:15:42 AM): There is always a way -- Louise Hay.
douseethelight
(11:15:43 AM): if you decide that dedicating your life to digging graves
douseethelight
(11:15:46 AM): is what you want to do
douseethelight
(11:15:52 AM): that is perfectly
douseethelight
(11:15:54 AM): normal and fine
douseethelight
(11:15:58 AM): as long as you are okay with it
douseethelight
(11:16:30 AM): Judy abp
jay80888
(11:16:30 AM): Should I continue with trading despite all the pain it brought
me? is it worth it?
douseethelight
(11:16:33 AM): just took out resistance
douseethelight
(11:16:36 AM): as i told you it would
douseethelight
(11:16:39 AM): its now at 1.75
douseethelight
(11:16:49 AM): what must go up will go up till it stops going up
douseethelight
(11:16:50 AM): lol
judyinvestor
(11:16:51 AM): I know.
judyinvestor
(11:17:02 AM): I am still a silly person who watches a daily chart.
judyinvestor
(11:17:15 AM): You used to day trade futures.
Why did you stop?
douseethelight
(11:18:02 AM): I actually care about my body
douseethelight
(11:18:19 AM): and my body did not like futures, stocks
douseethelight
(11:18:21 AM): and writing
douseethelight
(11:18:24 AM): and trading currencies
douseethelight
(11:18:31 AM): so i could trade futures and stocks etc
judyinvestor
(11:18:34 AM): too much, I know.
douseethelight
(11:18:37 AM): but i would have to stop writing
douseethelight
(11:18:40 AM): so i made a choice
douseethelight
(11:18:43 AM): take the money
douseethelight
(11:18:46 AM): or take some joy
douseethelight
(11:18:54 AM): fortunately joy won
judyinvestor
(11:19:03 AM): Yes.
douseethelight
(11:19:35 AM): otherwise i would have not had time to write a single article
douseethelight
(11:19:50 AM): and gold eagle and all the other sites would never know who i was
douseethelight
(11:20:03 AM): i sometimes don't think my coming out of hiding
douseethelight
(11:20:06 AM): was such a good idea
douseethelight
(11:20:08 AM): but its to late
douseethelight
(11:20:14 AM): to cry over spilt milk
douseethelight
(11:20:21 AM): so one has to live with it and make the best of it
mvingion
(11:20:49 AM): be careful of what you pursue you jus might get it
judyinvestor
(11:21:02 AM): I believe you are extremely intelligent and appreciate all of the
help you have given me and others.
douseethelight
(11:21:07 AM): yes well in my case i did not want it so the paradox
douseethelight
(11:21:11 AM): theory kicked in
jay80888
(11:21:14 AM): price of fame? At
least you are not as well known - say as Sinclair or that indian astrology guy.
douseethelight
(11:21:17 AM): you get that which u do not seek
douseethelight
(11:21:27 AM): sorry chase
mvingion
(11:21:33 AM): true
douseethelight
(11:21:52 AM): ironically
douseethelight
(11:21:59 AM): the less i want to be known
douseethelight
(11:22:10 AM): the more known i get
douseethelight
(11:22:23 AM): oh well such is the bitter sweet pill of life
mvingion
(11:22:37 AM): that’s are culture, why shows like celebrities uncensored are
so popular
alll2go
(11:22:50 AM): sorry to change subject. what’s up with gold all of a sudden?
it just spiked while we were talking it touched 405 and bounced
douseethelight
(11:23:09 AM): the powers to be are probably mounting an attack
jay80888
(11:23:15 AM): 50 day moving average bounce?
douseethelight
(11:23:17 AM): with gold priced in Rands
douseethelight
(11:23:25 AM): it is 125 dollars lower than Feb. 2003
douseethelight
(11:23:28 AM): Feb. 2003
douseethelight
(11:23:36 AM): gold was about 300-330
douseethelight
(11:23:42 AM): so add 125
douseethelight
(11:23:46 AM): to 300 you get 425
douseethelight
(11:23:49 AM): to 455
douseethelight
(11:23:57 AM): this is where they will mount an attack as the
douseethelight
(11:24:02 AM): advantage they created
jay80888
(11:24:08 AM): computing market averages in rand, etc.
is that really meaningful? Isn’t
dollar the main story?
douseethelight
(11:24:08 AM): loses its value
douseethelight
(11:24:23 AM): main because you have been told to think so
douseethelight
(11:24:28 AM): nothing is important
douseethelight
(11:24:35 AM): if you are going to assign a value
douseethelight
(11:24:41 AM): either do it equally
douseethelight
(11:24:46 AM): or say that they all are useless
douseethelight
(11:24:51 AM): in reality
douseethelight
(11:24:57 AM): all currencies are garbage
douseethelight
(11:25:10 AM): so we should treat them all with equal disrespect
douseethelight
(11:25:36 AM): gold is topping
douseethelight
(11:25:44 AM): while dollar is bottoming
douseethelight
(11:25:48 AM): depending on how
douseethelight
(11:25:56 AM): carried away the big speculators get
douseethelight
(11:26:03 AM): this could be a short term fast rally
douseethelight
(11:26:09 AM): or a multi quarter rally
douseethelight
(11:27:05 AM): for this quarter
douseethelight
(11:27:09 AM): the main themes
douseethelight
(11:27:15 AM): will be oil service stocks
douseethelight
(11:27:18 AM): natural gas stocks
douseethelight
(11:27:25 AM): biotechnology
douseethelight
(11:27:30 AM): nano technology
douseethelight
(11:27:48 AM): independent oil and natural gas exploration
douseethelight
(11:27:51 AM): and drilling sectors
benkeytrade
(11:27:57 AM): do you see any new nano plays in future
shauntyndaleb
(11:27:57 AM): thx Sol and all, v interesting, hv to dash unfortunately - bye
jay80888
(11:28:01 AM): when do you see this bull market topping out?
a few more months?
douseethelight
(11:28:12 AM): u r welcome Shaun
douseethelight
(11:28:13 AM): take care
douseethelight
(11:28:27 AM): as far as nano tech goes
douseethelight
(11:28:36 AM): yes they will pull back and we will buy more